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Deep Thoughts About Groupthink. October 5, 2006. Brief History of Bad Decisions. Pearl Harbor: Advance warning of an attack: Military commanders received information about Japanese plans to attack Pearl Harbor.
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Deep Thoughts About Groupthink October 5, 2006
Brief History of Bad Decisions • Pearl Harbor: • Advance warning of an attack: Military commanders received information about Japanese plans to attack Pearl Harbor. • Intelligence lost contact with aircraft carriers moving toward Hawaii. Failed to send air reconnaissance which could have given warning. • Result: No alert was sounded until attack. Loss of 18 ships, 170 planes, 3700 lives.
Another Bad Decision • The Bay of Pigs Invasion • 1961 Kennedy and advisors tried to overthrow Castro by supporting an invasion of Cuba with 1400 CIA trained Cuban exiles. • Believed that troops could retreat to mountains that were actually on the other side of the island. Troops actually deployed in a swamp and were immediately surrounded. • Created alliance between Cuba and USSR which gave rise to the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Groupthink Defined • “The mode of thinking that persons engage in when concurrence-seeking becomes so dominant in a cohesive in-group that it tends to over-ride realistic appraisals of alternative courses of action.” Janis, 1971
Symptoms of Groupthink • Illusion of invulnerability • Many believed that the Japanese would never risk attacking the US. Admiral joked about the idea right before it happened. • Collective rationalization • President Johnson’s Tuesday lunch group spent more time justifying the Vietnam war than reflecting upon and rethinking past decisions.
Symptoms of Groupthink • Belief in inherent morality • Kennedy group knew that some cabinet members had moral reservations about invading a smaller neighboring country but these reservations were never explored. • Stereotyped views of out-groups • Kennedy group convinced themselves that Castro’s army was so weak and popular support so shallow that a single brigade could overturn the government.
Symptoms of Groupthink • Direct pressure on dissenters • People who disagree are ridiculed. Once, when President Johnson’s assistant entered the room, the president said, “Well here comes Mr. Stop the Bombing.” • Self-censorship • Following the Bay of Pigs invasion Arthur Schlesinger said, “my feelings of guilt were tempered by the knowledge that any objection would have accomplished nothing but gain me a name as a nuisance.”
Symptoms of Groupthink • Illusion of unanimity • Absence of dissent creates an illusion of unanimity. Everyone might disagree but everyone thinks that everyone else agrees. • Self-appointed ‘mindguards’ • People who protect the leader from hearing disagreeable facts. Top NASA executive who made the decision to launch never heard the engineers’ objections.
Signs of a Bad Decision Making Process • Incomplete survey of alternatives • Failure to examine risks of preferred choices. • Poor information search. • Selective bias in processing information at hand. • Failure to work out contingency plans.
Evaluating the Theory • Groupthink is a hugely influential concept • Some have argued that it has more “heuristic” than theoretical value. • Is Groupthink still a useful concept?
Illusion of invulnerability Collective rationalization Belief in inherent morality Stereotyped views of out-groups Direct pressure on dissenters Self-censorship Illusion of unanimity Self-appointed ‘mindguards’ How many symptoms does a group need to receive a groupthink “diagnosis”? Are some symptoms more important than others? Does a group experience some symptoms before others? Is each symptom unique? Or, redundant? Scrutinizing the Laundry List
Hindsight bias? Question: Once we know the outcome (e.g. It Blew Up!) can we then “spin” the reinterpret events to fit the theory? If a stupid decision turned out well, was it still groupthink?
Generalizability • What types of tasks or situations might groupthink apply to? (Beyond just decision-making?). Can groupthink be applied to everyday decisions? • Does a group need to be under threat? Janis theorized that they do.
Cohesiveness • Cohesiveness (mutual attraction for the group and its members) is central to Janis’ theory. • Can cohesiveness ever reduce groupthink? • EXAMPLE: In a cohesive group, people may be less likely to censor their opinions and more likely to dissent
Verdict on groupthink • Is groupthink a useful construct? If so, why? • Why has groupthink survived for so long when other theories have been forgotten?
