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Objective Communication, Measurement, and Cost Estimation Necessary Ingredients for Project Success and Affordability

Objective Communication, Measurement, and Cost Estimation Necessary Ingredients for Project Success and Affordability. Garry Roedler, ESEP LM Fellow INCOSE Founder IEEE Golden Core Member.

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Objective Communication, Measurement, and Cost Estimation Necessary Ingredients for Project Success and Affordability

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  1. Objective Communication, Measurement, and Cost EstimationNecessary Ingredients for Project Success and Affordability Garry Roedler,ESEP LM Fellow INCOSE Founder IEEE Golden Core Member Note: This presentation reflects the positions of the presenter and is being given from the perspective of the industry association roles held by the presenter. It does not necessarily reflect the positions held by any specific organization or his employer.

  2. Communication and Program Performance Statistics on program failures conclude: Most IT projects are failing. The predominant reason: Communication breakdown. The Standish Group CHAOS report • Reasons for project failure: • Expectation mismatch amongst stakeholders. • Improper and unclear communication with stakeholders. Global Project Management – Vote from LinkedIn • Poor communication is the reason most IT projects fail. • Unrealistic deadlines is another leading cause. Communication consistently cited as a top reason for project failure paired with expectations and estimates Web Poll – Computing Technology Industry Assoc. – 1000 respondents

  3. Elements of Objective Communication • Looks for the truth, uses hard data, tries to explain as well as predict (deterministic) • Avoids potential of multiple interpretations or misinterpretation • Unambiguous • Clarity of meaning; single interpretation • Common vocabulary – words can have multiple meanings • Void of subjectivity • Avoids personal bias; keeps out personal values (“value-free”) • “Lack of judgment” • Factual • Quantitative, over qualitative • Focus on cause and effect • Predictive – looks for predictability • Based on universal laws • Validates theory with objective methods; e.g., experiments and surveys • Applies objective research with precise measurement and data analysis Does this look like objective communication? http://dilbert.com/dyn/str_strip/000000000/00000000/0000000/000000/00000/0000/900/929/929.strip.zoom.gif Supports Objective Discussion for Affordability & Other Objectives

  4. Obstacles for Objective Communication • Psychological factors • E.g., ego, optimism/pessimism, past influences • Sociological factors • E.g., culture, peer pressure, social norms • Stake in the game • Lack of information • Lack of common experience • Lack of common vocabulary

  5. Why Objective Communication is Important in Engineering • Agreement between supplier and acquirer • Understanding the needs/requirements • Ensuring joint understanding • Team understanding of requirements • Insight to manage risks or make decisions • Not a spectator sport; participative • Understanding of decision criteria • Using predictive insight from leading indicators and risk assessments • Includes confidence in the information (i.e., uncertainty) • Progress and status

  6. Example of Ambiguity • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAG39jKi0lI

  7. Semantic Ambiguity • The English language can be ambiguous … some sample newspaper headlines: • “Lack Of Brains Hinders Research” • “Kids Make Nutritious Snacks” • “Queen Mary Having Bottom Scraped” • “Miners Refuse to Work after Death” • “Police Begin Campaign To Run Down Jaywalkers” • “Red Tape Holds Up New Bridge” • “Juvenile Court To Try Shooting Defendant” • “Panda Mating Fails; Veterinarian Takes Over” • “Astronaut Takes Blame For Gas In Spacecraft” • “Grandmother Of Eight Makes Hole In One” • “Enraged Cow Injures Farmer With Ax” • “NJ Judge to Rule on Nude Beach” Microsoft Clip Art Image 2007

  8. Syntactic Ambiguity Microsoft Clip Art Image 2007 Punctuation can cause very different meanings!

  9. Example of Subjectivity • Subjective language includes phrases such as: • Easy-to-use, user-friendly • Close quickly • High-speed, medium-sized, low-frequency (high, medium, low, large, small, …) • Best practices • Minimize, maximize, optimize • Subjective terms: • Create problems in verification • Often lead to Affordability issues • The use of these adjectives allows for multiple interpretations

  10. Example of Potential Numerical Misinterpretation Image from The World is Flat: http://salyee.wordpress.com/2010/11/06/week-11-infographics/ 10/14/12 Drug company states that a competing drug increases risk of death by 100%.

  11. Using Objective Information to Improve Program Decisions • Aids programs by providing true understanding and insight • Provides the facts and quantitative information • Focus on cause and effect • Allows predictions/estimations – built on historical data, empirical relationships, accepted principles, … • Validated through experiments, surveys, and calibration • Cannot eliminate all subjective, ambiguous information • Assumptions • Differences from historical information • Emerging information • Humans are involved

  12. How this Relates to Measurement & Cost/Schedule Estimating • Measurement is at the root of objectivity • Basis of factual information • Basis of models and estimation • Realize all information is not precise – account by using ranges and distributions, where applicable • Necessary for calibration to improve applicability • Cost/schedule estimation provides a model of a class of programs • Basis of predictions using key variables (drivers) • Developed from objective research (i.e., precise measurement and data analysis) • Provides a point of departure from what is known • But … requires verification and validation Does this look like your program? http://dilbert.com/dyn/str_strip/000000000/00000000/0000000/000000/00000/6000/300/6379/6379.strip.zoom.gif

  13. Where We Are Now Leading Indicators Cost Estimation Other “COCONuts” and Vendor Models for SW and SE … COCOMO® SE Leading Indicators Guide System Devel. Perf. Measurement Technical Measurement Standardization & Harmonization Applications / Other Guidance SEVOCAB Measurement Process Std Life Cycle Process Stds – 15288, 12207 PSM CMMI

  14. Where We Are Now

  15. Where We Are Now

  16. Where We Are Now

  17. Where We Are Now

  18. Where We Still Need To Go Leading Indicators Cost Estimation • Enhance ability to support trades • Account for more of the key decisions (e.g., Product Lines) • Better account for uncertainty • Integrated cost estimation • Full system cost estimation • Full life cycle cost estimation • Extensive piloting and usage of SELI and SDPM • Linkage of SELI to results of SE Effectiveness Survey and Risk Models • Leading Indicators for SW Applications / Other Guidance Standardization & Harmonization • Complete harmonization of System and SW • Continue to migrate to common vocabulary • Revision of PSM guidance to state of standard • Extend PSM for emerging information needs • Determine measures and cost estimation that best applies through life cycle stages and decisions

  19. Microsoft Clip Art Image 2007 QUESTIONS?

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