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Collaborative Meeting on Modeling Mercury in Freshwater Environments

Collaborative Meeting on Modeling Mercury in Freshwater Environments. Welcome!. Goals of Meeting Goals of IJC Multi-Compartment Model Development for Lake Ontario Atmospheric cycling model Fate and Transport & Bioaccumulation Modeling Human exposure modeling. Goals of Meeting.

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Collaborative Meeting on Modeling Mercury in Freshwater Environments

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  1. Collaborative Meeting on Modeling Mercury in Freshwater Environments

  2. Welcome! • Goals of Meeting • Goals of IJC Multi-Compartment Model Development for Lake Ontario • Atmospheric cycling model • Fate and Transport & Bioaccumulation Modeling • Human exposure modeling

  3. Goals of Meeting Goals of Meeting • Challenges/obstacles in multi-compartment model development • Revisit major uncertainties to be addressed • Explore opportunities for sharing data • Gambling in Niagara Falls • Opportunities for Collaboration

  4. MULTI-MEDIA MERCURY MODELING PROJECT January 19-20, 2006 Collaborative Effort: 1. USEPA, (Athens Laboratory & Dr. Elsie Sunderland) 2. NOAA (Dr. Mark Cohen) 3. Environmental & Occupational Health Sciences Institute, Rutgers (Dr. Sheng-Wei Wang)

  5. Integrated Analysis MODELING FRAMEWORK • Source-Receptor: HYSPLIT Model • Aquatic Fate and Transport: MCM/WASP Model • Bioaccumulation: BASS/EcoFate Models • Human Exposure: MENTOR Modeling System CH3Hg  Hg(II)

  6. Purpose of Study • Long-term – Tool Development • PC based multi-compartment model linking Hg emissions, aquatic cycling, bioaccumulation and human exposure • Short-term – Lake Ontario Pilot • Development of simplified media specific model • Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis • Simulations performed without dynamic linkage • Sensitivity analysis and model testing • Integrate compartmental models

  7. Multi-Media Hg Modeling System Emissions Meteorology Atmospheric Model (HYSPLIT) Linkage program at air-water interface* Aquatic Fate and Cycling Model Food Chain & Bioaccumulation Model Exposure and Health Risk Models (MENTOR)

  8. 1. Source-Receptor Modeling

  9. 2. Deposition to Fish CH3Hg  Hg(II)

  10. 3. Human Exposure Modeling

  11. *Modeling ENvironment for TOtal Risk studies incorporating the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation approach for Multiple co-occurring contaminants and Multimedia, Multipathway, Multiroute exposures (4M) MENTOR/SHEDS-4M*

  12. MENTOR modeling system *SHEDS: Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation, a methodology developed by Özkaynak and co-workers Figure adapted from Furtaw, E.J. 2001. An overview of human exposure modeling activities at the USEPA's National Research Exposure Laboratory. Toxicology and Industrial Health 17:302-314.

  13. MENTOR/SHEDS-4M evaluation case study: Oswego County, NY

  14. Cumulative Hg and MeHg Dietary Exposure Distributionsfor the Total Population of Oswego County, NYCalculated by the MENTOR/SHEDS Population Based Model Approximately 10% of the population are exposed to Hg and MeHg above the level of 2*10-3µg/kg/day through the dietary pathway (simulation period: 1 day).

  15. Fish Intake Distributions for Selected Fish Species for Two Susceptible Populations in U.S.:women 16-49 yrs of age (child-bearing age and children) • Data Source: USDA’s CSFII (1994-1996, 1998)

  16. Total Number of Consuming Occasions for Selected Fish Species Reported in Past 30 Days for Two Susceptible Populations in U.S.: women 16-49 yrs of age (child-bearing age) and children 1-5 yrs of age • Data Source: CDC’s NHANES 2001-2002

  17. Cumulative MeHg Dietary Exposure Distributions for 2 Age Groups of Oswego County, NY Calculated by the MENTOR/SHEDS-4M Population Based Model

  18. Comparison of Predicted and Observed Cumulative Distributions of MeHg Blood Concentrations from MENTOR/SHEDS-4M Calculations and NHANES-2002 Measurements

  19. Comparison of Predicted and Observed Cumulative Distributions of MeHg Hair Concentrations from MENTOR/SHEDS-4M Calculations and NHEXAS-Region V Measurements

  20. Atmospheric emissions Natural: Forest fires, volcanoes Industrial: Power plants Ground water transport Natural & industrial sources • Population Diet • Uncertainties: • Amounts consumed • Fish species consumed • Fish preparation etc. • Regional Economy • Uncertainties: • Local vs. imported fish • Pricing and availability • Processing, storage etc. • Season • Uncertainties: • Fish species • Fish maturation • Fish size etc. Dietary Ingestion • Absorption, Distribution Metabolism, Elimination and Toxicity (ADMET) Modeling • Uncertainties: • Age, gender, lifestyle differences • Physiological variability • Physicochemical and biochemical variabilities • Health status, activities • Pregnancy/nursing • Genetic susceptibilities Some Issues and Uncertainties Related to Dietary Mercury Exposure/Dose Modeling Deposition to aquatic ecosystem Hg0, Hg2+ MeHg Fish uptake of MeHg PBTK and BBDR Human Activity Environmental Modeling Modeling Modeling Target Tissue Dose Brain Kidney Breast milk Fetus / fetal brain Toxicity/Adverse Effect Neurological Renal Cardiovascular [Genomic / Cytomic]

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