Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas

1. Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 May 2011 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

2. Outline • ENSO Current Status • MJO Current Status • Monsoons Current Status • Southern Hemisphere Circulation • Rainfall & Temperature Patterns • NCEP/GFS Model Forecast

3. ENSO Current Status • General Summary: • A transition from La Niña conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions is underway across the equatorial Pacific. • Negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies persist across the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, while SSTs are now above-average in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. • Atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with La Niña remain significant. • ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to develop during May-June 2011 and continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011. During the last 4-weeks (24 Apr – 21 May 2011), equatorial SSTs were 0.5°C below average near the International Date Line, while near-average to above-average temperatures have emerged in the eastern Pacific. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

4. MJO Index -- Recent Evolution Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast • The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes • The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO • Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation. • Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength • Line colors distinguish different months RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean MJO Current Status The MJO signal weakened considerably during the previous week. The MJO signal is expected to remain week during the upcoming two weeks. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

5. Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status South America Southern Africa Australia Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/

6. 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies- Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation C C Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

7. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-average conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.

8. Australia • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

9. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly

10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly

11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly

12. Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly

13. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 23 May 2011 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly

14. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 23 May 2011 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly

15. Southern Africa • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

16. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly

17. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly

18. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly

19. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days

20. Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly

21. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 23 May 2011 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly

22. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 23 May 2011 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly

23. Brazil & Argentina • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

24. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly Brazil Argentina

25. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 15 Days Total Anomaly Brazil Argentina

26. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly Brazil Argentina

27. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days

28. Temperature (°C) - BrazilBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly

29. Temperature (°C) - ArgentinaBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly

30. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 23 May 2011 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly

31. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 23 May 2011 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly

32. Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars USDA Crop Information