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Disputed Elections and Legitimacy

Disputed Elections and Legitimacy. What comes after matters! Dr. Jeff Key AP Comparative Politics Workshop Boston, MA April 10, 2010. We invest elections with great significance … “By a democratic regime, we mean a set of institutions that allow the citizens to choose

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Disputed Elections and Legitimacy

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  1. Disputed Elections and Legitimacy What comes after matters! Dr. Jeff Key AP Comparative Politics Workshop Boston, MA April 10, 2010

  2. We invest elections with great significance … “By a democratic regime, we mean a set of institutions that allow the citizens to choose the makers of public policy in free, competitive elections…” “Countries with free and fair elections for the real policymakers and eligibility of all adults meet the minimum requirements for procedural democracy.” Almond and Powell …but give them little critical reflection. The Power of Elections

  3. What comes AFTER elections is important! • Does acceptance of election outcomes reflect legitimacy? • Even in authoritarian systems, elections facilitate participation. • What if election outcomes are challenged? • How the government responds to post-election challenges impacts its legitimacy. Elections and Legitimacy

  4. Leaders of losing parties often challenge election results and promote protests that the government must address. • Failure to stop such protests undermines the government’s ability to rule and its legitimacy. Post-election Protests & Government Response

  5. HOW the government addresses post-election protests is important. • Can it be done without coercion? • Is coercion needed? Post-election Protests and Legitimacy

  6. Institutions and processes to resolve election disputes help to absorb conflict. • Forms…election commissions or courts Post-election Remedies Matter!

  7. Percentage of eligible votes cast • Would you believe 100% participation? • Size of “gap” between winner and losers • What’s sparks protests, close races or landslides? • Reports of post-election protests and government responses • How widespread/intense are protests? • Is force is used to suppress them? • Length of time between election date and date of final declaration of winner • Is a longer period “better”? What to look for after elections…

  8. Three Cases

  9. Turnout: 59% • Winner: Filipe Calderon (35.89%) • Closest rival: Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (35.31%) • Election date: July 2 • Confirmed: September 5 by the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary (TEPJF) Mexico 2006

  10. Turnout: est. 57.5% • Winner: Amadu Yar’Adua (70%) • Closest rival: Muhammadu Buhari (18.72%) • Election date: April 21 • Confirmed: April 23 by Independent National Election Commission (INEC) Nigeria 2007

  11. Turnout: 85% • Winner: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (62.63%) • Closest rival: Mir-Hossein Mousavi (33.75%) • Election date: June 12 • Confirmed: June 29 by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (Guardian Council asked him to extend the required election complaint period an additional five days.) Iran 2009

  12. www.electionguide.org • www.ifes.org • www.iri.org/explore-our-resources/election-watch • www.ndi.org/content/elections • www.cartercenter.org/peace/democracy/observed.html#table • muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_democracy/election_watch (1990-2000 only) Useful Election Websites

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