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Natural Gas Advisory Committee

Agenda. IntroductionsDiscussion of oil markets (Sam VanVactor)Recent fuel prices and proposed forecastsPeak deliverability of gas (Dan Kirschner)Estimation of monthly natural gas prices at western hubs. Role of the Fuel Price Forecast. Determine a range of possible long-term trends in fuel price

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Natural Gas Advisory Committee

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    1. Natural Gas Advisory Committee August 15, 2008

    2. Agenda Introductions Discussion of oil markets (Sam VanVactor) Recent fuel prices and proposed forecasts Peak deliverability of gas (Dan Kirschner) Estimation of monthly natural gas prices at western hubs

    3. Role of the Fuel Price Forecast Determine a range of possible long-term trends in fuel prices Commodity cycles around the trend and short-term volatility are added to the trends in the Portfolio Model analysis Commodity costs affect resource selection, generation cost, and price of electricity Retail prices affect demand for fuels and electricity (directly through competition, indirectly through cost of generation) Address supply and deliverability for power generation

    4. Fuel Price Forecasts Fifth Power Plan (Summer 2004) Revised Council Forecast (Sept. 2007) Proposed NGAC (Aug. 2008) Draft for Sixth Power Plan (Oct. 2008)

    6. Natural Gas

    11. Example risk treatment – natural gas prices You will recall that the Council analyzed price volatility far beyond the low to high range in the yellow area using the Portfolio Model. Volatility is well illustrated by recent years natural gas prices. You will recall that the Council analyzed price volatility far beyond the low to high range in the yellow area using the Portfolio Model. Volatility is well illustrated by recent years natural gas prices.

    12. Working Natural Gas Price Forecast (2006 $ Per MMBtu at Wellhead)

    14. Total Delivery Costs

    15. World Oil Prices

    19. Working Crude Oil Price Forecasts (Imported RAQ in 2006 $ / Bbl.)

    23. Coal Prices

    24. Spot Coal Prices April 05 To April 08

    27. Working Coal Price Forecast (Powder River in 2000$/ MMBtu)

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