POL333 Populism and political parties

1. Against corruption and political dinosaurs. The Public Affairs party as anexampleof a populistpolitical party POL333 Populismandpoliticalparties

2. Outlineofthepresentation • Mainaim: Public Affairs as anexampleof a (centrist) populistpolitical party • Theoretical background: Mudde`s, Stanley`s approach to populism • Spottingpopulism: manicheanviewofpolitics, antiestablishment appeal, denigrationofelitesandvalorisationofthepeople • Context: historyofthe party, itsdiscourse, votersand role ofthe party in thepoliticalsystem

3. Public Affairs – historyofthe party • 10.9% ofvotes in theexceptional 2010 election • Froma localassociation to nationalaspiration (EP 2009 – 2,4%) • Formerwriterandpopularjournalist R. John chairmanofthe party (the most trustworthypolitician in May 2010) • Influentialpositionoftheenterpreneur Vít Bárta • Cabinetparticipationalongsidewith ODS and TOP 09 • Severalcrisesduringcabinetparticipation • Corruptionscandalwithinthe party andleavingthecoalition (split upofthe party and establishment ofthe LIDEM party) • Marginalizationofthe party (the 2013 election)

4. Spottingpopulism I – Peoplecentrism • People as „citizens“ or „ordinarypeople“ • Policymeasures not targeting a specificsocialgroup • „Our party offers a comprehensive programme, and it is not a party oriented on a particular segment of the electorate (…) And I think that it has a real chance of [wide] appeal, from youths to older citizens” (K. Klasnová) • Promotionofdirectdemocracyincludingintrapartyreferendums • „Let people decide and let’s make this grow from the bottom up. People are not stupid.”(R. John)

5. Spottingpopulism II – Anti-elitism • Self-presentationas an alternative to established political parties = „politicaldinosaurs“: • “They’re everywhere. They invade the space of every one of us. Corruption. National debts. Parasitism. Low-quality education. Shameful pensions. The dinosaurs of years past.”(The 2010 election spot of VV) • Corruptionassociated with the established parliamentary parties • „ democracy of robber barons“ • Support for Fischer caretakercabinet(expert X politiciandichotomy)

6. Spottingpopulism III – Popularsovereignty • Party ofdirectdemocracy • Directdemocracy as a chiefrecipe to remedyCzechpolitics • “The Public Affairs intend to transform the present political (non-)culture through a greater involvement of citizens in the decision-making (…)” (Electionprogrammeof VV) • Directdemocracy as a „common-sense model“ • Proposed a general referendum law, directelectionsofthe President, regionalgovernors (hejtmans) andmayors, peopleremovingofpoliticiansfrom office • Intra-party directdemocracyandelectionofleaders (registeredsupporters – Véčkaři)

7. Spottingpopulism IV – Proposals to restorepopularsovereignty • Not a clearideologicalattachment („we do not want to move to leftorright, wewant to moveforward“, R. John) • “right wing party with social sensibility” (K. Klasnová) • VV votes as „votesforcommonsense“, „a centrist party withcleversolutions“ (R. John) • Rejectingofideologicalviewoftheworldandleft-rightviewof society • Emphasis on commonsense • Simplisticpolicysolutions

10. Demographyof VV voters

11. Politicalorientationof VV voters

12. Votersofthe party - Hypothesestested • H1: The probability of a vote for VV increases in parallel with a negative perception of the economy. This perception is analysed through the indicator of dissatisfaction with the economic situation and conviction that economic issues are the most important political problems. • H2: The probability of a vote for VV increases in parallel with protest voting. Protest voting is analysed through the indicators of dissatisfaction with the political situation, lack of confidence in the Chamber of Deputies, and desire for change (cited as the main reason for party choice). • H3: The probability of a vote for VV increases in parallel with weakening party-voter links. This is analysed through voters’ feelings of proximity to a party and the time when they make their electoral decision. • H4: The probability of a vote for VV increases in parallel with the convergence of the political space, which is analysed through the degree to which voters feel parties are distinguishable from each other during the electoral campaign. • H5: The probability of a vote for VV increases in parallel with the ideological closeness between voters and VV. This is interrogated through the proximity between the two on the right-to-left axis.

13. Data andmethods (analysisof VV voters) • TheCzechNationalElection Study data • Dependentvariable – votingfor VV in the 2010 election • Independent variables (socialcharacteristics, economy, protest, party system/voters`conditions, policyvote) • Testingthemodels (logisticregression)

15. Results – analysisof VV voters • The model explains 33% ofvariation, noneofthehypothesesfullyconfirmed • Decreasing probability ofvotingfor VV amongvoterswiththehighesteducation • No impactofeconomiccrises • Votingfor VV as anexpressionofdesireforchange • Increasing probability ofvotingfor VV withlooseties to politicalparties (timeofvotedecision) • Increasing probability ofvotingfor VV withpolicycloseness to the party

16. Conclusion • VV as anexampleoftheriseofanexclusively (centrist) populistparty • Combinationofeconomicargumentswith a typicalpopulistrhetorics • Explanationoftheelectoral support of VV: lesseducated, undecided, centre-leaningvoterswithdesireforchangethepolitics in theCzechRepublic (no impactofeconomiccrises) • Changes in society/attitudesofpeople to politicsandpoliticalparties - openedspacefortherise (the 2013 elections)

17. Thankyouforyourattention.