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Explore the recent evolution, current status, and forecasts for the Asian-Australian monsoon system. Detailed information on recent rainfall patterns, prediction models, and regional climate conditions. Get insights on precipitation trends over the past 90, 30, and 7 days. Discover the atmospheric circulation, NCEP/GFS model forecasts, and anomalies in precipitation across the monsoon region. Stay informed about upcoming rainfall expectations and the transition from the Asian to the Australian monsoon. For more details, visit the Climate Prediction Center website provided.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 04, 2015 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the precipitation pattern over eastern Afghanistan, northern Pakistan, and northern (particularly Kashmir) and northcentral India was at near to slightly above normal levels for this time of the year. Rainfall was also much above normal over Borneo island. However, rainfall was below to much below normal elsewhere over southern Philippines, southeastern China across Malaysia, Indonesia and across entire northern and north central Australia.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, the precipitation over southern India, northeast India, Nepal, and Bangladesh and vicinity was normal to above normal for this time of the year. However, rainfall was much below normal over southeastern China.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, the precipitation over the entire region was at or below normal levels except over parts of Malaysia/Borneo island and along coastal regions of eastern Australia, where it was above normal.
Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, the precipitation pattern over eastern Afghanistan, northern Pakistan, and northern (particularly Kashmir) and northcentral India was at near to slightly above normal levels for this time of the year. Rainfall was also much above normal over Borneo island. However, rainfall was below to much below normal elsewhere over southern Philippines, southeastern China across Malaysia, Indonesia and across entire northern and north central Australia. For the past 30 days, the precipitation over southern India, northeast India, Nepal, and Bangladesh and vicinity was normal to above normal for this time of the year. However, rainfall was much below normal over southeastern China. In this past week, the precipitation over the entire region was at or below normal levels except over parts of Malaysia/Borneo island and along coastal regions of eastern Australia, where it was above normal. In the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting near normal to below normal rainfall over most of the monsoon region.
