Geospatial science and technology 2004-2024: Seven forecasts

1. Geospatial science and technology 2004-2024: Seven forecasts Keith C. Clarke Professor and Chair Department of Geography UC Santa Barbara kclarke@geog.ucsb.edu

2. What is the state of geospatial computing today? What are the issues today? What will geospatial computing be like in 2024? What issues will be of concern then? Seven forecasts along the way 2004 and 2024

3. Computing in 2004 • Average car hosts 50 computers (embedded computing) • PC 3GHz barrier and GB/$ approaching 1.0 • HPC approaching tens of Teraflops • GRID computing initiative at NSF • Low cost supercomputing e.g. Beowulf clusters • Mobile wireless based on 802.11x etc • Internet possibly approaching a billion nodes • Windows vs. Linux, but many more

4. Computing issues in 2004 • Building the cyberinfrastructure • The digital divide • The “where” of computing • User interfaces: The end of GUIs, WIMPs, and the desktop • Wireless internet • Who owns software in the network era?

5. Geographic information technology in 2004 • Countering industry trends • GPS mature, GLONASS, Galileo, GPS II, indoor? • GPS and GIS tightly coupled e.g. IVNS • Mobile GIS • The data fire hose • Cellular phones and location technology E-911 • New generation of space imaging • Interoperability and standards • Google search on “geographic information system”=2.97M hits

6. What will the issues be in 2024?

7. Forecast #1: Ubiquitous GIS • Computing will be ubiquitous, distributed, mobile and on-demand

8. Cyberinfrastructure • aka Grid computing • NSF Vision for next era of computing • “ integrated suite of computational engines, mass storage, networks, digital libraries and databases, sensors, software and services” (NSF, 2003). • Can include human users and the user interface • NSF (2003) Revolutionizing Science and Engineering Through Cyberinfrastructure: Report of the National Science Foundation Blue-Ribbon Advisory Panel on Cyberinfrastructure: Atkins report.

9. Cyberinfrastructure vision • Services available on demand • Independence of source • “The computer is the network”

10. Geospatial elements of the GRID: 1. GPS Source: U. Minnesota IVS Lab

11. GPS: Accurate, but multipath, etc Green: Trees Purple: Buildings Image courtesy of Kevin Knight

12. Geospatial elements of the GRID: 1. Portability

13. Forecast #2: Wearable GIS • We will wear our computers, not sit in front of them

14. Wearable GIS http://www.itmedia.co.jp/broadband/0309/18

15. UCSB Battuta project

16. Field Test Prototype: YAH, Map view, text off, perspective on

17. Field Test Prototype: YAH, Image view, text off, perspective on

18. Field testing: Track logs

19. Xybernaut Poma

20. Forecast #3: No more data problems • The National Map will be complete • The National Spatial Data Infrastructure will support the economy, government and education

21. The USGS vision of The National Map • A database, providing “public domain core geographic data about the United States and its territories that other agencies can extend, enhance, and reference as they concentrate on maintaining other data that are unique to their needs.” • Needs: • Up-to-date • Real time access • Support public safety and welfare • The Problem: Current paper maps are on average 23 years old

22. USGS Vision • Ambitious, challenging and worthwhile • Nationally consistent • Includes pointers to multiple scales and data types, e.g. Imagery • Flexible enough to be subdivided by any pertinent set of geographic units, e.g. Congressional districts, health districts, watersheds, etc. • Sets goal of rapid turnaround of map revisions (7 days)

23. Benefits (NRC Report) • “The nation has a vested interest in ensuring rapid implementation of a nationally integrated spatial database to meet national needs, including national security, environmental protection and land stewardship.” • Benefits: • Natural resources • Prevention of loss of life and property • Reduction of duplication and waste • Economic spin-offs to geospatial business community • Shared work and value enhancement to partners

24. NAS National Map Vision • Two inherent levels of the project: • (1) Nationally consistent digital map coverage maintained at one or more spatial scales • The blanket • Already exists at coarser scale (The National Atlas) • (2) Patchwork of local data with varied scale, source, accuracy, spatial extent, ownership models, resolution, thematic content, etc. • The quilt • Data are contributed by partners

25. The metaphor Independent patches, different sizes, shapes: needs coordination One weave: uniform coverage

26. The metaphor (ctd)

27. National Map Viewer

28. DOQQ plus DLG streets

29. DRG plus DLG streets

30. NLCDB plus DLG streets

31. Seamless data download

32. Other components of the NSDI (Portals, standards, services, data) • Geospatial Onestop • Geography Network • EROS Data Center • FGDC: Standards • Alexandria Digital Library • State data centers e.g. Teale in CA • MapQuest • NAVTEQ, etc. • Counties, municipalities, universities, tribes, etc.

33. Forecast #4: Wired universe • Data will come from everywhere and go to anywhere

34. High resolution imagery

35. Sensor networks: Webcams, connected motes and MEMS

36. Spatial search: Google local

37. Location-based services: Location knowledge and sensitivity Courtesy: HCI Group Cornell Univ.

38. Forecast #5: Interfaces • GUI and WIMP will be dead, long live perceptual and multimodal computer interfaces

39. Gesture recognition and AR Images/Movies courtesy of Mathias Kolsh, UCSB

40. Software demonstration: Battuta

41. Software Demonstration: AR hand tracking

42. Forecast #6: Methods • Spatial analysis and visualization will be accepted methodologies across many disciplines and applications

43. Spatialization

44. Computing issues in 2024 • Network monitors itself, who sees? • Spyware and security vs Personal privacy • Who pays for services? • Who are the digit police? • Competing solutions and liability • The limits of accuracy • Tractability envelope: New methods • Simulation is everywhere, for everything

45. Geospatial issues in 2024 • Who owns your lifeline? (Huisman and Forer, 1998; students in Auckland)

46. Keith’s Daily Commute

47. Forecast #7 Geospatial privacy • Your geospatial data rights will be under threat

48. The threat from commerce • Minority Report • “I dread the day when I am woken from a sound sleep by a noisy, flashing advertisement projected on my retina urging me to download a new free Web-browser, one that I cannot turn off without mentally focusing on a dark grey ‘Decline’ button hovering at the far range of my peripheral vision. “(Clarke, 1999).

49. The threat from government • FOIA vs. “Mapping the Risks” • Scott McNealy of Sun Microsystems "You have no privacy - get over it."

50. Come a long way, but a long way still to go!