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Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Universidade Federal do Paraná Curitiba, Paraná

Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009. Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009. Streamflow Prediction Validation with the Application of Large Basin Rainfall-Runoff Model. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

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Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Universidade Federal do Paraná Curitiba, Paraná

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  1. Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Streamflow Prediction Validation with the Application of Large Basin Rainfall-Runoff Model Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Universidade Federal do Paraná Curitiba, Paraná Brasil Alexandre Guetter

  2. Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Brazil World Overview of the Brazilian Hydropower System • Total annual power production: 445 TWh • Annual rate of increase: 6% • State-run companies: 90% • Demand: • Hydropower (>30 MW): 72.6% • Hydropower (<30MW): 1.7% • Thermal: 14.7% • Nuclear: 2.5% • Import: 8.5%

  3. Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Overview of the Brazilian Hydropower System • Electricity Demand per Sector: • Industrial: 47% • Residential: 22% • Services: 14% • Other: 17% • Hourly Demand Curve • Peak at 6 pm (residential) • Base: hydro+thermal • Peak: hydro

  4. Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Power production Integrated System • Different regional climates grouped on a continental scale • Installed Capacity • Southeastern/Midwest: 63% • Southern: 17% • Northeastern: 14% • Northern: 6% • Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting Skill • Adequate: SU-NE-NO • Low: SE

  5. Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Energia armazenada máxima Capacidade instalada Hydropower Integrated System • Well-defined rainy season • Southeastern/Midwest: SON-DJF • Northeastern: FMAM (largest storage) • Quasi-uniform rainfall • Southern (smallest storage) • What do we want to predict: • Southeastern: in August if SON will have little rainfall – energy production • Southeastern: in November if DJF will be very rainy – flood control • Northeastern: in January if FMAM will have little rainfall Installed Capacity Energy Storage

  6. Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 The size of our problem: • About 60 large hydropower stations: require seasonal streamflow prediction

  7. Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Pilot Study: Streamflow Prediction Validation • 20 prediction points in 11 large basins • 9 basins with 2 points: the most upstream/downstream hydroplants

  8. Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Pilot Study: Activities • Naturalized streamflow analysis (1931-2007) • Diagnostic study of the association between high/low flows and SST anomalies (what is the climate model skill for such forcings?) • Data collection: raingauge mean-areal rainfall (variable period) • Large-scale rainfall-runoff model calibration • Streamflow assimilation: hydrologic model state updating • Validation study: use monthly precipitation forecast as input data for the state-updated rainfall-runoff model (1981-2005)

  9. Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Naturalized Streamflow Analysis – Iguaçu River

  10. Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Naturalized Streamflow Analysis – Iguaçu River

  11. Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 High Flows and SST anomalies – Iguaçu River

  12. Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 High Flows and SST anomalies – Iguaçu River

  13. Streamflow Forecasting Using Either Resampled or Predicted Rainfall Ensemble Streamflow Forecast ENSO Dynamic Model Forecast Southern Atlantic Run Updated Hydrologic Model Select Precipitation Data from Historic Record Associated with Forecast Climate Category

  14. Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Rainfall – Runoff Model

  15. Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Rainfall-Runoff Model With State-Updating

  16. Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Rainfall-Runoff Model With State-Updating Hydrologic Model State Updating αu e αp : fatores de ponderação, a calibrar U : covariance matrix of input errors W : covariance errors of model parameters M(t) : input data sensitivity matrix N(t) : model parameter sensitivity matrix

  17. Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Streamflow Prediction Using Resampled Rainfall

  18. Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Streamflow Prediction Using Climate Model Rainfall Streamflow Prediction Using Resampled Rainfall * This results are not for the Iguaçu Basin Highest Simulation (1981-2005) Forecast Ensemble Lowest Simulation (1981-2005)

  19. Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Second EUROBRISA Workshop - Dartmoor, Devon, UK - 21-24 July 2009 Conclusions and Recommendations • The diagnostic study of the relationship between high/low flows and SST anomalies was accomplished in year-1; • The collection of raingauge precipitation data and the rainfall-runoff model calibration was accomplished in year-2; • The streamflow prediction validation using seasonal rainfall prediction has not been completed yet; • The sensitivity analysis of energy production to rainfall prediction skill is a task for year-3; • Selection of period and basin for joint papers.

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