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Flux calculation results and systematic errors from Bartol calculation

Flux calculation results and systematic errors from Bartol calculation. presented by Giles Barr, Oxford with considerable help from Simon Robbins ICRR-Kashiwa December 2004. Outline. Hadron production

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Flux calculation results and systematic errors from Bartol calculation

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  1. Flux calculation results and systematic errors from Bartol calculation presented by Giles Barr, Oxford with considerable help from Simon Robbins ICRR-Kashiwa December 2004

  2. Outline Hadron production • Survey of data, model independent error estimates of existing data (by Simon Robbins et. al.) • New error propagation method • Results Warning: Very Preliminary OK to share it in the spirit of a ‘Workshop’

  3. 10 Daughter energy 1 TeV 100 10 1 GeV 1 GeV 10 100 1 TeV 10 Parent energy Population of hadron-production phase-space for pA →πX interactions. νμflux (represented by boxes) as a function of the parent and daughter energies. Measurements. 1-2 pT points 3-5 pT points >5 pT points Can attempt fit all the data simultaneously. Antiproton example: Duperray, Huang, Protasov, Buénerd astro-ph/0305274 Hadron production measurements SPY Atherton et. al. Barton et. al. Serpukov Allaby et. al. Eichten et. al. Cho et. al. Abbott et. al.

  4. pT range coverage This energy is best situation

  5. Proton energy Target 2.4 includes target fragmentation, antibaryon production Dip at high x in Target 2.1 due to implementation detail in leading particle

  6. From Gaisser-Honda review

  7. π production at 20 GeV

  8. K production at 20 GeV

  9. Lower energy

  10. Proposed total errors

  11. Primary cosmic ray π N N π K ν μ Consider chain from primary to neutrino Look for the interaction where baryon → meson Apply weight

  12. Linear addition of all errors(overestimate)

  13. More sophisticated combination • Linear combination too pessimistic • Not all uncertainties will be this bad at once. • Separate uncertainties – add quadratically • How ? Flaws: No difference pi+pi-, or K+K-

  14. More sophisticated combination

  15. More sophisticated combination

  16. More sophisticated combination Flaws: No difference pi+pi-, or K+K-

  17. Results Have used 1D for testing this investigation: • Present νμ/anti-νμ • Then present other ratios

  18. νμ/anti-νμ Flux syst errors Flux & syst errors Flux ratio syst errors Flux ratio & syst errors

  19. Type-ratio uncertainty versus energy

  20. Angle-ratio uncertainty versus energy

  21. Type-ratio uncertainties – cos θ

  22. Type-ratio uncertainties – cos θ

  23. Type-ratio uncertainties – cos θ

  24. Summary • Still preliminary yet, but this technique looks as if it works. • Depends (subjectively) on how you divide up the uncertainty • Lots of bins, independent is not reality • Too few bins → approach linear addition. • Probably wrong to have full correlation between π+ and π- IMPORTANT: Do not take the values of the errors too seriously in this preliminary presentation. • Straightforward to add primary flux errors and other errors.

  25. Primary fluxes (Data-Fit)/Fit 100%

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