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This discussion will focus on exploring new approaches and improving postprocessing techniques for high impact weather (HIW) forecasts. The aim is to enhance the link between verificators and forecast users, explaining state-of-the-art verification techniques and how to interpret spatial verification results. Additionally, EPS applications and the usage of nowcasting products will be discussed. Potential collaboration between the COSMO project and WMO JWGFVR HIW project will also be explored. The possibility of incorporating machine learning methods and the integration of COSMO/ICON-ART for fog forecasts will be addressed.
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WG4 activities. Discussion All COSMO GM in Saint Petersburg, 04 September 2018
Possible new PT:Guidelines for users of LAM forecasts. • Forecast production chain: Sequences of maps, meteograms, … • Improving the link between verificators and forecast users, explaining state-of-the-art verification techniques, how to read spatial verification results • EPS applications. How to use EPS products. • Using nowcasting products
Possible new joint project on HIW. WG4 participation Most important are severe, and more generally, high impact weather forecasts, which are often a result of postprocessing The could be close interrelation of a COSMO project with the WMO JWGFVR HIW project led by Beth Ebert At MetOffice, work is started by J. Flowerdew on verification of the whole modeling chain, step by step during the post-processing phases
A WG4 task about postprocessing techniques for HIW forecasts could include: • Overview of forecast methods for HIW events • Comparison of postprocessing techniques vs. DMO (including output of parameterizations), where possible, including verirication • Improving existing methods • Exploring new approaches. Machine learning? • Link to COSMO/ICON-ART for fog forecasts
