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OPENING ADDRESS Olivier Appert President of IFP

Explore the imminent depletion of oil reserves, forecasts, and innovative solutions for sustainable energy supply. Gain insights from industry experts and examine the impact of declining oil reserves on investment.

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OPENING ADDRESS Olivier Appert President of IFP

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  1. OPENING ADDRESSOlivier AppertPresident of IFP ASPO Seminar Paris 26 May 2003

  2. The announcement of the imminent depletion of oil reserves : a recurrent theme « La Technique moderne » 1919 « Nearly 4.2 billion barrels of oil had been produced in the United-States since 1859... … No more than 7 billion additional barrels could be produced. »

  3. Forecast date of oil conventionnal peak since 1970 Forecast date of conventionnal peak US EIA IEA : WEO 2000 Edwards IEA : WEO 1998 Bartlett Smith Ivanhoe Campbell Petroconsultant « Nemesis » USGS Deffeyes UK Dept of Energy United Nations World Bank ESSO Shell Hubbert BP Source: Energy exploration & exploitation Date of forecast

  4. Main arguments of optimists • a growing playing field • the role of technology • demand lower than anticipated

  5. Opening of a New Playing Field Countries still closed Countries open since 1993

  6. Offshore Oil Exploration and Production Records

  7. World Oil Production

  8. UK North Sea oil production forecasts during the 80 ’s Mb/d

  9. Oil demand Forecasts (WPC 1980) Mb/d Real level Source: Shell Oil company

  10. IFP R&D Program A contribution to a sustainable supply of energy resources • Risk assessment in exploration Increasing the success rate in exploration (notably in complex zones) • EOR Increasing the sweep efficiency by improving the reservoir characterization, acting on fluid properties and fluid-rock interactions and developing new drilling and well technology applied to complex reservoirs or offshore, etc. • Unconventional oil resources Optimizing tar sands and extra-heavy oil exploitation (from reservoir to syncrude production) • Energy saving Developing engines with new combustion systems

  11. Evolution of oil reserves discovered in giant fields* Volumes of oil discovered in giant fields per decade Gbbl Gb *Oil initial reserves greater than 500 Mbbl

  12. Impact of Decline Rate on Investment Decline rate assumption 5%; demand growth 2%  around 60 mb/d of additional production capacity

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