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Cootes Paradise Phosphorus Budget and Model Work

Cootes Paradise Phosphorus Budget and Model Work. Jim Moore JEMSys Software Systems Inc. April 2005. Background. Bay of Quinte: two reports by Minns et al. (2004) for Bay of Quinte Scope limited solely to adapting their work to Cootes Paradise Data limited to:

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Cootes Paradise Phosphorus Budget and Model Work

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  1. Cootes Paradise PhosphorusBudget and Model Work Jim Moore JEMSys Software Systems Inc. April 2005

  2. Background • Bay of Quinte: two reports by Minns et al. (2004) for Bay of Quinte • Scope limited solely to adapting their work to Cootes Paradise • Data limited to: a) that collected by Simser (2004) and b) generated by Aquafor Beech (2005)

  3. Overview • Loadings reports do not account for outputs • Objective 1: Water budget • Objective 2: Phosphorus concentrations and budget • Objective 3: Model predicting water column P conc.

  4. Water Budget Schematic

  5. Morphometry Model • Elevation (m): 74.8 (74.2 - 75.7) • Volume (1000 m3): 713.1 (3.8 - 2742.0) • Area (ha): 173.6 (20.4 - 287.3) • Mean Depth (cm): 41.1 (1.9 - 95.5)

  6. Water Budget Data Sources • Levels: CHS Burlington • Creek flows: Aquafor Beech report • Precipitation: DOE Mount Hope • Evaporation: Meredith (1975) equations • STP and summer CSO flows: Simser collection • Urban runoff and other CSO: as in 2nd loadings report • Groundwater: after Ptacek et al. (2004)

  7. Water Budget Summary • Creeks dominate • Other flows significant in summer • Large annual changes in volume

  8. Water Budget Summary • High flushing rates

  9. Exchange Flow Model • QOUT = Q1 - Q2 • Q2 = Alpha * QOUT

  10. P Budget Schematic

  11. P Budget Data Sources • Creeks: Aquafor Beech report; wet-dry, except Spencer • Precipitation: 60 ug/l after Kuntz (1980) for Burlington • STP flows: Simser collection • CSO flows: 2130 ug/l, Simser collection • Urban runoff: 330 ug/l, loadings report • Groundwater: 30 ug/l, after Ptacek et al. (2004) • Water column: CP1/CP2, Simser collection • Settling rate: 0.115 m/day, Minns et. al (2004) • Harbour: annual means, 2nd loadings report

  12. Annual Loading Summary

  13. Summer Loading Summary

  14. Summer Net Loading

  15. Summer Budget Summary

  16. Problem w/ Sediment Model ? • As much as 100% settling per day • Reflux estimates only reflect settling rate

  17. Dynamic Model • Minns (1986) (simple model) • Daily time-step, historical and future 15-year periods • Driven by same data as budget • Hydrological sub-model, simulates all elements of water budget • Water column phosphorus sub-model simulating elements of phosphorus budget • Goal: Predict water column P concentration • Sediment sub-model: sedimentation, reflux, and burial processes

  18. Model Problems • Instability: • Inflows can overwhelm water column store • Settling often overwhelms water column store • Can’t predict reflux • May only be useful if sediments are ignored • May be useful as a gaming tool

  19. Demo

  20. 300 Predicted Conc (ug/l) 150 0 0 150 300 Mean Summer P Conc (ug/l) Predicting Summer P • sediment model off • exchange flow off

  21. Possible Gaming Tool

  22. Highlights • Very dynamic hydrologic regime • Very high flushing rates • Focus on net positive loads • Possible tool for gaming

  23. Next Steps • Confirm morphometry model • Check wet/dry creeks method • Confirm Chedoke (too low??) • Confirm urban runoff • Need working sediment model • Bound exchange flow estimates • Need full-season data

  24. Cootes Paradise PhosphorusBudget and Model Work

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