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Fierce Foresight

tm Creating Tomorrow Out of the Changing of Today WorldFuture 2013. Fierce Foresight. Dr. Michael Petty North Star Partners. Fierce Foresight tm. Fierce Foresight tm. Failed to foresee. Fierce Foresight tm. Failed to foresee. Failed to foresee. Fierce Foresight tm.

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Fierce Foresight

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  1. tm Creating Tomorrow Out of the Changing of Today WorldFuture 2013 Fierce Foresight Dr. Michael Petty North Star Partners

  2. Fierce Foresight tm

  3. Fierce Foresight tm Failed to foresee

  4. Fierce Foresight tm Failed to foresee Failed to foresee

  5. Fierce Foresight tm Failed to foresee Failed to foresee Failed to foresee

  6. Fierce Foresight “What everybody knows is what has already happened or become obvious. What the aware individual knows is what has not yet taken shape, what has not yet occurred” Sun Tzu The Art of War

  7. Objectives • Develop the ability to “fiercely” confront today’s reality • Introduce tools to initiate the creation of insight of today and foresight of the future • Recommend an ongoing foresight system to “fiercely” pursue the opportunities and risks of today’s reality and its changing environments

  8. Fierce Foresight tm Foresight (noun): • care or provision for the future • the act or power of foreseeing • an act of looking forward • knowledge or insight gained by or as by looking forward; a view of the future.

  9. Fierce Foresight tm • Fierce (adjective): menacing, cruel, barbarous, threatening • Synonyms (Roget’s Thesaurus):robust, intense, strong, powerful, passionate, unbridled, bold, relentless

  10. Fierce Foresight tm Gaining a view(s) of the future by robust, intense, passionate, bold and relentless pursuit.

  11. Fierce Foresight tm Interrogating Reality

  12. Fierce Foresight tm “the present is the future in its most creative state” T. Irene Sanders Strategic Thinking and the New Science

  13. Interrogating Reality • The objective of interrogating reality is to answer three critical questions: • What are the current influences on the business? • What influences are changing? • What influences could change?

  14. Interrogating Reality–Part I Insight of the present is the foundation of foresight of the future(s)

  15. Interrogating Reality–Part I • Asking the tough questions about today’s operations: • Do we really understand our business model? • If not, Business Model Canvas is a great tool!

  16. Interrogating Reality–Part I As we know it today

  17. The Business Model Building Blocks

  18. Interrogating Reality–Part I An example: Starbucks Exercise

  19. Interrogating Reality–Part I • Asking the “fierce” questions about today’soperations/business model: • What’s working? • What’s not working? • What’s working that’s in jeopardy?

  20. Interrogation Matrix: Current Influence

  21. Interrogation Matrix: Current InfluenceStarbucks Exercise

  22. Interrogating Reality–Part II • Asking the “fierce” questions about tomorrow’soperations: • What’s working today that may not tomorrow? • What business environmental factors are changing? • What known critical future issues are not being discussed?

  23. Interrogating Reality–Part II • Asking the “fierce” questions about tomorrow’s operations: • The Business Model Canvas on steroids • What are the underlying assumptions of each component of the Business Model? • Which assumptions are in jeopardy?

  24. Interrogating Reality–Part II What are the critical assumptions underlying each building block? What assumptions are in jeopardy?

  25. Interrogation Matrix: “Changing” InfluenceStarbucks Exercise (cont.)

  26. Interrogation Matrix: “Changing” Influence

  27. Interrogating Reality–Part II • Asking the “fierce” $64 billion question: • What STEEP factor could change? • What underlying assumption could be in jeopardy?

  28. Interrogation Matrix: “Changing” Influence

  29. Interrogating Reality–Part III • Asking the “fierce” questions about today’s reality: • Is the business model understood and are the underlying assumptions identified? • Are ongoing changes in the environment being actively and “fiercely” assessed? • Are future (but yet unknown) changes in environment factors being actively assessed?

  30. The Three “Fierce” Questions • 1) What general (tectonic) factors influence our business today? • 2) What general factors are changing? • 3) What general factors could change?

  31. Fierce Foresight tm The Black Swan

  32. The Black Swan • The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2007) • Nassim NicholasTaleb : “we do not live in a probabilistic world” • One of most influential books of the first decade of the 21st Century

  33. The Black Swan Defined • A Black Swan is an event that is: • Happens unexpectedly • Devastating in its consequences • Subsequently rationalized

  34. The Black Swan Stress Test What event (or related series of events) could make your business irrelevant or worthless in six months or less?

  35. The Black Swan Stress Test • What event (or related series of events) could make your business irrelevant or worthless in six months or less? • Example: The US auto industry

  36. U. S. Automotive Business Model Underlying Assumptions • Proper Needs Assessment • Necessary Demand • Acceptable Styling • Appropriate Technology • Available Resources • Cost Efficient Operations • Appropriate Quality • Competitive Price • Available inventory • Available consumer credit

  37. U. S. Automotive Business Model Underlying Assumptions • Proper Needs Assessment • Necessary Demand • Acceptable Style • Appropriate Technology • Available Resources • Cost Efficient Operations • Appropriate Quality • Competitive Price • Available inventory • Available consumer credit

  38. The Black Swan Stress Test • What event (or related series of events) could make your business irrelevant or worthless in six months or less? • Example: The US auto industry • Sixty year old business model • Key element – providing retail customers loans or leases to transact new car purchases • Made irrelevant in less than six months in 2008 • Impact of banking industry credit crisis

  39. Stress Test Rules(Table Exercise) • What event (Black Swan) or series of events could render the current business model irrelevant/worthless in six months or less • Identify ten “Black Swan” • Improbability of likelihood is irrelevant (What probability of total loss is acceptable to you?)

  40. The Black Swan Matrix

  41. Black Swan Assessment

  42. Is Your Business Model at Risk? • Sony Walkman – market leader for 20+ years • MP3 technology - alternative (albeit illegal) music delivery system (Napster) • Apple via iTunes/ iPod - capitalized on the change in technology and change in music contracting • The Walkman - officially retired for lack of market demand.

  43. Is Your Business Model at Risk? • Sony Trinitron Television – the premium TV product for three decades • Sony Walkman – market leader for 20+ years • Sony eBook reader – on market almost four years before the iPad.

  44. Fierce Foresight tm The Flip-Side: The Golden Goose

  45. The Golden Goose Defined • The Golden Goose is an event that is: • Happens unexpectedly • Creates extraordinary opportunities as a consequence • Subsequently rationalized

  46. The Golden Goose “Euphoria” Test Rules • Identify the event (Golden Goose) or series of events that would render your current business model extraordinarily successful in “6”months • Identify ten “Golden Geese” • Improbability of likelihood is irrelevant (What probability of extraordinary success would you pass up?)

  47. The Golden Goose Matrix

  48. Golden Goose Assessment

  49. Three More “Fierce” Questions • 1) Are you aggressively hunting the Black Swan? • 2) Are you aggressively hunting the Golden Goose? • 3) If not, why not?

  50. Fierce Foresight tm Fiercely Creating Tomorrow

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