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Richard Howitt University of California, Davis howitt@primal.ucdavis.edu California Agricultural Summit Davis, Ca, February 10 2011. Water and California Agriculture: Getting Through the Next 40 Years. 1. Trends in California Agriculture. Land cropping patterns are influenced by
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Richard Howitt University of California, Davis howitt@primal.ucdavis.edu California Agricultural Summit Davis, Ca, February 10 2011 Water and California Agriculture: Getting Through the Next 40 Years 1
Trends in California Agriculture • Land cropping patterns are influenced by • Economic factors • Climatic conditions • A Future Scenario for California agriculture, NOT a prediction- a set of plausible scenarios • Driving forces: Interaction among: • Market demands • Productivity • Water • Salinity • Urbanization
Modeling South of Delta Water Transfers • UCD Civil Engineering feasibility analysis • Existing facilities can sustain significant transfers • Political Constraints • Many regions lie within a single county • East-West transfers within a county • Preliminary Modeling • Willing to pay between $350 - $500 per af • Up to 45 percent reduction in impacts in some regions
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Relative Change in the Shallow Groundwater Table (0.46 - 0.58% /pa-- Shoups 2004).
2050 Outlook Under Climate Warming Predicted yield reduction in perennial and annual crops, with the exception of fodder crops. Water shortages will be the key resource through which climate change impacts will be felt in California Adaptation to climate change will depend on innovative research and resource management methods. Statewide irrigated acreage reductions average 20.5% 2050 real agricultural revenues will increase over 2005 levels by 25% despite reductions in land and water use. Websites http://swap.ucdavis.edu/, http://cee.engr.ucdavis.edu/faculty/lund/CALVIN/