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Richard Howitt University of California, Davis howitt@primal.ucdavis

Richard Howitt University of California, Davis howitt@primal.ucdavis.edu California Agricultural Summit Davis, Ca, February 10 2011. Water and California Agriculture: Getting Through the Next 40 Years. 1. Trends in California Agriculture. Land cropping patterns are influenced by

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Richard Howitt University of California, Davis howitt@primal.ucdavis

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  1. Richard Howitt University of California, Davis howitt@primal.ucdavis.edu California Agricultural Summit Davis, Ca, February 10 2011 Water and California Agriculture: Getting Through the Next 40 Years 1

  2. Trends in California Agriculture • Land cropping patterns are influenced by • Economic factors • Climatic conditions • A Future Scenario for California agriculture, NOT a prediction- a set of plausible scenarios • Driving forces: Interaction among: • Market demands • Productivity • Water • Salinity • Urbanization

  3. Surviving the Next 12-15 years in the Valley

  4. Modeling South of Delta Water Transfers • UCD Civil Engineering feasibility analysis • Existing facilities can sustain significant transfers • Political Constraints • Many regions lie within a single county • East-West transfers within a county • Preliminary Modeling • Willing to pay between $350 - $500 per af • Up to 45 percent reduction in impacts in some regions

  5. CVPM 12 CVPM 11 CVPM 13 CVPM 17 CVPM 16 CVPM 20 ` CVPM 18 CVPM 21 CVPM 19 CVPM 14 CVPM 15 CVPM 10

  6. Paying for an Isolated Delta Facility

  7. Combined Delta Water Export Demand ( 2007$)

  8. Exceedence for an Isolated Facility

  9. The Cost of Salinity Effects

  10. Relative Change in the Shallow Groundwater Table (0.46 - 0.58% /pa-- Shoups 2004).

  11. Saline Affected Areas (DWR 2001)

  12. Urbanization Effects in the Valley

  13. Urban Land Use 1998 (Landis and Reilly)

  14. Urban Land Use 2020 (Landis and Reilly)

  15. Urban Land Use 2050 (Landis and Reilly)

  16. Effects of Climate Warming

  17. Climate Induced Yield Change 19

  18. Percent Reduction in Optimized Water Deliveries

  19. Runoff, Deliveries, Land Use and Revenues 2050 21

  20. 2050 Outlook Under Climate Warming Predicted yield reduction in perennial and annual crops, with the exception of fodder crops. Water shortages will be the key resource through which climate change impacts will be felt in California Adaptation to climate change will depend on innovative research and resource management methods. Statewide irrigated acreage reductions average 20.5% 2050 real agricultural revenues will increase over 2005 levels by 25% despite reductions in land and water use. Websites http://swap.ucdavis.edu/, http://cee.engr.ucdavis.edu/faculty/lund/CALVIN/

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