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DEQ Maximum Likelihood Flow Probability

DEQ Maximum Likelihood Flow Probability. Using Winter Recharge to Predict Summer Low Flow. Objectives of Current Study. Can we provide information about the likelihood of summertime drought flows 30, 60, 90 or more days ahead of time?

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DEQ Maximum Likelihood Flow Probability

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  1. DEQ Maximum Likelihood Flow Probability Using Winter Recharge to Predict Summer Low Flow Preliminary Draft

  2. Objectives of Current Study • Can we provide information about the likelihood of summertime drought flows 30, 60, 90 or more days ahead of time? • Provide us with the ability to mobilize drought response long before the drought hits Preliminary Draft

  3. Concept: Effective Recharge Window Rainfall during the N-D-J-F “recharge months” (before “leaf-out”), is linked to summer stream flow. Recharge during this critical time may drive water availability during summer low-flow months. Preliminary Draft

  4. Background • Built on historical data & institutional knowledge: • Long-Term Collaboration USGS & VA-DEQ • Low-Flow Characterization Study (2009-2011) • “Chloride”/Tracer Studies (2010) • Groundwater Well Network Observations (2002-current) • Provides Warning of Summer Low Flows Up to 4-8 Months in Advance Preliminary Draft

  5. Definitions R25: Probability that a daily stream flow during a particular month will be less than the 25th percentile for that month (equivalent to Drought Watch Condition) R10: Probability that a daily stream flow during a particular month will be less than the 10thpercentile for that month (equivalent to Drought Warning Condition) R5: Probability that a daily stream flow during a particular month will be less than the 5thpercentile for that month (equivalent to Drought Warning Condition) Preliminary Draft

  6. Maximum Likelihood Logistic Regression (MLLR) to Predict Summer Low-Flow Probabilities(Preliminary Draft Results for July, 2013) Preliminary Draft

  7. Maximum Likelihood Logistic Regression (MLLR) to Predict Summer Low-Flow Probabilities(Preliminary Draft Results for August, 2013) Preliminary Draft

  8. Maximum Likelihood Logistic Regression (MLLR) to Predict Summer Low-Flow Probabilities(Preliminary Draft Results for September 2013) Preliminary Draft

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