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2007 Emissions TMC Meeting March 2004

Economic Consequences. 2007 Emissions TMC Meeting March 2004. US Retail Sales. US Retail Sales. US Retail Sales. Inventory-To-Sales Ratios. Retail. Total. Manufacturing. Wholesale. Transportation Services Segmentation Line Haul, Regional, Local. PRODUCTION. FINAL GOODS.

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2007 Emissions TMC Meeting March 2004

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  1. Economic Consequences 2007 Emissions TMC Meeting March 2004 Martin Labbe Associates

  2. US Retail Sales Martin Labbe Associates

  3. US Retail Sales Martin Labbe Associates

  4. US Retail Sales Martin Labbe Associates

  5. Inventory-To-Sales Ratios Retail Total Manufacturing Wholesale Martin Labbe Associates

  6. Transportation Services SegmentationLine Haul, Regional, Local PRODUCTION FINAL GOODS DISTRIBUTION CENTERS PRODUCERS/ DISTRIBUTORS LineHaul Line Haul INTERMEDIATE GOODS Line Haul CRUDE MATERIALS DISTRIBUTION Martin Labbe Associates

  7. Transportation Services SegmentationLine Haul, Regional, Local DISTRIBUTION Distribution Centers Producers/ Distributors Line Haul/ Regional Line Haul/ Regional Wholesalers Line Haul/ Regional/Local Regional/ Local Local Regional/ Local Regional/ Local Local Local End Users End Users End Users Retail Outlets Martin Labbe Associates

  8. Class 8 Population ChangePercent Change Year Ago Martin Labbe Associates

  9. US Class 8 Vehicle Population Age Trends Martin Labbe Associates

  10. Areas Impacted • Direct Economic • Cost of goods sold • Fuel cost increase • Pre-buy issues Martin Labbe Associates

  11. Areas Impacted • Indirect Economic • Regional economic disruption • Cost of hiring • Layoff restrictions Martin Labbe Associates

  12. Areas Impacted • Equipment • Unknown maintenance • Pre-buy quality • Component suppliers • Where to put it Martin Labbe Associates

  13. Areas Impacted • Operations • Increased fuel consumption • Unscheduled downtime • Scheduled downtime • Increased training • Enforcement issues Martin Labbe Associates

  14. Areas Impacted • Environment • Fuel issues • Cleaning traps • Disposing of waste • Disposing of traps • Diesel to gas switch Martin Labbe Associates

  15. Current Estimates • Fuel – 6 to 20 cents per gallon • Fuel Economy – 6% to 9% loss • Equipment - $6,000 to $15,000 • Additional Maintenance - $1,500 to $3,000 per year • Waste material handling - $???? • Roadside fines - $?,??? per incident Martin Labbe Associates

  16. Net Profit Margins Over $25 Million $5 to 25 million Martin Labbe Associates

  17. Timing – MLA Estimates • 1/1/2007 – Engines in all vehicles • 9/1/2006 – Final version to production • 8/1/2005 – Current estimate of availability • 10/1/2005 – Estimate of production • 10 months of testing Martin Labbe Associates

  18. General Conclusions • Gross misestimate of impact • Economic • Operations • Carrier profitability • Environment • Fuel economy • Energy conservation Martin Labbe Associates

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