Earth2Class Workshops for Teachers

1. Earth2Class Workshops for Teachers State of Carbon Cycle in 2009 in the Eve of the Copenhagen International Climate Conference: Challenge to the Humanity Taro Takahashi Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University November 21, 2009

2. Air CO2 at Mauna Loa and South Pole, 1957-2000

3. Global Carbon Cycle

4. Global Fossil Fuel Emissions Projection 2009 Emissions: -2.8% GDP: -1.1% C intensity: -1.7% Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios 3.4% per year 1 % per year Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009

5. 5 55% Annex B (Kyoto Protocol) Developed Nation 4 CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) 3 45% Developing Nations Non-Annex B 2 2000 2010 1990 Annual Emission Rate of Carbon to the Atmosphere Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience; CDIAC 2009

6. 2000 1600 1200 Carbon (tons x 1000) 800 Russian Fed. 400 Japan India 0 03 07 99 03 05 1990 95 01 2007 Time Fossil Fuel Emissions: Top Emitters (>4% of Total) Top Emitters (Countries) of Fossil Fuel Emissions USA China Global Carbon Project 2009; Data: Gregg Marland, CDIAC 2009

7. Components of Fossil Fuel Emissions 4 40% Oil 3 36% Coal CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) 2 Gas 1 Cement 0 2000 2010 1990 Components of FF Emissions Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience

8. Per Capita CO2 Emissions (World Mean) 1.3 1.2 1.1 Per Capita Emissions (tC person-1 y-1) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Per Capita CO2 Emissions Develop countries continue to lead with the highest emission per capita Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience; CDIAC 2009

9. Total Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions 10 8.7 8 Fossil fuel 6 CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) 4 Land use change 1.2 2 1970 1980 2010 2000 1960 1990 Total Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions 9.9 PgC 12% of total anthropogenic emissions Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience; Data: CDIAC, FAO, Woods Hole Research Center 2009

10. Modeled Carbon Sink Rates for Land Biosphere and Oceans Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience

11. Accumulation rates of CO2 in air Carbon Accumulation Rates in the Atmosphere Evolution of the fraction of total emissions that remain in the atmosphere 10 Total CO2 emissions (Estimated) 8 CO2 Partitioning (PgC y-1) 6 Atmosphere (Measured) 4 2 1970 1980 2010 2000 1960 1990 Data: NOAA, CDIAC; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience

12. CO2 EMISSIONS, SEA AND LAND UPTAKE All units are in Pg-C per year (1 Peta-gram = 1015 grams = 1 Giga tons) 1970 1980 1990 2000 • Balance in recent years: • Industrial emissions ~ 8.5 Pg-C/yr • Land use change ~ 1.5 Pg-C/yr • TOTAL EMISSIONS ~ 10.0 Pg-C/yr • Atmospheric growth 4.5 Pg-C/yr • Land biota uptake ~ 4 Pg-C/yr • Ocean uptake ~ 2 Pg-C/yr • RESERVOIRS ~10.5 Pg-C/yr • RESIDUALS = (TOTAL EMISSIONS) • (ATM.) – (LAND) – (OCEAN) • = ~ 0 on the average, but vary from • +3 to –3 Pg-C/yr from year to year. • Le Quere et al. (2009) Nature GS. 1970 1980 1990 2000

13. Airborne Fraction of Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions Trend: 0.27±0.2 % y-1 (p=0.9) 45% 40% Fraction of total CO2 emissions that remains in the atmosphere (Amount of Carbon Increase each year)/(Annual Total Anthropogenic Emission) 1.0 0.8 0.6 Airborne Fraction 0.4 0.2 1970 1980 2010 2000 1960 1990 Are the natural carbon sinks weakening? Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS; Raupach et al. 2008, Biogeosciences

14. Sea-Air CO2 Exchange and CO2 partial pressure CO2 in seawater = {[CO2]aq + [H2CO3]}+[HCO3-] +[CO3=] 0.5 – 1 % 97% 2.5% Sea exchanges CO2 molecules with air only through [CO2]aq. Since [CO2]aq cannot be distinguished from [H2CO3], they are commonly considered together. Partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) in seawater is a measure of the exchangeable CO2 molecules, and may be considered as “vapor” pressure of CO2. When pCO2 in seawateris greater than that in the overlying air, CO2 escapes from seawater to air. When pCO2 in seawateris smaller than that in the overlying air, CO2 in air is absorbed by seawater.pCO2 in seawateris sensitively affected by temperature, photosynthesis and calcification.

15. BERMUDA TIME SERIES (N. R. BATES, JGR, 2007) 1984-2004 MEAN RATE = 1.80±0.013 matm/yr for ocean, 1.80 matm/yr for air

16. 1989-2007 HAWAII TIME SERIES (HOT), Dore et al. PNAS, 2009 Air pCO2 change rate = 1.68 ± 0.03 matm/yr Ocean pCO2 change rate = 1.88 ± 0.16 matm/yr Ocean pH change rate = -0.0019 ± 0.0002 /yr

17. DISTRIBUTION OF SURFACE WATER PCO2, TEMPERATURE AND SALINITY IN THE U.S. WEST COAST, JUNE-AUGUST, 2002; AND 1997-2005 TIME SERIES OF SURFACE WATER PCO2 IN THE MONTREY BAY (F. CHAVEZ, MBARI)

18. Zero = Ocean pCO2 increase rate is same as the atmospheric pCO2 Red = Ocean pCO2 increase rate is faster than the atmospheric pCO2 Blue = Ocean pCO2 increase rate is slower than the atmospheric pCO2 1981-2007 matm per year Observed Rate of Change in the Sea-Air pCO2 Difference Ocean outgas uptake Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience

19. CHANGE IN WINTER TIME SURFACE WATER pCO2IN THE ICE-FREE ZONE (POOZ) OF THE SOUTHERN OCEAN 1.50°C < SST < 2.50°C; Day of year, 172 to 326 (late June – mid-Nov) pCO2 @ SST (uatm) Year

20. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS • The anthropogenic emissions of CO2 are rapidly increasing at the fastest rate anticipated by IPCC (3.4% per year) as a result of increases in “per capita carbon production rates” and human population. 2008 is an exception due to the economic recession. • While the carbon emissions from the Developed Countries increased only modestly, those from Developing Countries (China and India) increased very rapidly. The Developing Countries exported manufactured goods as they increased “Carbon emissions”. • The carbon cycle in the modern world is broadly understood in the decadal scale, but not in the annual scale satisfactorily. • The ocean CO2 sinks may be weakening for the past decades, while the land biota sink appears to be holding steady. • Unless the CO2 emissions are reduced substantially, the atmospheric CO2 concentrations would double the pre-industrial level by 2030. The presumed “tipping point” for the global warming of 4°F may be exceeded then.

21. CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN SEA-AIR pCO2 DIFFERENCES FEBRUARY, 2000 AUGUST, 2000

22. Mean Annual Rate of Net Sea-Air CO2 Flux Takahashi et al. (Deep Sea Res., 2009)

23. ATMOSPHERIC CO2 – MARINE PHOTOSYNTHESIS - CALCIFIERS CaCO3 + CO2 + H2O = Ca++ + 2 HCO3- SHELLS AIR/SEA OCEAN DISSOLVED FORAMINIFERA COCCOLITHS CORALS Increase in atmospheric CO2 causes dissolution of CaCO3. (The reaction goes to right) Increase in the photosynthetic utilization of CO2 encourages The growth of CaCO3. (The reaction goes to left.) Precipitation of CaCO3 causes seawater to lose CO2 to air. (The reaction goes to left.)

24. pCO2 and Coral Growth Rate

25. Volume of Liquid CO2 Emissions and Sequestration Capacity Global CO2 Emissions ~ 6 Gigatons-C/yr (1 Gigaton = 1 billion tons = 1015 grams) Volume as liquid CO2 ~ 30 ft x 50 miles x 50 miles U. S. Emissions ~1.3 Gigatons-C/yr Volume as liquid CO2 ~ 30 ft x 10 miles x 10 miles (3600 x Giant Stadium) ------------------------------------------------------------------ Depleted gas reservoirs 0.5 – 170 Gigaton-C “Depleted” oil reservoirs 3 – 80 Gigatons-C Land aquifers 50 – 14,000 Gigatons-C Juan de Fuca Ridge 250 Gigaton-C Deep ocean rocks Very large ?

26. Growth Rate of Emissions from Coal Burning, 2006 to 2008 2006-2008 300 250 90% of growth 200 CO2 emissions (TgC y-1) 150 100 50 0 India US World China -50 CDIAC 2009; Global Carbon Project 2009

27. Net C Emissions from Land Utility Changes in Tropical Countries Colombia Cameroon Venezuela Nicaragua Peru Rep.Dem.Congo India Nigeria Philippines Nepal 4-2% <1% 2-1% Net CO2 Emissions from LUC in Tropical Countries 2000-2005 600 60% 500 Brazil 400 Indonesia CO2 emissions (TgC y-1) 300 200 100 0 RA Houghton 2009, unpublished; Based on FAO land use change statistics

28. Summary of Carbon Budget, 2000-2008 2000-2008 PgC fossil fuel emissions 7.7 Exo-tropics Tropics Source deforestation 1.4 CO2 flux (PgC y-1) atmospheric CO2 4.1 Sink land 3.0 (5 models) ocean 2.3 (4 models) 0.3 Residual Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience