European Socio-Economic Classification Validation Conference

1. European Socio-Economic Classification Validation Conference Portuguese Statistical Office Lisbon, 19-20 January 2006

2. Unemployment risks in four European countries: an attempt of testing the construct validityof the ESeC scheme Antonio Schizzerotto, Roberta Barone & Laura Arosio University of Milano Bicocca Italy

3. Aims of the study • Testing the construct validity of the ESeC classification, by means of a comparative analysis aimed at detecting the variations across four EU-15 countries in the risks of unemployment experienced by incumbents of occupations belonging to different ESeC classes. • Checking whether in the case of Italy different versions of Isco88.com- i.e. 2, 3 and 4 digit versions- affect the estimated disparities between ESeC classes in the risk of unemployment

4. Four EU countries • Denmark, as a representative of countries where the State playes an important role in the functioning of the whole society • Germany and Italy, as representatives of countries where family has a crucial position in the institutional arrangements of the society • United Kingdom, as a representative of countries that attribute great importance to the market in the workings of the society

5. Three hypotheses to be tested • ESeC is a valid social scheme • The disparities between ESeC classes in the risk of unemployment should follow the same general pattern between countries that posses a market economy • Despite this basic similarity, as a consequence of different institutional arrangements and labour market regulations across countries, one should observe between countries dissimilarities in unemployment risks displayed by each ESeC class.

6. Data sources • Waves from 1994 to 2001 of the European Community Households Panel (ECHP) • Waves 1997, 1999 and 2001 of Ilfi (Italian Households Longitudinal Study)

7. Methods • Poisson regression of unemployment incident rates ratios • Survivor functions in employment by ESeC classes

8. ESeC classes and risks of unemployment

9. Poisson Regression of Unemployment Incidence Rate Ratios by ESeC Classes and Country in the period 1994-2001

10. Average incidence rates (%) of unemployment (in bold letters) and 95% confidence intervals by ESeC classes and countries in the period 1994-2001

11. Poisson regression of unemployment incidence rate ratios by ESeC classes and country controlling for gender, age, level of education and marital status. ECHP waves 1-7

12. Average incidence rates (%) of unemployment (in bold letters) and 95% confidence intervals by ESeC classes and countries in the period 1994-2001. Estimates from multivariate Poisson regression model controlling for gender, age, education and civil status.

13. ESeC classes and the duration of employment episodes

18. Log-rank test of expected and observed events of dismissal by ESeC classes and country and values of χ2 test.

19. The validity of ESeC class scheme and Isco 88 com versions according to Ilfi data

20. ESeC classes size (in percentages) by Isco 88 com version. Italy, 2001 (current occupation)

21. ESeC classes size (in percentages) by Isco 88 com version. Working episodes, Italy 1980-2001

22. Poisson regression of unemployment incidence rate ratios by Isco 88 com version. Italy 1980-2001

23. Average unemployment incidence rates (%) by Isco 88 com version. Italy 1980-2001

24. Employment relations and level of social desirability of ESeC classes according to ILFI data

25. ESeC classes by type of contract, Italy, 1980-2001.

26. Employment status of ESeC classes 1 and 2, Italy, 1980-2001.

27. Scale’s score by ESeC classes , Italy, 1980-2001.