Mahesh Patankar ( mpatankar@iitb.ac ) Anand Patwardhan ( anand@cc.iitb.ac )

1. Environmental Policies and Resulting Outcomes – An Analysis of Transport Sector Case Studies in India Mahesh Patankar (mpatankar@iitb.ac.in) Anand Patwardhan (anand@cc.iitb.ac.in) Shailesh J Mehta School of Management Indian Institute of Technology – Bombay CMU – February 2004 Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

2. Context • Indian transport policy / regulatory framework • Research questions and literature review • Framework outline • Environmental policy – technology link • Technology hierarchy • Framework quantification • Case studies (description and analysis) • Going beyond….. Outline Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

3. Context Sharp increase in public and private road transport, leading to higher energy use and environmental impacts (Numbers in figure – all types and entire country) Deteriorating local air quality is a matter of concern – leads to policy response for environmental control Transport sector contributes to 29 to 35 % GHG emissions in India! Source: MoST, India, NEERI, India Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

4. Indian transport policy framework - structure Ministry of Surface Transport (MoST) Central Government Ministry of Environment & Forests (MoEF) Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas (MoPNG) State Pollution Control Board State Government Regional Transport Office Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

5. Indian transport policy framework - functions Ministry of Surface Transport (MoST) (Designs new road projects, guidelines on vehicle industry standards) (Sets emission standards – vehicular and ambient air quality) Central Government Ministry of Environment & Forests (MoEF) (licensing and supply chain of petroleum products) Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas (MoPNG) (Air quality monitoring, reports to the MoEF) State Pollution Control Board State Government (Regulates tail-pipe emission permits) Regional Transport Office Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

6. What determines the success of policy? Research goal: Understand process of policy formation, effect of alternate fuel policies and its success parameters Understand the differences in “success parameters” using case studies Questions: Can the environmental policies alone ensure diffusion of clean fuel in India What are the compelling conditions that ensure “success rate” of clean fuel policies Can a framework be established that will act like a “policy tool” Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

7. Summary and gaps Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

8. Hierarchical conceptualization of technology and technological change Environmental policy Components of framework Technology diffusion, market response Outcomes – environmental benefits, market development Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

9. Framework policy – tech change Requires and involves technology, systems and regime Decision making Ancillary infrastructure Public perception Set of enablers (standards) Stage 1 Stage 2 Policy stage Use stage Outcome (Environmental benefits, market, technology) Individual decision Actors, responsible for use Regulators Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

10. Framework explanation Stage 1 – Policy stage acts as the “Policy-push” to facilitate change An enabling stage, may not be sufficient Stage 2 – Provides “Market-pull” to implement and achieve results of the policies Ensures availability of ancillary infrastructure – represented as a technology regime with clearly defined determinants Determinants are complementary, interdependent Individual decisions dependent on availability of ancillary infrastructure Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

11. Technology hierarchy - ancillary infrastructure New business, developing institutions, governing organizations, involvement of banks, defined market, complementing applications Technology-based regime Technology System Increase in infrastructure, complementing technologies, defined application area Technology Product / Process Changes in end-use, in one application area, environmental benefits (References: Kemp 1997, Jacobsson, 2000) Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

12. Examples of technology - regimes Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

13. Components of regime changes Technology and technology system Policy and standardization Indicators: Complementary technologies, regimes Indicators: Directives and standards Example: Fuel use policy Inspection and maintenance Retrofit standardization Interventions by courts Example: Fuel availability Engine retrofit techniques Transport regime around a fuel Developing institutions, markets Societal benefits Indicators: Increase in indigenous mfg, ROI for users and suppliers Example: Infrastructure companies, user benefits, increasing businesses and investments Indicator: Public health Mortality Example: Lower vehicular pollution Health benefits Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

14. Framework variables - quantification Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

15. Outcome of environmental policy – Case Studies Taxicab owners granted an exten sion till March 2001 Pollution test made mandatory Institution of Lal Committee Direction to set CNG stations in South Mumbai 1992 - Writ Petition in the court By Smoke Affected Residents’ Forum Higher compliance check Mumbai: A clear link evident between the court regulations and the increasing vehicles and sale Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

16. Outcome of environmental policy – Case Studies Steady increase in the vehicles converted to CNG, conversion of buses to CNG at a larger scale than that in Mumbai Distinct policy steps to ensure supply of CNG as a fuel Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

17. Outcome of environmental policy – Case Studies Mumbai: CNG sale increased many-folds, but not sufficient to cater to the entire fleet New Delhi: CNG sale increased many-folds, but not sufficient to cater to the entire fleet Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

18. Outcome of environmental policy – Case Studies Success rate of policy / implementation - observations - Supply constraint resulted in chaotic conditions in both the cities (media reports, CNG demand forecast for the vehicle fleet – much more than the actual supply) - Policies alone did not provide the sufficiency condition for “use”, though it resulted in conversion / engine retrofits - Drivers pushing CNG sales up include pricing policies resulting in economic benefits to users, lesser queuing time at the filling stations, availability of conversion kits, financing Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

19. Outcome of environmental policy – Case Studies New Delhi Mumbai Specific policy measure Policy thrust with Court intervention Enabling condition Evolution of technological system Shift from import to local suppliers Evolving markets Evolution of public-private partnerships User benefits Economic benefits with fuel switch-over Differences in “fleet-management”, refueling time Evolving enterprises Corporatized public Foreign direct entities investment in a joint venture company Technology / systems Similar supply chain in both cities, higher level of quality assurance in Mumbai Political will Political support in both the cases Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

20. Case studies Enabling policy condition (Policy push) Presence of ancillary infrastructure (Market pull) CNG use in Mumbai √ √ CNG use in New Delhi √ √ Unleaded gasoline in India and Thailand √ Multi-point fuel injection √ Discussion – case studies Case studies used in validation: CNG use in Mumbai and New Delhi, Unleaded gasoline in India and Thailand, Multi-point fuel injection Clear evidence of interaction with the policy and a clearly identified technology regime Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

21. Limitations - Proposed framework validated with qualitative data - Case studies in other developing countries may show different features - Data gaps on the improvement in ambient air quality - Other factors like industrial and commercial sector would have a bearing on improved air quality - Case studies represent “specific” fuel switching options, for a comprehensive fuel switching policy, framework will have to be different Other merits of the case studies: Use in other socio-technical experiments, learning for other options in alternate fuel use Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004

22. Going beyond…. Proposed case studies 1. Passive solar in developing countries 2. Rainwater harvesting in India 3. Green buildings program in Asia Mahesh Patankar & Anand Patwardhan, SJM School of Management, IIT-Bombay, February 2004