The Forgotten War: US Foreign Policy in Afghanistan

1. The Forgotten War: US Foreign Policy in Afghanistan Esther Lin and Rachel Tang

2. A History of US-Afghanistan Policy 1940s - 1960s •     US established embassy in Kabul, ran economic/military assistance programs  April 1978- Saur Revolution •  Communist People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan overthrows monarchy • 1979-US ambassador is killed; Soviet Union intervenes in Afghanistan • US terminates all assistance programs, begins aiding rebels up to 3 million dollars 

3. A History of US-Afghanistan Policy 1996- Rebels (Taliban) seize Kabul and begin theocratic rule, supported by Al-Qaeda. 1997- Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Pakistan recognize the Taliban as legitimate government of Afghanistan  2001- 9/11 occurs, US declares war on Afghanistan with intent to eliminate terrorist havens/reconstruct government (Afghan Investment/Reconstruction Task Force)

4. Who's Who President Obama: Commander in ChiefGeneral Petraeus: Current commander in AfghanistanEx General McChrystal: Asked for the additional troops for Afghanistan, Obama sent 30,000 more troops Al Qaeda: terrorist group, responsible for the 9/11 crisisOsama Bin Laden: leader of Al QaedaTaliban: terrorist group that houses Al QaedaHamid Karzai: President of AfghanistanAfghan Security Forces: protect the safety of Afghanistan ideally, being trained by US troops

5. Background on Current Foreign Policy • Obama's West Point Speech • "Disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al-Qaeda" • Prevent their return to either Afghanistan  • Surge forces, targeting elements of the insurgency • Securing key population centers, major cities • Training Afghan forces • Transferring responsibility to Afghan partner • Increasing our partnership with Pakistanis (they face the same threat)

6. Pro: Foreign Policy • Deadline July 2011 • Afghan people deserve to know deadline for preparation • US combat forces deserve to know when their mission is over • Open-ended conflicts erode morale • Do not want another drawn out war like Vietnam  • "Taking into conditions on the ground" • Afghanistan must be able to assume full control of country

7. Pro: Foreign Policy • Developments are underway to stabilize Afghanistan • Was a failed nation  • What happens in Afghanistan affects US national security • Democracy in election of Karzai • Rebuilding infrastructure

8. Evidence: • 73% of Afghans feel that government is more democratic; less corrupt. (Afghan Conflict Monitor) • Afghan armies are being trained; competency boosts confidence and stability, increases trust in government  • Ratio of instructors:students => 1 : 79 in 2009 to 1 : 29 in 2010 •  Karzai's election and appointment of ethnically diverse ministers creates balance • Election was clear sign of rising democracy  • 75% eligible votes

9. Con: Foreign Policy • The war has gone for too long • Original intention : prevent terrorists from using Afghanistan as safe haven.   •  Iraq took attention away; Afghanistan lacked clear policy and resources so the war dragged on for too long.  • The goal should be ousting the Taliban and destroying terrorist groups, not nation-building • Legitimacy comes from the people

10. Con: Foreign Policy • Surge will not work:  • In Iraq, situation turned b/c of al-Qaeda losing support of Sunni groups, not necessarily b/c of the troop surge • No such similar groups in Afghanistan • Pumping money into a 'civilian surge' only fosters corruption, protection rackets for local warlords and Taliban. 

11. Evidence: • Congressional Report: Warlords, Inc.  • In depth congressional report about trucking companies paying protection fees to local warlords/Taliban • 1 January to 30 June 2010, 3,268 conflict-related civilian casualties; 31 per cent increase compared to the first 6 months of 2009.  • 321 troops have died so far in 2010--highest since the war began.

12. Recent Developments: • Oct. 28, 2010: France announces plans to hand over some districts to Afghan forces and possibly begin pulling out of Afghanistan in 2011. (Currently has 3, 750 troops ) •  Oct. 27, 2010: Afghanistan is considering a schedule to terminate security contractors starting Nov. 15

13. Recent Developments •  Oct. 22, 2010: US proposes $2 billion security package for Pakistan to fight insurgents.  •  Oct. 18, 2010: 1.3 mill out of 5.6 mill (over 20%) ballots in the parliamentary elections were canceled due to fraud.  •  Oct. 6, 2010: Afghan forces seize 19 tons of explosives being smuggled across the Iranian border.  • heightened suspicion of Iran

14. Interest Groups Anti- Afghanistan War: Code Pink • The Afghanistan War cannot be won • We spent too many fruitless years in Afghanistan- no reduction of terrorism threats, no peace in country •  Need an exit strategy, now. Pro-Afghanistan War: Move America Forward •  Support our troops •  Supports troops' missions in the war on terror

15. Public Opinion Polls Gallup http://www.gallup.com/poll/124490/In-U.S.-More-Support-Increasing-Troops-Afghanistan.aspx

16. Gallup http://www.gallup.com/poll/116233/Afghanistan.aspx

17. Gallup http://www.gallup.com/poll/116233/Afghanistan.aspx

18. What do the parties think? Republicans:  • Support the troop increase • Destroy terrorism Democrats: • Generally do not support the war • Would prefer  • Do not want to increase troops or war funding Socialists: • Bring the troops back • Not fighting for the Afghanistan citizens • Increased threat of terrorists

19. Kal's Cartoons http://www.kaltoons.com/wordpress/2009/12/kal-economist-afghanistan-cartoons/

20. Kal's Cartoons http://www.kaltoons.com/wordpress/2009/12/kal-economist-afghanistan-cartoons/