Col Harold A. Elkins Chief, Weather Plans Division

1. XOO-W NSWP Assessment Col Harold A. Elkins Chief, Weather Plans Division NSWP Assessment OFCM Silver Spring, MD 7 Jul 05

2. Overview • AFW/AFSWP Links • AFW Contributing Efforts • AFW Future Capability • Way Ahead • Summary

3. AFW Linkages to NSWP Goals <= Collection <= Analysis <= Forecasting <= Tailoring, Dissemination, & Integration National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, 2nd Edition, July 2000

4. AFW Contributing Efforts • Cumulative 21% of AFW resources since 1998 dedicated to space weather • Observation: • Global space weather data collection network--5 solar radio and optical observatories: Italy, Sagamore Hill, Holloman, Hawaii, Australia • Ionospheric sounding network on four continents • Energetic particle data from military satellites • Global network directly measures ionospheric scintillation

5. AFW Contributing Efforts Data Processing and Analysis: • Ionospheric data available to DoD and DoC • “Official” 3-hour (ap) averaged geomagnetic index • Auroral boundary and radar clutter • HF point-to-point and global propagation • Radar correction factors • UHF SATCOM scintillation/point-to-point SATCOM link analysis • Single-frequency GPS error estimates • Hourly ionospheric activity indexes • Environmental assessment of satellite anomalies

6. AFW Contributing Efforts • Forecasting: • “Official” 3-hour averaged (ap) geomagnetic index • 24-hour HF point-to-point and 6-hour global HF propagation • 1-hour UHF SATCOM scintillation forecast; 6-hour scintillation outlook • 24-hour UHF SATCOM scintillation point-to-point outlook • 1-hour Single-frequency GPS error estimates • Space weather products and services: • Ionospheric Effects Characterization (IEC) Initial Capabilities Document (ICD) • Web accessible index, analysis and forecast products • User-specific tailored products • Advisory, watch and warning notification tied into users’ operation centers • Established ingest, dissemination and communication architectures • Web-based user feedback mechanisms via AFWA web pages

7. AFW Contributing Efforts • Numerical Modeling: • AFWA Space Weather Operations Center (Space WOC) runs the following models: • Technology Transition: • AFWA established dedicated space weather technology transition cell; permits streamlined conduit to transition high priority technology into AFW operations • Transitioning GAIM—IOC FY07 • UPOS improved geomagnetic activity index (Kp) algorithm successfully transitioned

8. Overall Current Capability Assessment C = Collect A = Analyze F = Forecast T = Tailor D = Disseminate M = Modeling T2 = Tech Transition

9. AFW Future Capability • Observation: • Civil-Military Enterprise: global network of ionospheric collectors • More numerous energetic particle data from military satellites (CEASE) • Global network and satellite beacon (C/NOFS) directly measure ionospheric scintillation

10. AFW Future Capability • Data Processing and Analysis: • Ionospheric data assimilation of many sources • Improved ap accuracy (UPOS Kp algorithm) • Auroral boundary and radar clutter • HF point-to-point and global propagation • Radar correction factors • UHF SATCOM scintillation • Single- and dual-frequency GPS error estimates • Hourly ionospheric activity indexes • Environmental assessment of satellite anomalies

11. Civil-Military Enterprise From this: 34 Scintillation, TEC and EDP stations To this: Civil-Military Enterprise of Several hundred Scintillation, TEC and EDP stations

12. AFW Future Capability • Forecasting: • Improved ap geomagnetic index • Physics-based 24-hour HF point-to-point and HF propagation forecasts • Physics-based UHF SATCOM scintillation forecast • Physics-based single- and dual-frequency GPS error estimates • Magnetospheric/radiation belt forecasting • Geosynchronous energetic electron forecasts • Space weather products and services: • Tailored, specific space weather information integrated directly into operators’ Command and Control and Situational Awareness systems • Integrated, net-centric dissemination and communication architectures • Web-based user feedback mechanisms via AFWA web pages

13. AFW Future Capability • Numerical Modeling: • GAIM IOC FY07 • Magnetospheric Specification and Forecast Model (MSFM) • Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM) • Technology Transition • AFWA transition of MSFM and REFM underway

14. Overall Future Capability Projection C = Collect A = Analyze F = Forecast T = Tailor D = Disseminate M = Modeling T2 = Tech Transition

15. Way Ahead • Follow IEC ICD through the Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS) process • Work the Civil-Military Enterprise with NOAA to expand access to ground-based ionospheric sensor data • Integrate space weather into war fighter command and control, and situational awareness architectures • Operationalize current research (i.e. CISM, CCMC, UPOS, etc.) as it matures, and as resources allow, to improve capability • Continue partnerships with other government agencies to advance NSWP goals and enhance national space weather capability

16. Summary • AFW: a significant contributor to NSWP goals • Activities underway continue to progress NSWP goals • Identified all-service ionospheric requirements to DoD through JCIDS process • Goal: secure funding/resources to improve space weather • Multi-agency partnerships crucial to continued advancement of space weather capabilities

17. Questions?