Sustainable Pathways 2 Project

1. Mediated Modelling Integrating the four aspects of well-being in Auckland to support Spatial Planning

2. Sustainable Pathways 2 Project Goal: to provide synergistic tools to support integrated, decision making in Auckland and Wellington. Outputs: • A system dynamics model that can be used by a wide range of stakeholders • A spatial decision support system operated by council staff Both models allow the simulation of development pathways and visualisation of future change.

3. The System Dynamics Model • This model was developed using mediated modelling and therefore reflects the views of the stakeholders involved • It integrates the four aspects of well-being (cultural, social, economic and environmental) • The feedback loops and delays can be described using a Causal Loop Diagram as follows:

4. The Story of the Auckland Region in a Causal Loop Diagram

5. Population & cultural diversity + + Education R1 Education Drives Growth + Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding Under the anticipated population growth scenarios about 60,000 new students will need education. When more children are educated, they have more chance of being employed resulting in more economic activity and therefore a more attractive region. The latter will foster more migration to the region resulting in a reinforcing feedback loop.

6. Population & cultural diversity + + Education R1 + Education Drives Growth R2 health Education Improves Health which Drives Growth + + Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding Education also improves health which in turn improves employment, the regional economy and the attractiveness of the region.

7. Population & cultural diversity + + Education R1 + Education Drives Growth R2 health Education Improves Health which Drives Growth + + Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding + R3 Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital Natural Capital + + Governance or policies solutions More people employed and an attractive regional economy increases the public funds (such as taxes due to more inhabitants) that can be derived from this economy. More funds can e.g. Be spend on the restoration of natural capital. However, it takes time to restore natural capital and derive ecosystem service benefits!

8. The next loop in this diagram is a balancing loop as population growth puts pressure on the health care system (e.g. more people, as a fraction of a growing population, require health care services. How well the healthcare services meet the demand for healthcare services, in turn impacts employment and the regional economy. If demand is higher than supply a negative impact on the attractiveness of the region emerges through increased unemployment affecting migration flows lowering the population. B1 Population & cultural diversity Population Growth sets pressure on Health System + + Education R1 - + Education Drives Growth R2 health Education Improves Health which Drives Growth + + Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding + R3 Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital Natural Capital + + Governance or policies solutions

9. B1 Population & cultural diversity Population Growth sets pressure on Health System + + Education R1 - + Education Drives Growth R2 health Education Improves Health which Drives Growth A second balancing loop is related to population growth negatively affecting natural capital though urbanisation. B2 + Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital + Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding + R3 Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital - Natural Capital + + Governance or policies solutions

10. Population density is currently chosen as a proxy for deprivation and poverty influencing “housing”. This impacts ethnic groups differently and thereby impacts on Education (and Health). + B3 Social (e.g., Housing crowding) B1 Population & cultural diversity Crowding impacts education Population Growth sets pressure on Health System + + - Education R1 - + Education Drives Growth R2 health Education Improves Health which Drives Growth B2 + Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital + Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding + R3 Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital - Natural Capital + + Governance or policies solutions

11. + B3 Social (e.g., Housing crowding) B1 Population growth also demands more transport. Population & cultural diversity Crowding impacts education Population Growth sets pressure on Health System + + - Education R1 - + Education Drives Growth R2 health Education Improves Health which Drives Growth B2 + Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital + + Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding Transport + R3 Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital - Natural Capital + + Governance or policies solutions

12. + B3 Social (e.g., Housing crowding) B1 Population & cultural diversity Crowding impacts education Population Growth sets pressure on Health System + + - Education R1 - + Education Drives Growth R2 health Education Improves Health which Drives Growth B2 + Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital + + Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding Transport + + R3 Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital - Natural Capital + + Natural Capital affects active mode in transport, which impacts on Health, i.e. Reducing the fraction of young and elderly requiring health care services. Governance or policies solutions

13. + B3 Social (e.g., Housing crowding) B1 Population & cultural diversity Crowding impacts education Population Growth sets pressure on Health System + + - Education R1 - + Education Drives Growth R2 health ? Education Improves Health which Drives Growth B2 + Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital + + Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding Transport + + R3 Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital - Natural Capital + + Governance or policies solutions Transport impacts health through active mode (and emissions).

14. External factors (e.g., climate change) impact population growth. External Factors (e.g., climate change) + B3 + Social (e.g., Housing crowding) B1 Population & cultural diversity Crowding impacts education Population Growth sets pressure on Health System + + - Education R1 - + Education Drives Growth R2 health ? Education Improves Health which Drives Growth B2 + Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital + + Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding Transport + + R3 Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital - Natural Capital + + Governance or policies solutions

15. External Factors (e.g., climate change) + B3 + Social (e.g., Housing crowding) B1 Population & cultural diversity Crowding impacts education Population Growth sets pressure on Health System + + - - Education R1 - + Education Drives Growth R2 health ? Education Improves Health which Drives Growth B2 + Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital + + Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding Cultural Transport ? + + R3 Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital - Natural Capital + + Governance or policies solutions Reminder to link the “Cultural sector” into this causal loop diagram

16. External Factors (e.g., climate change) + B3 + Social (e.g., Housing crowding) B1 Population & cultural diversity Crowding impacts education Population Growth sets pressure on Health System + + - Education R1 - + Education Drives Growth R2 health ? Education Improves Health which Drives Growth B2 + Population Growth sets pressure on Natural Capital + + Employment Economics Attractiveness Funding Cultural Transport ? + + R3 Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital - Natural Capital + + Governance or policies solutions THE END!

17. Conclusions • Interlinkages and time lags are important to future outcomes. • The Causal Loop Diagram is one way to visualise the important linkages and time lags built into the system dynamics model. • The Story underlying the Causal Loop Diagram allows stakeholders to communicate the interlinkages and time lags to others.