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Heat Roadmap Europe

Heat Roadmap Europe. Professor Henrik Lund Aalborg University. Pre-study 2 Heat Roadmap Europe. Aalborg University David Connolly Brian Vad Mathiesen Poul Alberg Østergaard Bernd Möller Steffen Nielsen Henrik Lund Planenergi Daniel Trier. Halmstad University Urban Persson

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Heat Roadmap Europe

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  1. Heat Roadmap Europe Professor Henrik Lund Aalborg University

  2. Pre-study 2Heat Roadmap Europe Aalborg University David Connolly Brian Vad Mathiesen Poul Alberg Østergaard Bernd Möller Steffen Nielsen Henrik Lund Planenergi Daniel Trier Halmstad University Urban Persson Sven Werner Ecofys Germany GmbH Jan Grözinger ThosmasBoersmans Michelle Bosquet

  3. Motivation Consensus/general: ”Combined heat & power (CHP) and district heating (DH) are important” • Energy Road Map 2050 (EU commission) • Road Map 2050 (McKinsey et.al) • The energy report – 100% renewable energy by 2050 (WWF) • Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 (IEA) • World Energy Outlook (IEA) • Deciding the Future – Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 . . . but fail to quantify to which extent these options can be used in the future energy system . . . The European Commission in the Energy Roadmap 2050 communication: “An analysis of more ambitious energy efficiency measures and cost-optimal policy is required. Energy efficiency has to follow its economic potential. This includes questions on to what extent urban and spatial planning can contribute to saving energy in the medium and long term; how to find the cost-optimal policy choice between insulating buildings to use less heating and cooling and systematically using the waste heat of electricity generation in combined heat and power plants.”

  4. Methodology GIS Mapping Energy System Modelling

  5. GIS based information Urban areas (Heating Demands) Power and Heat Generation Waste Management Industrial waste heat potential Geothermal heat Solar Thermal

  6. Energy System Analyses Model www.EnergyPLAN.eu

  7. Step 1: (Energy Efficiency) • Increasing DH to 30% then 50% • Increasing CHP • Using Oil/Natural gas in CC-CHP Showing DH benefits in 2 steps Step 2: (Utilise waste and RE sources) • Industrial waste heat • Waste incineration • Geothermal heat • Large-scale Solar Thermal

  8. Future: EU Energy Roadmap 2050 • Completed for the European Commission in 2011, by the National Technical University in Athens • Presents 6 energy scenarios for the EU27: • Reference: Business-as-usual • CPI: Updated business-as-usual • EE • CCS • Nuclear • High RE

  9. 2030/2050 Modelling EU Energy Roadmap 2050 Current Policy Initiatives (CPI)

  10. HRE1 Conclusion: 50% DH and CHP • Decrease primary energy supply and especially fossil fuels and CO2 emissions • Decrease annual costs of energy in Europe by approximately €14 Billion in 2050 • Create additional 220,000 jobs over the period 2013-2050 • Further integration of RES LESS FUEL LESS MONEY MORE EU JOBS MORE RE

  11. Cost and Jobs: • Saved fuel costs of annual approx. 30 Billion EUR in 2050 • In total cost are reduced by 14 Billion EUR in 2050 • Additional investments of a total of 500 billion EUR • Additional jobs from to 2013 to 2050: 8-9 million man-year in total Approx. 220,000 jobs.

  12. Future: EU Energy Roadmap 2050 • Completed for the European Commission in 2011, by the National Technical University in Athens • Presents 6 energy scenarios for the EU27: • Reference: Business-as-usual • CPI: Updated business-as-usual • Energy Efficiency (EU-EE) • Carbon Capture & Storage • Nuclear • High Renewable Energy HRE2: Is district heating a good idea if we implement a lot of energy efficiency in the buildings?

  13. Energy Modelling EU Energy Roadmap 2050 Energy Efficiency (EE)

  14. Key Measures in EU-EE Scenario • High renovation rates for existing buildings due to better/more financing and planned obligations for public buildings (more than 2% refurbishment per year) • Passive houses standards after 2020 • Obligation of utilities to achieve energy savings in their customers' energy use over 1.5% per year (up to 2020) • Strong minimum requirements for energy generation, transmission and distribution including obligation that existing energy generation installations are upgraded to the

  15. EU-EE Scenario Heat Demand Concerns • Hot water demand decreases by 50% between 2010 and 2050 • Specific Heat Demands reduce by 70% between 2010 and 2050

  16. EU-EE Scenario63% Drop in Heat DemandsCost B€300/year 2010-2050

  17. HRE-EE Hot Water Growth = +16% • Residential and non-residential buildings is expected to grow by 32% and 42% respectively between 2015 and 2050 • Population will grow by 3.2% between 2010 and 2050. • Individuals are likely to take more showers and baths in the future than they do today. • People are not expected to live with one another as much in the future. • At present, there are regions in Europe where the use of hot water is limited due to technical and financial limitations.

  18. HRE-EE Space Heating = -47%

  19. Implementing District Heating • Individual boilers are replaced by district heating: • 30% in 2030 and 50% in 2050 • Individual heat pumps are not replaced • Individual cooling units are replaced with district cooling. • 10% in 2030 and 20% in 2050 • Natural cooling and absorption heat pumps are both used.

  20. Heat Demand by Source

  21. Implementing District Heating • New DH production facilities are constructed: • CHP, boilers, heat pumps, and thermal storage. • Additional resources can now be utilised by the district heating network: • Industrial surplus heat: 100 TWh/year • Direct geothermal heat: 100 TWh/year • Waste incineration: 150 TWh/year • Large-scale solar thermal: 100 TWh/year • Wind power for large-scale heat pumps: 65 TWh/year

  22. EU-EE vs. HRE-EE DH Supply

  23. Results

  24. EU-EE vs. HRE-EEPrimary Energy Supply & CO2 Brussels, Belgium

  25. EU-EE vs. HRE-EEFossil Fuels Brussels, Belgium

  26. EU-EE vs. HRE-EE Additional Resources Brussels, Belgium

  27. EU-EE vs. HRE-EEHeat & Cooling Costs -15% Brussels, Belgium

  28. Case Study: Århus

  29. Conclusions • District heating is an attractive solution in areas with a high heat density • District heating can be seen as an efficiency measure similar to reductions in heat demand, because it enables the use of fuels in a more efficient way • Heat reductions in buildings can be combined with district heating so that it is competitive with individual solutions

  30. Conclusions (1) • If we continue under a business-as-usual scenario, then district heating can: • Reduce the PES • Reduce the CO2 emissions • Reduce the costs of the energy system • Use more renewable energy

  31. Conclusions (2) • If we implement a lot of energy efficiency measures, then district heating will: Meet the same goals, ie: • Utilise the same amount of fossil fuels • Enable the same CO2 emission reductions • Cost approximately 10% less

  32. How to get the report…. www.heatroadmap.eu

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