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RASCAL 4.0 Radiological Assessment System for Consequence Analysis

RASCAL 4.0 Radiological Assessment System for Consequence Analysis. National Radiological Emergency Preparedness Conference March 30, 2010 George Athey, Athey Consulting James (Van) Ramsdell, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Part 3 - Lou Brandon, Nuclear Regulatory Commission

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RASCAL 4.0 Radiological Assessment System for Consequence Analysis

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  1. RASCAL 4.0Radiological Assessment System for Consequence Analysis National Radiological Emergency Preparedness Conference March 30, 2010 George Athey, Athey Consulting James (Van) Ramsdell, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Part 3 - Lou Brandon, Nuclear Regulatory Commission Paul Holland, Exelon Energy RASCAL 4.0 1

  2. Contrast w/RASCAL 3.0.5 Highlight new features – new ATD model Case Study - Fixed Parameters Byron NPP, Core uncovered 1 hr 2% release per day, no spray, no filters activity released – 9.5 E5 Curies 3.0.5 -- 8.9 E5 Curies 4.0 Case Study – Varying Parameters Stability Classes B and E 2 & 8 mph wind speeds, no precip 2

  3. Byron Unit 2: Source Term 3

  4. Release Pathway 4

  5. Release Pathway Options Minimum 10 m release height is optimum model default 5

  6. Meteorology 6

  7. Calculate Default 8 hour dose calculation 7

  8. Results New Check this 8

  9. Activity Released 6% lower RASCAL 3.0.5 RASCAL 4.0 Notice Cs-137* 9

  10. RASCAL 3.0.5 4.0 TEDE (top) & CDE Values about 1/3 lower 10

  11. New options Check TEDE 11

  12. 3.0.5 (left) vs 4.0 TEDE3.9remvs1.2rem at 2 mi1.3remvs0.38 at 5 mi 8 mph, E Stability 12

  13. 3.0.5 (left) vs 4.0 Thyroid23remvs5.7rem at 5 mi8.9remvs2.4rem at 10 mi 8 mph, E Stability 13

  14. 3.0.5 (left) vs 4.0 TEDE3.3remvs2.3rem at 2 mi1.9remvs0.65 at 5 mi 2 mph, E Stability 14

  15. 3.0.5 (left) vs 4.0 Thyroid36remvs13 at 5 mi 15remvs3.2 at 10 mi 2 mph, E Stability 15

  16. 3.0.5 (left) vs 4.0 TEDE2.1remvs0.44rem at 2 mi0.88remvs0.23 at 5 mi 2 mph, B Stability 16

  17. 3.0.5 (left) vs 4.0 Thyroid16remvs3.9 at 5 mi 5.9remvs1.2 at 10 mi 2 mph, B Stability 17

  18. 3.0.5 (left) vs 4.0 TEDE2.4 rem vs 0.33 rem at 2 mi0.64 rem vs 0.11 at 5 mi 8 mph, B Stability 18

  19. 3.0.5 (left) vs 4.0 Thyroid11remvs1.6 at 5 mi 4.0remvs0.83 at 10 mi 8 mph, B Stability 19

  20. Click Cells for Detail New Feature 8 mph, B Stability 148 µCi/m2 at 3.0 miles 20

  21. Radionuclide Deposition Sampling required before decision making 21

  22. Click Cells for Detail Specific Radionuclides 30 µCi/m2 I-131at 3.0 miles 22

  23. Release still in progress but calculation stopped at 8 hr. 23

  24. Monitored Mixtures Can now enter I-131 equivalent release rate 24

  25. Release Pathway – Monitored, Filtered Release starts 1:00 AM Duration expected 4 hours 25

  26. 2 mph, E Stability, Results Check this 26

  27. RASCAL 3.0.5 Both 1000 Ci/s nobles 1 Ci/s I-131 Cesiums corrected, only I-131 & I daughters RASCAL 4.0 27

  28. FM to Dose Enter sample data 28

  29. Result Compare to: Deposition time Starts at 4 days 29

  30. TF values about 80% RASCAL values Compare sample data-slide 79 Dose unit mrem

  31. Relocation DRLs (mR/h) DRL map contours shrink with decay as days pass 31

  32. On the Horizon… Automated weather entry Work with DOE – TurboFRMAC consistency Work with DTRA – HPAC consistency Detailed verification and validation State of the Art Reactor Consequence Analysis (SOARCA) source terms Create New Reactor models for RASCAL Continued progress on future model improvements 32

  33. SOARCA Station Blackout • Based on MELCOR run at Sandia • PWR Scenario – earthquake – no AC power 1st cladding release - 16 h Containment design leakage increase – 28 h • BWR Scenario 1st fuel cladding release – 10 h iodine release exceeds 1% inventory – 20 h • Scenario ready to incorporate into RASCAL 33

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