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Health Effects from Chernobyl

Health Effects from Chernobyl. Dr Ian Fairlie Consultant on Radiation in the Environment London United Kingdom. Chernobyl (April 26,1986). “..the foremost nuclear catastrophe in human history” IAEA (1996)

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Health Effects from Chernobyl

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  1. Health Effects fromChernobyl Dr Ian FairlieConsultant on Radiation in the EnvironmentLondonUnited Kingdom

  2. Chernobyl (April 26,1986) • “..the foremost nuclear catastrophe in human history” IAEA (1996) • “..its magnitude and scope, the size of the affected populations, and its long-term consequences make it, by far, the worst industrial disaster on record” IAEA/WHO (2005) • “..radioactivity released ~200 times that from Hiroshima or Nagasaki” WHO/IPHECA (1995)

  3. Updated doses from UNSCEAR 2008

  4. Estimated Deaths

  5. Chernobyl: observed health effects thyroid cancers leukaemias other solid cancers non-cancer effects minisatellite mutations mental health + psychosocial

  6. Thyroid Cancer Incidence(in those who were children and adolescents in 1986) source:Jacob et al (2005)

  7. How many excess thyroid cancers will occur? • So far >6,000 • Cardis et al estimate 18,000 in Belarus alone (assuming a constant risk over life)

  8. Leukaemia in W Europe • some reports of increased incidence of infant leukaemia • not correlated with dose • uncertainties in dose estimates • European Childhood Leukaemia-Lymphoma Incidence Study (IARC) • possible in utero effect

  9. Leukaemia in Clean-up Workers source: Ivanov (1997)

  10. Solid Cancers RR in cancer incidence (for ages 20-85 per 100,000 population) in Belarus liquidators 1997-2000, compared with control adults in least contaminated area (Vitebsk) source: Okeanov et al (2004)

  11. Cardiovascular Diseases • seen in A-Bomb survivors (Pierce et al, 2003) ERR/Sv = 0.17 • (Ivanovet al, 2000) study of Russian cleanup workers, ERR/Sv = 0.54 ie comparable to A-bomb survivors

  12. Heritable EffectsDubrova (1996, 1997, 2002) • germlineminisatellite mutation rates • 2 x increase in groups from Belarus and Ukraine • induction in fathers not mothers

  13. Displaced Persons (UNDP 2002)

  14. Chernobyl: conclusions • terrible consequences • health effects still occurring • different health effects appearing • need more research + funding • need to question denials by many governments

  15. George Santayanaphilosopher (1863 - 1952) ...governments that are unable to learn from history are condemned to repeat it...

  16. References • Brenner DJ, Doll R, Goodhead DT, Hall EJ, Land CE, Little JB, Lubing JH, Preston DL, Preston JR, Puskin JS, Ron E, Sachs RK, Samet JM, Setlow RB and Zaider M (2003) Cancer risks attributable to low doses of ionizing radiation: assessing what we really know. (2003) PNAS Nov 25, 2003, vol. 100 no. 24 13761–13766 • Cardis E (2005) Cancer effects of the Chernobyl accident (presentation at IAEA/WHO Conference ‘Environmental and Health Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident’) • CERRIE (2004) Report of the Committee Examining Radiation Risks of Internal Emitters London, October 2004 www.cerrie.org (accessed February 12, 2006) • Day R, Gorin MB and Eller AW (1995) Prevalence of lens changes in Ukrainian children residing around Chernobyl Health Physics 68 632-42 • Dubrova YE, Grant G, Chumak AA, Stezhka VA, Karakasian AN (2002) Elevated minisatellite mutation rate in the post-Chernobyl families from Ukraine. Am J Human Genet 71:801-809 • Dubrova YE, Nesterov VN, Krouchinsky NG, Ostapenko VA, Neumann R, Neil DL and Jeffreys AJ (1996) Human minisatellite mutation rate after the Chernobyl accident. Nature 380 683-686 • Dubrova YE, Nesterov VN, Krouchinsky NG, Ostapenko VA, Vergnaud G, Giraudeau, Buard J and Jeffreys AJ (1997) Further evidence for elevated human minisatellite mutation rate in Belarus eight years after the Chernobyl accident. Mutat. Res. 381, 267-278 • European Commission (1998) Atlas of Caesium Deposition on Europe after the Chernobyl Accident. European Commission. EUR 19810 EN RU. Brussels • Goossens LHJ, Harper FT, Harrison JD, Hora SC, Kraan BCP, Cooke RM (1998) Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis: Uncertainty Assessment for Internal Dosimetry: Main Report. Prepared for U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC 20555-0001, USA. And for Commission of the European Communities, DG XII and XI, B-I049 Brussels Belgium. NUREG/CR-6571 EUR 16773. • IAEA/WHO (2005a) Health Effects of the Chernobyl Accident and Special Health Care Programmes. Report of the UN Chernobyl Forum Expert Group “Health” (EGH) Working draft. July 26 2005 • IAEA/WHO (2005b) Environmental Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident and their Remediation. Report of the UN Chernobyl Forum Expert Group “Environment” (EGE) Working draft. August 2005 • IAEA/WHO/EC (1996) One Decade After Chernobyl: Summing up the Consequences of the Accident. • Ivanov VK et al (2000) Radiation-epidemiology analysis of incidence of non-cancer diseases among the Chernobyl liquidators. Health Physics 78, 495-501 • Ivanov VK, Tsyb AF, Gorsky AI, et al (1997) Thyroid cancer among "liquidators" of the Chernobyl accident. Br J Radiol 70: 937-41 • Jacob P, Meckbach R, Ulanovski A, Schotola C and Pröhl G (2005) Thyroid exposure of Belarusian and Ukrainian children due to the Chernobyl accident and resulting thyroid cancer risk. GSF-Bericht 01/05, Neuherberg: GSF-Forschungszentrum mbH, 72S.; mit Anhang • Meara J (2002) Getting the Message Across: Is Communicating the Risk Worth it? J of Radiation Protection Vol 22 pp 79-85 • Okeanov AE, Sosnovskaya EY, Priatkina OP (2004) A national cancer registry to assess trends after the Chernobyl accident. Swiss Med Wkly 134:645-9 • Preston DL, Shimuzu Y, Pierce DA, Suyama A and Mabuchhi K (2003) Studies of mortality of Atomic Bomb survivors. Report 13: Solid Cancer and Non-cancer Disease Mortality: 1950-1997 Radiation Research 160, 381-407 • Pukkala E, Poliakov S, Ryzhov A, Kesminiene A, Drozdovich V, Kovgan L, Kyyrönen P, Malakhova I V, Gulak L and Cardis E Breast cancer in Belarus and Ukraine after the Chernobyl Accident. (2006) International Journal of Cancer, in press • Robb JD (1994) Estimates of Radiation Detriment in a UK Population. NRPB Report R-260 National Radiological Protection Board, Chilton, Oxon • Thorne MC (2003) Background radiation: natural and man-made. J Radiol Prot vol 23(1) pp 29-42 • UNSCEAR (2000) United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation Report to the General Assembly, with Scientific Annexes.(New York:UN) Annex B • US DoE (1987) Report of Interlaboratory Task Group. Health and Environmental Consequences of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Accident. US Department of Energy DOE/ER-0332 NTIS Springfield VA 22161 • WHO/IPHECA (1995) Health Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident, Results of the International Programme on the Health Effects of the Chernobyl Accident (IPHECA). Summary Report. World Health Organisation.

  17. Reading List Books • Caufield C (1990) Multiple Exposures: Chronicles of the Radiation Age. Penguin Books. London UK • Greene G (1999) The Woman Who Knew Too Much. University of Michigan Press. Ann Arbor, MI, US • Proctor RN (1995) Cancer Wars: How Politics Shapes What We Know and Don’t Know about Radiation. Basic Books. New York, NY, US Articles • Greenberg M (1991) The Evolution of Attitudes to the Human Hazards of Ionising Radiation and to its Investigators. Am J of Industrial Medicine Vol 20 pp 717-721 • Rose G (1991) Environmental Health: Problems and Prospects. J of Royal College of Physicians of London Vol 25 No 1, pp 48-52 • Stewart AM (1991) Evaluation of Delayed Effects of Ionising Radiation: an Historical Perspective. Am J of Industrial Medicine Vol 20 pp 805-810

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