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Carrying Capacity and the Human Population. Understanding Human Population Growth. The earliest census in the 17 th century estimated human population at 680 million At that point growth was slow, but then it began to grow more rapidly and the doubling rate sped up
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Understanding Human Population Growth • The earliest census in the 17th century estimated human population at 680 million • At that point growth was slow, but then it began to grow more rapidly and the doubling rate sped up • Time required for the population to double • Why?
Understanding Human Population Growth • Growth rate peaked in the 1960’s at 2.06% • Now is about 1.04% • Growth occurs because crude birth rate exceeds crude death rate • Crude: based out of 1,000 and are not adjusted for reproductive age structure • More importantly growth occurs because the death rate is dropping faster than the birth rate
The Patterns of Births and Deaths • Crude death drops due to: • Sanitation • Clean water • Readily available nutrition • Clothing • Shelter • Medical advances • Vaccination • Antibiotics • Other treatments
The Patterns of Births and Deaths • Birth rates decline less rapidly • Due to: • Economics • Culture • Politics • Religion
The Patterns of Births and Deaths • Birthrate is also impacted by how many women are their reproductive years • Total fertility rate (TFR) • Average number of children a woman will bear over her lifetime • Replacement level fertility • Total fertility rate at which a population remains constant
The Patterns of Births and Deaths • Fertility rates are affected by several factors • Accessibility to contraception • Education of women • Employment opportunities for women • Costs to raise children • Infant mortality rates • Affluence
Age Structure and Population Momentum • Population growth is also impacted by the distribution of the population in • Age classes • Number of males and females in an age group • Age structure • Distribution of population among age classes
Age Structure and Population Momentum • Best understood by looking at population histograms • Diagrams that represent the number of males and females in various age groups
Age Structure and Population Momentum • Population momentum • Built-in potential for population growth due to a large number of individuals entering reproductive age
Age Structure and Population Momentum • Slow or no growth • Baby boomers • People born in the US between 1946-1964
Age Structure and Population Momentum • Decline
Age Structure and Population Momentum • Each type presents challenges based on the age-dependency ratio • (number of people under 15 + number of people over 65) number of people between 15 and 65 • Ages 15-60 hold jobs, pay taxes and support others • Higher ratios indicate an aging population • What is that challenge?
Modifying the Idea of Carrying Capacity for People • Does CC apply to the human population? • How do we modify it?
The Malthusian Dilemma • Thomas Mathus wrote Essay on Population • Described that the environment will limit human population growth • Has that happened? • Why not?
The Maximum Number of Individuals and the Demographic Transition • Difficult to have accurate CC for human population • Countries use resources at various rates and for nonessential purposes
The Maximum Number of Individuals and the Demographic Transition • Demographic transition • Process of moving from high birthrates and death rates to high birthrates and low death rates to finally low birthrates and deathrates
The Maximum Number of Individuals and the Demographic Transition • Demographic transition • What factors impact a population to go through this?
A Given Area of the Environment • Humans have modified their environment to ensure survival • Could we survive as hunters and gatherers? • What is the major modification that has allowed our population to continue to grow? • Agriculture • Expanding into unused areas
Maintained Indefinitely • Sustainable development • Economic activities that meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of the future to meet their needs • Strong sustainability • Criterion that prohibits human actions degrading the environment or using environmental goods/services faster than they are generated by the environment • Weak sustainability • Principle that actions that degrade the environment or use a natural resource or a waste-processing service faster than it can be generated can be sustainable if these losses are offset by an increase in either economic capital or social institutions • Which one do you think is best?
Identifying the Notion of Limits in Environmental Debates • Cannot look at only the environment, we must also look at economics • Two views • Resource pessimist • Resource optimists
Identifying the Notion of Limits in Environmental Debates • Resource pessimist
Identifying the Notion of Limits in Environmental Debates • Resource optimists
Identifying the Notion of Limits in Environmental Debates • The answers aren’t easy and can be debated from both sides • Spend a moment reflecting on your own perspective
