Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

1. Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2012 January 10, 2012

2. Class News • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12 • 2008 and 2010 ClassOn Line: • http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action • First Reading: Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html • And in particular two subsections • Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm • Simple climate models http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm

3. First Reading Response • Summary for Policy Makers (IPCC-AR4) • Reading responses of roughly one page (single-spaced). The responses do not need to be elaborate, but they should also not summarize the reading. They should be used by you as think pieces to refine your questions and insight from the readings. They must be submitted via CTools at least two hours before the start of lecture for the relevant readings.

4. Today • Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem • What is (and is not) “science?” • How is (thinking about) the response to Global Warming organized? • Relation of climate change and other big ticket items.

5. Glimpse into the issues of Climate Change • Some history • Some iconic figures • Some observations • Some global climate predictions

6. Some history (see Weart, AIP) • The first calculations of the ability of water vapor and carbon dioxide to warm the Earth’s surface are often attributed to Fourier. (I will call this the greenhouse effect.) • Significant improvements to the quantification of the warming due to greenhouse gases is attributed to Tyndall. • Arrhenius in the late 1800s made estimates of the impact of doubled carbon dioxide.

7. Starting point: Scientific foundation (1) • The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on fundamental principles of the conservation of energy, momentum, and mass. • The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on an enormous and diverse number of observations.

8. Starting point: A fundamental conclusion • Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we observe that with virtual certainty • The average global temperature of the Earth’s surface has increased due to the human-caused addition of gases into the atmosphere that hold heat close to the surface.

9. Starting point: A fundamental conclusion • Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we predict with virtual certainty • The average global temperature of the Earth’s surface will continue to rise because of the continued increase of human-caused addition into the atmosphere of gases that hold heat close to the surface. • Historically stable masses of ice on land will melt. • Sea level will rise. • The weather will change.

10. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas Data and more information

11. IPCC 2001 Basic physics of temperature increase is simple and quantifiable.. Uncertainty of individual models Uncertainty due to models using a set of emission scenarios Observation uncertainty Note: There is consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C)

12. Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC 2001

13. Projections of Temperature in 2100 IPCC 2007 Projection of Global Average Surface Temperature (WG_1, SummPolMaker, Fig. 5) Projections: The Surface will warm, Ice will melt, Sea level will rise, Weather will change. Geographical Distribution of Warming 2090-2099 (Scenario A1B: Syn_Report, SummPolMaker, Fig. 6) Figures from 2007 IPCC Report

14. Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2005http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/ See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

15. Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2008http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/ See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

16. IPCC 2007: The last ~100 years

17. Correlated behavior of different parameters Fig. 2.5. (State of Climate 2009) Time series from a range of indicators that would be expected to correlate strongly with the surface record. Note that stratospheric cooling is an expected consequence of greenhouse gas increases. A version of this figure with full references is available at www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-climate/.

18. IPCC projections for the next 100 years.

19. That’s a glimpse into climate change • We’ve seen this carbon dioxide curve, with carbon dioxide increasing. • I’ve told you that carbon dioxide holds heat close to the surface. • I showed curves and graphs of global averaged surface temperature, past, present, and future. • Showed sea level and snow melt.

20. So what do you think? • What are the strengths of what has been presented? • What are the weaknesses of what has been presented? • Anything intriguing or especially interesting about what has been presented?

21. Temperature Water Precipitation Evaporation Humidity Air Composition Air quality Aerosols Carbon dioxide Winds Clouds / Sunlight Droughts Floods Extreme Weather The impact of climate change is Water for Ecosystems Water for People Water for Energy Water for Physical Climate What parameters/events do we care about?

22. Today • Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem • What is (and is not) “science?” • How is (thinking about) the response to Global Warming organized? • Relation of climate change and other big ticket items.

23. Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate

24. Scientific investigation of climate change • What is scientific investigation? • Scientific method • How do we get started?

25. What is science, the scientific method? • Elements of the scientific method • Observations of some phenomenon • Identification of patterns, relationships and the generation of suppositions, followed by hypotheses • In principle, hypotheses are testable: • Experiments: cause and effect • Prediction instead of experiments? • Development of constructs, theory, which follow from successful hypothesis. • Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look like? • Development of tests, experiments that challenge the hypotheses and predictions. • Validate or refute theory and elements from which the theory is constructed.

26. What is science, the scientific method? • Science is a process of investigation • The results of scientific investigation are the generation of • Knowledge within a prescribed levels of constraints • Uncertainty: How sure are we about that knowledge? • Science does not generate a systematic exposition of facts • Facts are, perhaps knowledge, whose uncertainty is so low, that we feel certain. • Theories develop out of tested hypotheses. • Theory is NOT conjecture • Theory is subject to change • There is constant challenge and testing • Science requires validation • Requires that hypotheses and theories are testable • Requires transparency so that independent investigators can repeat tests and develop new tests.

27. What is science, the scientific method? • Science is a process of investigation • Requires transparency so that independent investigators can repeat tests and develop new tests. • Do you feel that scientific investigation of the climate is “transparent?” • Do you feel that independent investigators affirm basic conclusions?

28. Science, Scientific Method • Scientists DO impart their personalities and beliefs onto their results • But the fact that it is independently testable, ultimately, challenges this potential prejudice.

29. Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONS THEORY PREDICTION

30. Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONS PROCESSES MODELING

31. Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONS THEORY EXPERIMENT

32. OBSERVATIONS THEORY EXPERIMENT Scientific Investigation Problem Solving Unification Integration (perhaps not unique) Knowledge Generation Reduction Disciplinary

33. What is science, the scientific method? • We always have these attributes in the scientific method • Observations of some phenomenon • Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look like? • How do we affect “control?” • What is “control?” • We are seeking cause and effect. • Validation, can I predict the behavior? • Can I describe this well enough for someone else to repeat it?

34. Let “science” sit for a while.

35. Today • Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem • What is (and is not) “science?” • How is (thinking about) the response to Global Warming organized? • Relation of climate change and other big ticket items.

36. What to do? What to do? • Let’s assume for a moment that we have convincing observations of climate change, convincing predictions of climate change, and that we will need to respond to the climate change. • How do we organize this problem?

37. Science, Mitigation, Adaptation Framework Adaptation is responding to changes that might occur from added CO2 It’s not an either / or argument. Mitigation is controlling the amount of CO2 we put in the atmosphere.

38. Some definitions (more… ) • Mitigation: The notion of limiting or controlling emissions of greenhouse gases so that the total accumulation is limited. • Adaptation: The notion of making changes in the way we do things to adapt to changes in climate. • Resilience: The ability to adapt. • Geo-engineering: The notion that we can manage the balance of total energy of the atmosphere, ocean, ice, and land to yield a stable climate in the presence of changing greenhouse gases.

39. A point or two • Mitigation and adaptation have different characteristics. • A major one is the amount of time for them to be effective. • The very long time scales of the climate change problem mean that any advantages of controlling the increase of CO2 are perceived many years after the action to control the increase. • Cause and effect are difficult to evaluate • Cost and benefit are difficult to evaluate • Adaptation is far easier to evaluate.

40. A point of tension • The discussion of mitigation and adaptation is one of the places where we see tension of beliefs. There was, for some time, the idea that if we talked about adaptation, then we would dismiss mitigation. Plus to talk about adaptation would be to admit there is climate change. • Only recently that adaptation has entered into discourse. • What about global geo-engineering?

41. Today • Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem • What is (and is not) “science?” • How is (thinking about) the response to Global Warming organized? • Relation of climate change and other big ticket items.

42. Relationship of Climate Change to Other Things

43. Climate Change Relationships • We have a clear relationship between energy use and climate change. CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas

44. World primary energy supply in 1973 and 2003 * Source: International Energy Agency 2005 megaton oil equivalent

45. Climate Change Relationships • Consumption // Population // Energy ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE POPULATION SOCIETAL SUCCESS CONSUMPTION

46. Climate Change Relationships • Climate change is linked to consumption. • The economy depends on us consuming • Consuming generates the waste that causes climate change. • The consumption that has set us on this road of global warming has been by a relatively small percentage of the population. • Wealth is an important variable. • Hence, social equity is an issue.

47. Some challenges • If it was not clear when you woke up this morning, climate change touches every element of society. • It sits in relationship with some other fundamental societal challenges. • Solutions will be required to infiltrate all elements of society. • What sort of things scale to all society?

48. Belief System Values Perception Cultural Mandate Societal Needs What are the pieces which we must consider?(what are the consequences) ...???... Security Food Environmental National Societal Success Standard of Living POLICY ECONOMICS ENERGY RELIGION LAW SOCIAL JUSTICE “BUSINESS” PUBLIC HEALTH information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, … SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

49. That is the preface for the course. • We will first break the scientific investigation down into pieces. • Theory • Observations • Prediction • Attribution • Impacts • We will look at the links of climate change to the other parts of the problem. • There is not a simple “solution;” we will not solve this problem and walk away from it. • We will be required to manage the climate • We will define ways forward.

50. Next time: Fundamental Science of Climate