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ADAPT Project: Towards an integrated decision tool for adaptation measures Case study: floods

ADAPT Project: Towards an integrated decision tool for adaptation measures Case study: floods. Economic aspects Fourth Follow Up Committee Meeting Uccle, 12 November 2008 Eve Giron CEESE-ULB Delphine Sacré CEESE-ULB Walter Hecq CEESE-ULB. Some reminders

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ADAPT Project: Towards an integrated decision tool for adaptation measures Case study: floods

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  1. ADAPT Project: Towards an integrated decision tool for adaptation measuresCase study: floods Economic aspects Fourth Follow Up Committee Meeting Uccle, 12 November 2008 Eve Giron CEESE-ULB Delphine Sacré CEESE-ULB Walter Hecq CEESE-ULB

  2. Some reminders • Identification of categories of flood damage Physical water contact No physical water contact - Buildings - Household goods - Cars - … • Loss of life • Biodiversity loss • Spread of pollution & toxics • Stress / disruption of households & populations • Quality loss of water • … • Production losses • Market disturbances • Impact on land values • Lost income • … • Reduced competitiveness • Increased vulnerability of economic actors • Worry about the future • Stress • …

  3. Some reminders • Identification of categories of flood damage • Statistical analysis Heavy rains from 25 January to 28 February 2002 (Ourthe)

  4. B) State of progress : Damage functions (buildings) • Literature analyses • Y = 2*x² + 2*x « Atlas du Rhin 2001 » • Y = HV * ² wd “B. Büchele & al., 2006” • Y = 7119,37 * wd + 12988,66 Collection “étude & synthèse” • Y = damages (in relative or absolute term) • X = wd (m) • Wd = Water depth (m) • HV = House value (€)

  5. B) State of progress : Damage functions • Adaptation with database of our case studies and choice of the damage function • x = water level recorded during the flood in “m” • Y = damage percentage in % • (Example of the study of « Atlas du Rhin 2001 ») • Estimation of the house value (HV) ( Relative Absolute) • Y = (2x2 + 2x )*HV/100 • Validation with real data (Disaster Fund) Y = 2x2 + 2x

  6. B) State of progress: Estimation of the house value • House value • First idea: cadastral income (CI) not representative • Real value = CI / 5,3 % • Empirical functions : • HV (€) = 125000 + 112 * CI (€) • HV (€) = S (m²) * 39,4 (€/m²) * 33 C F = 0,6

  7. B) Damage functions : Results €

  8. Thank you for your attention

  9. B) Damage functions : Results Map of economic damages Extend degree :

  10. The ADAPT-project

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