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The Cuban Missile Crisis

The Cuban Missile Crisis. CHST 540 May 26, 2005. American Policy Towards Cuba. 1960: US reduces Cuban sugar quota, then imposes embargo; Cuba nationalizes all US holdings January 1961: diplomatic relations severed April 1961: Bay of Pigs invasion; US imposes embargo

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The Cuban Missile Crisis

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  1. The Cuban Missile Crisis CHST 540 May 26, 2005

  2. American Policy Towards Cuba • 1960: US reduces Cuban sugar quota, then imposes embargo; Cuba nationalizes all US holdings • January 1961: diplomatic relations severed • April 1961: Bay of Pigs invasion; US imposes embargo • January 1962: at US urging, Cuba expelled from Organization of American States (OAS)

  3. Cuban-Soviet Ties • Cuba turns to the USSR • Cuba had not been granted entrance to the Warsaw Pact • Agreed to Operation Anadyr to deter US and to strengthen “moral defense” of sovereignty Castro & Khrushchev, 1960

  4. CIA Assessments • ‘The Military Build-up in Cuba’ (NIE of Sept. 19, 1962) • misjudged Khrushchev’s will to gamble • missed crucial evidence of deployment of Soviet medium and intermediate range ballistic missiles to Cuba • failed to link construction of SAM anti-aircraft sites and presence of Soviet combat forces to deployment of ballistic missiles

  5. Khrushchev’s Gamble • Policy of bluff? • Deterrent (to American invasion)? • Balancing move?

  6. The Crisis Begins • October 14, 1962: first evidence of Soviet MRBM sites in Cuba (PSALM) • EX-COMM (Executive Committee of NSC) meets • Armed forces readiness raised to unprecedented DEFCON 2 • October 22, 1962: Kennedy goes public

  7. Role of Intelligence: Imagery • National Photographic Intelligence Center (NPIC), headed by Arthur Lundahl • U-2 reconnaissance flights

  8. Imint: MRBM Launch Site 1

  9. Imint: Close-ups of Missile Sites Close-up of missile transporters and missile-ready tents Close-up of missile preparation area (taken from altitude of 250 feet)

  10. Role of Intelligence: Human • KGB Colonel Oleg Penkovsky • Run jointly by the CIA and SIS (MI6) • ‘Ironbark’ reports • Arrested by Soviets in Sept. 1962; later executed

  11. Resolution of the Crisis • October 28, 1962: Khrushchev ordered construction work stopped on installations in Cuba; missiles to be dismantled, packed up and shipped back to USSR • Khrushchev dropped demand that US withdraw missiles from Turkey

  12. Excerpt from a post-crisis report

  13. Soviet Intelligence • Highly skilled at security and surveillance within their totalitarian system • Khrushchev acts as own intelligence analyst; rejects professionalization of intelligence • KGB fails to influence policy-making • Soviet intelligence fails to grasp sophistication of US technology

  14. American Intelligence • Analysis still weak and flawed at times • Far greater ability than Soviet intelligence to influence policy-making • Far more technically sophisticated than Soviets (U-2, etc.)

  15. For further info: • James G. Blight, Intelligence and the Cuban Missile Crisis (Frank Cass, 1998) • David Alvarez, ‘American Signals Intelligence and the Cuban Missile Crisis’ Intelligence and National Security 15:1 (2000) 169-77. • A.V. Fursenko, One Hell of a Gamble: Khrushchev, Castro, and Kennedy, 1958-1964 (W.W. Norton, 1997)

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