MDGs Needs Assessment/Costing : Why MDGs-based Planning?-1

1. MDGs Needs Assessment/Costing : Why MDGs-based Planning?-1 A Presentation by Barth T. Feese, Head, Costing Unit Office of the Senior Special Assistant to the President on MDGs, State House, Abuja. At MDGs Costing Seminar Organised by the African Institute for Applied Economists, Enugu on 17th march, 2010.

2. Agenda • The Millennium Development Goals in Africa and Nigeria • Integrating the MDGs into national and State-level strategies

3. MDGs: 8 Goals,18 targets, 48 Indicators The 8 MDG Goals Eradicating Extreme Poverty and Hunger Achieve Universal Primary Education PromoteGender Equality and Empower Women Reduce Child Mortality Improve Maternal Health Combat HIV, Malaria and Other Diseases Ensure Environmental Sustainability Develop a Global Partnership for Development

4. Selected MDG Targets for 2015 • Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 per day • Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger • Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate • Reduce by three quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality rate • Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation

5. Selected MDG Indicators At A Glance

6. The MDGs are Shared Goals… • International agreements (such as Monterrey) provide the right framework for the MDGs • Low income countries need increased ODA to meet Goals • Countries are responsible for good governance • Private flows important but only partial substitute • Market access critical for long-term economic growth • All countries reaffirmed their commitment to the MDGs at the World Summit 2005 • The MDGs can be met within existing commitments by rich and poor countries

7. … That Remain to be Operationalized • Currently the MDGs are aspirations, not operational targets: • Countries do not plan systematically to achieve the MDGs • Aid is not provided based on countries’ needs • The international development system is not goal oriented

8. Understanding Africa’s Special Needs: Beyond the Standard Diagnosis Africa faces unique structural constraints: • High disease burden • Dependence on low-productivity rain-fed agriculture • Poor transport infrastructure & few navigable rivers • Small internal market size & low population density • Population living far from the coast • Governance alone does not explain poverty • Each of these constraints can be overcome through targeted public investments • Trade plays a complementary role for long-term economic development

9. Epicenters of extreme poverty Using IMR and % underweight

10. Africa’s unique malaria challenges

11. Move 1 ton fertilizer 1000 km USA: $15 India: $30 SS Africa: $100 Double if truck returns empty African transport costs are very high Move 1 ton maize: • Iowa to Mombasa (13,600 km): $50 • Mombasa to Kampala (900 km): $100

12. Railroad networks in Africa & India

13. Poverty Trap Above the Threshold k k k’ k’(capital per person) time time The Economic Consequences of Africa’s Special Needs • Poverty traps result from combination of three factors: • High minimum capital threshold • Low savings rates • High population growth (“capital widening”)

14. The MDGs are Feasible Countries can break out of poverty through combination of: • Broad-based public investments at scale in health, education, agriculture, infrastructure, and environmental management • Sound policies and governance including good economic management • Improved access to international trade • There is no “magic bullet” – all are necessary

15. The MDGs are Affordable • Typical investment needs in a low-income country: $110 per person per year through to 2015 • To meet the MDGs, low income countries will need more aid and debt relief, alongside increased domestic resource mobilization • At the global level MDGs are affordable within existing commitment of 0.7% target • G8 countries promised $50 billion – more than $70 per African – in assistance by 2010 • Macroeconomic stability can be maintained if aid is predictable, grants-based and targeted to investments

16. Agenda • The Millennium Development Goals in Africa • Integrating the MDGs into the national (V20:2020, 7-Point Agenda) and State-level strategies (e.g., Delta State’s 3-Point Agenda, Enugu State Devt. Agenda?)

17. Meeting the MDGs Requires Growth and Investment • Growth is necessary, but not sufficient for MDGs • Some MDGs require direct investments regardless of economic growth (e.g. maternal mortality, environmental sustainability) • Reaching the poor & reducing inequality requires direct investments in people, infrastructure & environment • Public investments in MDGs are critical for growth • Private sector led growth requires minimum standards in health, education, infrastructure, etc. • Direct investments must complement good economic policies

18. Integrated Investment Strategies to Meet the MDGs • All necessary inputs need to be covered • Investment strategies need to be integrated and outcome-focused • The UN Millennium Project proposes 7 investment clusters for the MDGs: • Rural development • Urban development • Health systems, including HIV/AIDS • Education • Gender equality • Environment • Science, technology and innovation • Cross-national infrastructure

19. MDG Investments Can Build Absorptive Capacity • Capacity development comprises long-term investment strategies in • Human resources • Pre-service training • In-service training • Review of salaries and benefits • Infrastructure • Capital costs • Operating expenditures • Public management systems • Civil service reforms • Equipment • IT services

20. Principles of Development Strategies that are Goal-based Common strategy today Goal-based development strategy MDG target Level of MDG progress ? 1990 2005 2008 2015 MDG MDG Base Year Target Deadline 1990 2005 2008 2015 MDG MDGs Base Year Target Deadline YEAR YEAR

21. The Operational Framework for Achieving the MDGs • Countries align national development strategies with the MDGs, including integrated investment strategies across sectors • The international community supports these strategies with adequate development assistance • As requested by governments, UN system provides technical support in strategy design and implementation

22. Aligning National Strategies with a Goals-based Approach • How can the MDGs be translated into operational targets? • How can sector strategies based on the MDGs be integrated into the 10 year national development plan (V2020, 5th NDP, and 7-Point Agenda), or Enugu State’s shared priorities, strategic choices, or Development Plan? • How would the MTEF and annual budgeting processes need to change to reflect the country’s/state’s commitment to the MDGs? • How can the international system align its support to help governments in preparing and implementing MDG strategies? (UNDP/DFID/World Bank)

23. Integrated Investment Strategies to Meet the MDGs & National/States’ Strategic Choices • Conduct a “Needs assessment” to identify the comprehensive package of inputs required • Not about clinics or nurses or medicine! • Ensure investment strategies are: • Practical!! • Integrated • Outcome-focused • Build links between long-term strategy and medium-term strategies and annual budgets

24. Preparing MDG-based PRS - 1 • The question is: “what is required (investments, policies, institutions) to achieve the MDGs?” The UN Millennium Project lists four main stages in preparing an effective MDG-based PRS: 1. Conduct a thorough needs assessment (or costing) that compares the current situation with the MDG targets, identifying the various investments across sectors that will be needed, in terms of financial, human resources and infrastructure requirements. • 2. Develop a long term (10 -12 year) framework for action (Vision 2020) for achieving the MDGs based on the needs assessment.

25. Preparing MDG-based PRS - 2 • 3. Construct a mid-term (3 – 5 year) strategy (MTSS), based on the long term plan, which is attached to a Mid-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) that guides the annual budgeting process. • 4. Institute a Public Expenditure Management (PEM) framework for monitoring and evaluating results in a transparent and accountable manner (e.g., OPEN). • Linking Planning, Costing and Budgeting • Costing and budgeting helps the planning process by ensuring that goals set are affordable, while funding gaps are established for funding sources

26. Five Core Features of a MDG-Based Strategy • Ambition: Targets are at least as ambitious as MDG targets for 2015 • Scope: The range of sectors identified is broad enough to achieve all the MDG targets • Practical Rigor: For each sector, the strategy is based on a detailed, bottom-up assessment of practical needs • Timeline: The medium term strategy is nested in a 10-year framework • Financing: The financing strategy is determined in line with needs