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Temperature anomalies relative to 20 th Century Average

Temperature anomalies relative to 20 th Century Average. Approximate pre-industrial temperature anomaly (~ -0.2°C) Approximate late 20 th century temperature anomaly (~ 0.3°C) Net temperature anomaly – late 19 th century to late 20 th century ~0.5 °C.

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Temperature anomalies relative to 20 th Century Average

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  1. Temperature anomalies relative to 20th Century Average Approximate pre-industrial temperature anomaly (~ -0.2°C) Approximate late 20th century temperature anomaly (~ 0.3°C) Net temperature anomaly – late 19th century to late 20th century ~0.5°C http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.php

  2. Fossil Fuel Burning 8 ATMOSPHERE billion tons go in 4 billion tons added every year 800 billion tons carbon Ocean Land Biosphere (net) 4 2 2 + = billion tons go out Climate Change Mitigation • Read: • NYS Interim Climate Action plan – executive Summary http://www.nyclimatechange.us/ewebeditpro/items/O109F24046.pdf • Stabilization Wedges - Science, Vol 305, Issue 5686, 968-972, 13 Aug. 2004 (on moodle)

  3. Science, Vol 305, Issue 5686, 968-972, 13 Aug. 2004 • Scientific American, Special Issue,pp. 50-57, Sept. 2006 Historical emissions profile Billion of Tonnes of Carbon Emitted per Year Business as usual –continue at current rate of emission growth (>800 ppm, +5°C) 14 Hold current emissions (2007) – (525 ppm, +3°C) Historical emissions 7 Cut 2007 emissions in half over 50 years– (450 ppm, +2°C) 1.9  0 2105 1955 2005 2055

  4. The stabilization triangle Billion of Tonnes of Carbon Emitted per Year 16 Currently projected path Stabilization Triangle Interim Goal 500 - 550ppm in 50 years. Steep decline beyond Flatpath O Historical emissions 8 0 2105 1955 2007 2057

  5. Concept of Mitigation Wedges Assumed 2057 carbon emission sources Billion of Tonnes of Carbon Emitted per Year 16 16 BtC/y Currently projected path Eight “wedges” O 8 BtC/y Historical emissions 8 Flatpath 4 additional wedges needed to cut emissions by 50% by 2057 0 2105 1955 2007 2057

  6. Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC. A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge. What is a wedge? An activity that reduces emissions to the atmosphere that starts at zero in 2007 and increases linearly until it accounts for 1 BtC/yr of reduced carbon emissions in 2057 1 BtC/yr Total = 25B tonnes of carbon 50 years

  7. What are the options? Nuclear Fission CO2 Capture and Storage Fuel Switching 16 BtC/y Energy Efficiency and Conservation Stabilization Forests & Soils Triangle 8 BtC/y 2007 2057 Renewable Electricity and Fuels

  8. Photos courtesy of Ford Motor Co., DOE, EPA Efficiency Example – 1 wedge Produce today’s electric capacity with double today’s efficiency Double the fuel efficiency of the world’s cars or halve miles traveled Average coal plant efficiency is 32% today There are about 600 million cars today, with 2 billion projected for 2055 Use best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings E, T, H / $ Replacing all the world’s incandescent bulbs with CFL’s would provide 1/4 of one wedge Sector s affected: E = Electricity, T =Transport, H = Heat Cost based on scale of $ to $$$

  9. Fuel Switching Substitute 1400 natural gas electric plants for an equal number of coal-fired facilities Photo by J.C. Willett (U.S. Geological Survey). A wedge requires an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all purposes today E, H / $

  10. Carbon Capture & Storage • Implement CCS at • 800 GW coal electric plants or • 1600 GW natural gas electric plants or • 180 coal synfuels plants or • 10 times today’s capacity of hydrogen plants Graphic courtesy of Alberta Geological Survey There are currently three storage projects that each inject 1 million tons of CO2 per year – by 2055 need 3500. E, T, H / $$

  11. Nuclear Electricity Triple the world’s nuclear electricity capacity by 2055 Graphic courtesy of NRC The rate of installation required for a wedge from electricity is equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from 1975-1990. E/ $$

  12. Wind Electricity Install 1 million 2 MW windmills to replace coal-based electricity, OR Use 2 million windmills to produce hydrogen fuel Photo courtesy of DOE A wedge worth of wind electricity will require increasing current capacity by a factor of 30 E, T, H / $-$$

  13. Solar Electricity Install 20,000 square kilometers for dedicated use by 2054 Photos courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program A wedge of solar electricity would mean increasing current capacity 700 times E / $$$

  14. Biofuels Scale up current global ethanol production by 30 times Photo courtesy of NREL Using current practices, one wedge requires planting an area the size of India with biofuels crops T, H / $$

  15. Natural Sinks Eliminate tropical deforestation OR Plant new forests over an area the size of the continental U.S. OR Use conservation tillage on all cropland (1600 Mha) Conservation tillage is currently practiced on less than 10% of global cropland B / $ Photos courtesy of NREL, SUNY Stonybrook, United Nations FAO

  16. Wedges Available

  17. Choosing Appropriate Wedges • Review Strategies available (next two slides) • You may use a strategy more than once • Use only whole numbers of wedges • You may use a maximum of • 6 electricity wedges (E) • 5 transportation wedges(T) • 5 heat or direct fuel use wedges (H) • Cost and impacts must be considered. Each wedge should be viewed in terms of both technical and political viability. • See video - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wcDHZ7Z-hQ

  18. NYS Plans • Gov. Paterson Executive Order 24 (Aug. 2009) (http://www.state.ny.us/governor/executive_orders/exeorders/eo_24.html ) • Reduce emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases by 80 percent from 1990 levels, by the year 2050 ("80 by 50“) • Improve resilience to climate change in all the state's communities http://www.dec.ny.gov/energy/44992.html • Establish NYS Climate Action Council http://www.nyclimatechange.us/index.cfm • Develop NYS Climate Action plan (Jan. 2010) • Renewable Portfolio Standard December 2009, (30 x 15) • proportion of renewable electricity consumed in NYS to 30 percent by 2015 • NYSDEC – Climate Smart Communities (http://www.dec.ny.gov/energy/50845.html ) • Part of RGGI – • a ten-state cooperative - reduce GHG emissions from electric power plants • cap and trade system. • first market-based, mandatory program in the nation. http://www.dec.ny.gov/energy/rggi.html

  19. NYS - Basic strategies for reducing emissions • 80x50 emissions target of 50 MMT CO2e • Constraint: Cutting GHG emissions could have real-world consequences if low-carbon or no-carbon energy sources don’t adequately replace fossil sources. • four key strategies to reduce GHG emissions: • energy conservation through demand reduction and energy efficiency. • Increased reliance on local, point-of-use renewable energy technologies such as solar is the second strategy. • Reducing combustion of fossil fuels ( 87% of current GHG emissions) • fuel switching where combustion must still be used • Three Scenarios

  20. http://www.nyclimatechange.us/ewebeditpro/items/O109F22816.pdfhttp://www.nyclimatechange.us/ewebeditpro/items/O109F22816.pdf http://www.nyclimatechange.us/InterimReport.cfm NYS Vision of 2050 115 MMT CO2 eq/y <50 MMT CO2 eq/y <50 MMT CO2 eq/y

  21. Take Home Messages • In order to avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO2, we need to rapidly deploy low-carbon energy technologies and/or enhance natural sinks • We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to make large cuts in emissions • No one technology can do the whole job – a variety of strategies will need to be used to stay on a path that avoids a CO2 doubling • Every “wedge” has associated impacts and costs

  22. EFFICIENCY AND CONSERVATION • Improve fuel economy of the two billion cars expected on the road by 2057 to 60 mpg from 30 mpg. • Reduce miles traveled annually per car from 10,000 to 5,000. • Increase efficiency in heating, cooling, lighting, and appliances by 25 percent. • Improve coal-fired power plant efficiency to 60 percent from 40percent. http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2007/10/carbon-crisis/img/stabilization_wedges.pdf

  23. CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE • Introduce systems to capture CO2 and store it underground at 800 large coal-fired plants or 1,600 natural-gas-fired plants. • Use capture systems at coal derived hydrogen plants producing fuel for a billion cars. • Use capture systems in coal derived synthetic fuel plants producing 30 million barrels a day.

  24. Use only LOW-CARBON FUELS • Replace 1,400 large coal-fired power plants with natural-gas-fired plants. • Displace coal by increasing production of nuclear power to three times today’s capacity.

  25. RENEWABLES AND BIOSTORAGE • Increase wind-generated power to 25 times current capacity. • Increase solar power to 700 times current capacity. • Increase wind power to 50 times current capacity to make hydrogen for fuel-cell cars. • Increase ethanol biofuel production to 50 times current capacity. About one-sixth of the world’s cropland would be needed. • Stop all deforestation. • Expand conservation tillage to all cropland (normal plowing releases carbon by speeding decomposition of organic matter).

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