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Surface Weather Reports at Chicago, IL and Evansville, IN at 5:00 PM CDT, July 14, 1992

Surface Weather Reports at Chicago, IL and Evansville, IN at 5:00 PM CDT, July 14, 1992 . Chicago: overcast NNW wind 61°F recent rain. Evansville: sunny S wind 91°F no recent rain. Weather stations are 300 miles apart. Why so different?

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Surface Weather Reports at Chicago, IL and Evansville, IN at 5:00 PM CDT, July 14, 1992

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  1. Surface Weather Reportsat Chicago, IL and Evansville, IN at 5:00 PM CDT, July 14, 1992 • Chicago: • overcast • NNW wind • 61°F • recent rain Evansville: sunny S wind 91°F no recent rain • Weather stations are 300 miles apart. Why so different? • How to we go about answering a question like this?

  2. How can we find an answer to any scientific question? • No single method • Lots of tools & strategies can be used; apply one(s) appropriate to the problem • One approach: • Pose a possible explanation (hypothesis) that can be tested • Try to confirm or disconfirm it as strongly as possible • (Can’t really prove it; why?) • Accept best-supported explanations (provisionally)

  3. Where does evidence to confirm (or reject) a hypothesis come from? • Ultimately, from observations of the natural world • Measuring & recording natural phenomena • Sometimes routine observations (like weather); sometimes in an experimental test

  4. What do we do with observations? • Compare observations with hypothesis (test the hypothesis) • If observations don’t fit, hypothesis is not supported (disconfirmed) • If observations fit (hypothesis confirmed), maybe accept it • Common for first hypothesis to be at least partly wrong • Systematically eliminate (disconfirm) hypotheses that don’t fit until think of one that survives repeated tests • Never really done! (Why not?)

  5. Where to start? • No real rules, but: • Be curious about how the world works • Make observations • Look for patterns, connections, anomolies • Ask questions • Pose possible explanations that are testable • Start with something limited, not all-encompassing • Use more observations to test the explanation • Use info available, experience, a little luck • Collaboration can help • For question about Chicago vs. Evansville difference, need to know how weather observations are made & what they mean

  6. Weather Observationsand Instruments • The National Weather Service (NWS) standardizes instruments and procedures for making observations • Need to ask/know: • Where recorded? • When recorded? • What was recorded? • How was it recorded? • Are the observations reasonable?

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