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Mapping the Future

Mapping the Future. Colonel Dr. Thomas Will, GE A Chief, Strategic Forecasting Branch Bundeswehr Transformation Center. For whom do we work?. Ministry of Defence. Chief of Staff Bundeswehr. Vice Chief of Staff Bundeswehr. Vice Chief of Staff & CoS Joint Support. Armed Forces Staff.

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Mapping the Future

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  1. Mapping the Future Colonel Dr. Thomas Will, GE A Chief, Strategic Forecasting Branch Bundeswehr Transformation Center

  2. For whom do we work? Ministry of Defence Chief of Staff Bundeswehr Vice Chief of Staff Bundeswehr Vice Chief of Staff & CoS Joint Support Armed Forces Staff Army Air Force Joint Support Service Navy Medical Service Joint Service Office Bundeswehr Transformation Centre Operational Subordination Administrativ Subordination

  3. Where to find us Commander Deputy Commander & Chief of Staff Department I Transformation Department II CD&E Department III OR, M&S Strategic Forecasting

  4. What we are doing Develop a Permanent Element which identifies Potentials for Improvement relevant for German security policy Methodology for a Systematic Strategic Forecasting  Interdisciplinary Co-Operation

  5. How it started • 1996 Ad hoc Working Group „Armed Forces Development 2020“ • 2002 Armed Forces, Capabilities, and Technologies in the 21st Century – 2030 (Streitkräfte, Fähigkeiten und Technologien im 21. Jahrhundert – 2030 – abbreviated: SFT 21 – 2030) • 2005 SFT 21 – 2035 • Since April 2006: Permanent element within Bundeswehr Transformation Center

  6. The Task • Detect Potentials of the Future • Function as an Early Warning System • Target Capabilities • Present CHODS with Alternative Options

  7. Looking Back from Alternative Futures Direction of thought in the study process Time line 2040 Security Environment 2040 Top down Aim: Armed Forces Able to Fulfil Political Missions 2025 2015 Armed Forces 2015 / 25 Stepwise planning process towards the future based on a hierarchy of documents Bottom up Bundeswehr Planning Process (mid- to long-term) 2005

  8. Main Questions What kind of changes will we be confronted with? What does that mean with regard to security policy? What does that mean for the security community? What are the risk potentials in the 21st century? How will the future face of war look like?

  9. Overall Approach Trend Analysis Capability Analysis Workshops on Specific Issues Scenario Building Interdisciplinary and International Cooperation Security Relevant Environment 2040 Risk Analysis Capabilities Recommendations for Action

  10. Trend Areas Society Economy Demography Science & Technology Politics Environment/Ressources Culture Increased Interdependence Increased Decision Density Increased Network Need to identify changing potential!

  11. Geographical Trend Analysis 1. Global Level 2. Regional Level 3. Local Level

  12. Subject Areas of Trend Analysis • Islamic World • Organized Crime • Change in Climate • Development of Energy • Use of Oceans • Use of Space • Knowledge Society • Nano-Technology • Bio-Technology • Historical Trend Analysis

  13. Scenario Building and Analysis Notion of Direction TRENDS Time Horizon INITIAL SCENARIO TOPOGRAPHY of ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS ANALYSIS of CHANGING POTENTIALS Aim: Changing Potentials Relevant to Security and Armed Forces

  14. Personnel: An Interdisciplinary Approach COL Dr. Civil Engineer LTC Army CPT MA Political Sciences CMDR Navy MA Economics LTC Air Force LTC Army MA Humanities

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