Food Crisis – Opportunity or Tragedy?

1. Food Crisis – Opportunity or Tragedy? Presentation at Heinrich Boll Foundation North Amerca and Carnegie Trade, Equity and Developmoent Program October 9, 2008

2. I. Rapidly Changing Food Markets Create New Opportunities

3. High food prices provide an opportunity for producers

4. Food demand is changing Developing Country Consumption Meat Horticulture Cereals Developing country exports Horticulture Meat Cereals

5. Supply chains are increasingly integrated… • Supermarkets are rapidly dominating food sales worldwide • Supermarket supply chains require high levels of coordination between producers, processors and marketing • Supermarkets are also targeting the poor, selling cheap food and expanding to relatively small cities • Foreign investors are often critical to knowledge transfer

6. …but smallholder sourcing adds retail value

7. Increasing demand for environmental services from agriculture

8. Agriculture is also critical to climate change in developing countries

9. New technology is “democratizing” information access • Mobile technology lowers the hurdle for joining the networks • Many developing countries are closing the technology gap • Smaller businesses are able to gain benefits of scale in information access

10. II. Smallholder Sector and Empowering Value Chains

11. The Smallholder Sector – Why Care? • 3/4 of the world’s poor livein rural areas • Over 450 million farms are less than 2 has • Almost 1/3 of world’s population depend on smallholder farming • Agricultural growth is at least twice as effective in reducing poverty as non-agricultural growth • For the majority of crops, smallholders are more efficient producers • Smallholder agriculture systems, particularly the commercial aspects, are increasinglymanaged by women

12. Empowering Value Chains • Allow smallholders to seize new opportunities in agriculture by: • Increase producer knowledge of market demand and pricing • Increase investments from farmers and the other private sector • Increase access of smallholders to knowledge, finance, inputs and technology • Reduce transactions costs of the producer-processor/marketing interface • Increase the share of value added captured by primary producers

13. Empowering Value Chains: Examples • Ghana “grains partnership” between smallholders and private actors (input suppliers, produce buyers) to boost farm-level productivity and secure transactions (maize) • Sao Tome and Principe organic cocoa schemes contributed to more than doubling the income to smallholder farmers • Yulin watermelons (China): Direct marketing to wholesalers, supermarkets and retailers increased selling price from 1.2 to 3.0 yuan per kilogram and its farmed area from less than a ha to several thousand • NorminVeggies (Philippines): Supplies vegetables to fast food, supermarkets and processors. Monthly sales were 80 tons in 2006. • Konzum Supermarket (Croatia): Helped small farmer- preferred suppliers to use contracts as collateral with local banks to investmentin greenhouses and irrigation

14. III. Why aren’t more empowering value chains emerging?

15. Investment climate limits quantity and quality of agricultural investment • Poor business climate attracts “extractive” investors and limits development of modern marketing systems • Particular problem for countries with small internal markets • Also applies to certification!

16. Marketing Systems are Inefficient • Large number of intermediaries increases costs, risks and losses

17. Property Rights Need to Work for the Poor • smallholder advantages depend, in large part, on tenure security as incentive for farmer to invest

18. Limited Access to finance • Credit constrained use less inputs and earn lower incomes • Credit constraint is often associated with risk rationing as well

19. Under-investment in agriculture and rural infrastructure • Agriculture and rural infrastructure’s share of public expenditures have declined significantly

20. Need to improve efficiency of investment in rural development

21. Concentration in Agribusiness Sector • Concentration widens the spread between world and domestic prices – from 1974 to 1994 this more than doubled for wheat, rice and sugar • Developing countries’ claim on value added declined from around 60% in 1970-72 to 28% in 1998-2000

22. IV. The way forward

23. Actions to Build Empowering Value Chains • Strong facilitation & strengthened legal framework to secure, build trust & reduce costs of transactions • General business climate – business licensing, trade facilitation • Strengthen land access and tenure security • Develop rural financial and risk services • Efficient input markets • Rural infrastructure • Quality, andSanitary and Phytosanitary Standards • Market information • Producer organizations in order to help farmers engage on less skewed terms

24. Bridging the Gap: New Role of the State Drivers Dynamic Roles From financing investments to… Global flow of capital, technology and market access Transparent, predictable investment climate From supplying inputs and buying outputs to… Private sector dominates Input and output markets Regulate input and output quality Including SPS From centralized investment planning and service delivery to… Empower rural communities so investments and services respond to needs and farmers can engage private sector Political and fiscal decentralization and supportive engagement with farmer organizations and other CSOs From agencies working in silos to… Improve coordination for service delivery and avoid duplicating regulations and red tape Mechanisms for inter-institutional coordination

25. Bridging the Gap: New Role of the Private Sector Drivers Dynamic Roles From vertical integration to… Global sourcing brings political risks Diversified sources of product From focus on cutting supply costs to… Demand for socially responsible production Marketing smallholders From uniform product characteristics to… Increasing importance of “new cultural markets” Encouraging traditional varieties and product diversity From dependence on intermediaries to… Phytosanitary and quality are the new trade barriers Providing farmers with quality inputs and production technology

26. Farmer associations are critical • Morogoro is Tanzania’s main sugar-producing region where the mills owned some large farms but could not adequately supply all their needs. • The mills provided farmers with seed cane on credit and the services of tractors for land preparation. Workers from the mill would harvest the cane and take it for processing. These services were deducted from the amount paid to the farmers. • The Millers Association, as a monopsony, had considerable power. Not surprisingly, for many years, the relationship between the growers and the sugar millers had been characterized by mistrust. The millers frequently violated their contracts and often delayed payment to the farmers for as long as six months. • The Tanzanian Sugar Cane Growers Association (TASGA) emerged to represent smallholders averaging 1.4 ha each - initially had public sector help to organize farmers • The ability of TASGA to negotiate effectively eliminated strikes and social unrest. However its importance was not just its role representing farmers. It also conducts various functions: (1) sourcing funds to provide loans to farmers; (2) offering training on improved cropping practices; and (3) promoting better environmental practices. • TASGA has grown to include many thousands of farmers and now accounts for about 17,000 ha. of cropland. • When the government discussed providing the sugar millers some 30,000 ha of land to grow sugarcane, it was recognized instead that it ought to go to the Association

27. Important Caveat: Many smallholders will not be able to integrate or will do so slowly • Areas constrained agronomically (low rainfall) • Areas constrained by market access (time to market) • Need investments in rural roads, irrigation and other food security measures • Need investments in education and health and active labor market policies • Safety net programs such as public works

28. Common interests and challenges • Poverty Reduction – helping all of the poor to escape poverty • Food quality – how to ensure that appropriate incentives exist for higher quality and more sustainable production? • Environmental sustainability – how to ensure that environmental costs of unsustainable production are “internalized” in incentives? • Public support – how to do it “right” in terms of reaching right people and being responsible in terms of government expenditures? • Trading system which supports sustainable and equitable opportunity in agriculture as well as ensuring a safe, reliable and affordable food supply?

29. Parting Message… How we respond to this crisis in terms of fixing what is broken in agriculture and social protection will determine whether future generations will record this as the triumph of an opportunity grabbed or the tragedy of an opportunity squandered

30. Some publications of interest: • Rising Food and Fuel Prices – Addressing the Risks to Future Generations • The Impact of Food Inflation on Urban Poverty and its Monetary Cost • Double Jeopardy: Responding to High Food and Fuel Prices • World Development Report ’08: Agriculture • Implications of Higher Global Food Prices for Poverty in Low Income Countries www. Worldbank.org (food crisis)

31. On behalf of the World Bank Thank you • www.worldbank.org