Inventories, Focal Species, & Crayons: Evaluating Conservation Planning Tools

1. Inventories, Focal Species, & Crayons: Evaluating Conservation Planning Tools George R. Hess Matthew J. Rubino Frank H. Koch Katherine A. Eschelbach C. Ashton Drew Jorie M. Favreau North Carolina State University Raleigh, North Carolina 27695-8002 USA

2. The Challenge People transform landscapes faster than research data can be collected Planners need to act with incomplete data Can we create shortcuts that correctly identify land for protection?

3. Some Possible Approaches

4. Some Possible Approaches

5. Some Possible Approaches

6. Some Possible Approaches

7. Our Research Question Can simple approaches identify land for protection as effectively as complex approaches?

8. Our Research Question Can simple approaches identify land for protection as effectively as complex approaches? Compared plans in the Triangle Region of North Carolina, USA

9. Study Area Triangle Region — North Carolina — USA

11. Approach Conservation Principles Inventory Data Habitat Mapping Random Selection Null Model Inventory- Based Plan Focal Species Plan Simple Plans

12. Approach Conservation Principles Inventory Data Habitat Mapping Random Selection Null Model Inventory- Based Plan Focal Species Plan Simple Plans Test Against Inventory Data Effectiveness of each Plan

13. Effectiveness Proportion of known species & communities of conservation concern protected by plan

14. Effectiveness

15. Natural Heritage Inventory Point location of species & communities of conservation concern Cataloged through the years from a variety of sources Data used for effectiveness test AND creating inventory-based plan

16.  $$$$$$ Inventory-based Plan Based on Natural Heritage Inventory Considered species habitat needs and community extent Created a map of core conservation lands

17.  $$$$$$ Inventory-based Plan

18.  $$$$ Focal Species Plan Created by me & graduate students Focal species selected to represent landscapes & conservation threats Habitat modeled & mapped for each species Combined maps to create plan

19.  $$$$ wildwnc.org animaldiversity.ummz.umich.edu www.birdperch.com www.owlpages.com Focal Species Plan Extensive undisturbed lands • Bobcat • Eastern box turtle Riparian & bottomland • Barred owl Upland • Ovenbird • Broad-winged hawk Mature • Pileated woodpecker

20.  $$$$ Focal Species Plan

21.  $$ Simple Plans Used simple conservation principles to identify forest land for protection

22.  $$ Simple Plans • Used simple conservation principles to identify forest land for protection • Created two of each • Same area as inventory plan • Same area as focal species plan

23.  $$ Simple Plans • Used simple conservation principles to identify forest land for protection • Created two of each • Same area as inventory plan • Same area as focal species plan • Avoids direct comparison of plans with grossly unequal areas

24.  $$ Simple Plans • Used simple conservation principles to identify forest land for protection • Largest patches in region

25.  $$ Simple Plans

26.  $$ Simple Plans • Used simple conservation principles to identify forest land for protection • Largest patches in region • Largest patches in each county, then nearest

27.  $$ Simple Plans

28.  $$ Simple Plans • Used simple conservation principles to identify forest land for protection • Largest patches in region • Largest patches in each county, then nearest • Diverse forest types • Close to already protected areas • Close to wetlands & riparian areas

29.  $ Random Selection • All forest patches patches had same selection probability • Repeated 50 times • Average • 95% confidence interval

30. Recap – Approach Conservation Principles Inventory Data Habitat Mapping Random Selection

31. Recap – Approach Conservation Principles Inventory Data Habitat Mapping Random Selection Null Model Inventory- Based Plan Focal Species Plan Simple Plans

32. Recap – Approach Conservation Principles Inventory Data Habitat Mapping Random Selection Null Model Inventory- Based Plan Focal Species Plan Simple Plans Test Against Inventory Data

33. Recap – Effectiveness

34. Inventory Beats Focal Species Inventory plan more effective & used less land … but more costly

35. Inventory Beats Simple

36. Focal Species Ties Simple

38. Our Research Question Can simple approaches identify land for protection as effectively as complex approaches?

39. It Depends … Inventory data needed, if only small amounts of land (≈5%) protected

40. It Depends … Inventory data needed, if only small amounts of land (≈5%) protected Simple or random might work, if large amounts of land (≈35%) protected

41. It Depends … Inventory data needed, if only small amounts of land (≈5%) protected Simple or random might work, if large amounts of land (≈35%) protected Generalization awaits further testing in other systems, BUT …

42. There Seems to be a Pattern Most “effective” surrogate plans protected more than 35% of land Looked at surrogate approach “success stories” in literature Only considered cases in which plan tested against inventory data

43. Interesting New Question Is there a threshold of land available for protection above which simple approaches are as effective as complex ones?

44. Tempting Conclusions Inventory-based plans are best Simple plans are the way to go, if you’re protecting lots of land Focal species (and other surrogate) approaches have little value

45. Tempting, but … We cannot support these conclusions

46. Tempting, but … We cannot support these conclusions Limited measure of effectiveness

47. Tempting, but … We cannot support these conclusions Limited measure of effectiveness Population viability not considered

48. Tempting, but … We cannot support these conclusions Limited measure of effectiveness Population viability not considered Focal species plan considered reproduction

49. Tempting, but … We cannot support these conclusions Limited measure of effectiveness Population viability not considered Focal species plan considered reproduction Reason to doubt random selection as effective as simple plans

50. Conclusions (the real ones) • Inventory data appear necessary when little land can be protected • Unclear what to do if large amounts of land can be protected • Simple plans look good, but … … what about population viability? • Might be a protection area-threshold above which simple plans work well