Woodrow Wilson Center 15 January 2009 Urban socio-ecological systems and environmental transitions in the Asia Pacific

1. Woodrow Wilson Center 15 January 2009 Urban socio-ecological systems and environmental transitions in the Asia Pacific Region Peter J. Marcotullio Distinguished Lecturer, CUNY, NY Adjunct Senior Fellow, UNU-IAS

2. Outline of seminar Concepts Urban environmental transitions Adding differences in historical experiences Adding a socio-ecological system perspective Comparative urban socio-ecological transitions Conclusion Implications for local and global sustainability Implications for policies

3. Concepts

4. The Urban Environmental Transition

5. What is the relationship between increasing wealth and environmental conditions in cities? • Environmental transition theory suggests that as cities increase in wealth they undergo a series of environmental burdens that shift in type (from health threatening to ecosystem threatening), temporal scale (from immediate to delayed impacts) and geographic scale (from local to global); Source: McGranahan et al, 2001

6. Examples of environmental trends with increasing wealth Source: World Bank, 1992

7. Summary and limitations of the urban environmental transition theory • Urban environmental transition theory is a powerful tool for understanding the changes in environmental burdens associated with different levels of development. It is a major advance over the notion of the environmental Kuznet’s curve (EKC), as it addresses issues of scale of impact and accommodates different relationships between economic development and environmental conditions

8. Summary and limitations of the urban environmental transition theory • Two limitations of the concept are: 1) it does not distinguish changes in the transition experience over time; and 2) it shifts attention from one type of burden to another over time, space and wealth, assuming that all different types of burdens follow similar trends of specific types at similar scales.

9. Differentiating historical experiences

10. How have transitions been altered: Time- and space-related effects • The contemporary development context, including “globalization,” has facilitated the impacts of time-space effects. These effects are the result of changing speed, timing and efficiency of human activities and the increasingly uneven location/concentration of social phenomena in space • Generally, development conditions are forcing a spatial convergence and temporal divergence

11. Differences between developed and rapidly developing urban environmental experiences • Environmental conditions in developing economies are occurring sooner (at lower levels of income) changing faster (over time) and emerging in a more simultaneous fashion (as sets of challenges) than had previously been experienced by the now developed world; • Environmental transitions therefore, have been significantly altered;

12. Three curves Developed world experience Environmental harm Environmental harm GDP/capita GDP/capita Environmental harm Rapidly-developing world experience GDP/capita Environmental harm Environmental harm GDP/capita Source: Marcotullio and Lee, 2003 after McGranahan et al, 2001; Smith, 1990; Smith and Lee, 1993 GDP/capita

13. Adding socio-ecological conditions

14. Socio-ecological systems “Human” and “environmental” or “ecological” spheres of interaction can been thought of as coupled systems or socio-ecological systems (SES), sometimes also called “coupled human and natural systems (CHANS)”; Activities and changes in one sphere are dependent upon and interact with elements and processes in the other (concept of ecological service);

15. Selected studies based upon SES fundamentals Source: Liu et al, 2007

16. Local socio-ecological urban trends • Some local issues, such as soil conditions, continue to deteriorate with advanced urban activities. For example, soil contamination is cumulative and changes in the local hydrological system continue to need management and intervention • Other local ecological trends differentiate. For example, biodiversity largely, but not always, responds negatively to urban land use change and activities. Moreover, changes in flora and fauna continue even in large dense wealthy urban settlements

17. Adding both changes in development context and socio-ecological system approach to urban environmental transition theory: Comparisons between the experiences of the North and Asia Pacific region

18. Comparative impacts: Asia Pacific and the “North” • Urban SESs in the Asia Pacific are unique (compared to the experiences of the now developed world) in the following ways: • The speed of SES change is more rapid than previously experienced; • Socio-ecological changes are being experienced sooner in the development process than in the past • Previously experienced sequential socio-ecological relationships associated with impact-responses are now experienced simultaneously • Local ecological impacts are greater than previously experienced • Global ecological impacts are less intensive per capita, but potentially larger in absolute size

19. Comparative speed of change • Changes are more rapid than previously experienced; • National economic growth rates in wealth are unprecedented • Speed of urbanization is faster in many Asia Pacific nations when compared to the developed world • Urban growth rates are more rapid • Growth in energy supply is faster

20. Comparison in speed of increases in energy supply: USA and selected Asian economies Source: Marcotullio and Schulz 2007

21. Sooner comparative impacts • Changes are being experienced sooner in the development process than in the past • Technologies are diffusing at lower levels of income • Major development patterns, such as urbanization, are occurring at lower levels of income • Ecological degradation, such as transportation CO2 emissions, is occurring at lower levels of income • Diets are changing at lower levels of income

22. Comparative emergence of transportation CO2 emissions Source: Marcotullio, Williams and Marshall, 2005

23. Average daily consumption per Capita by GDP

24. More simultaneous comparative impacts • Previously experienced sequential development patterns are now experienced simultaneously • Sets of multi-scale environmental conditions within urban populations of different income in the region • Multi-scale urban water related conditions in Southeast Asia appear is cities at all levels of income

25. Sets of urban water related issues by scale within urban regions of ASEAN Source: Marcotullio 2007

26. Local ecological comparative impacts • Changes in local impacts are more ecologically damaging than previously experienced: • Soil are seemingly more contaminated at lower levels of income • Greater consumption levels within cities in terms of building materials

29. Global comparative impacts • Some changes are less intensive per capita, but potentially larger in absolute value • For some nations in the region transportation-related CO2 emissions are lower then previously experienced • Total CO2 emissions per capita are lower than some developed countries at all levels of GDP

30. Comparative changes in CO2 emissions per capita by GDP Source: Marcotullio and Schulz 2007

31. Cumulative impact may be larger According to the World Bank, by 2030, there will be approximately 1.2 billion middle class consumers in developing countries, up from around 400 million in 2000 The Goldman Saks, BRICS report suggests that by 2040 in China and India alone, another 800 million cars will be in use, which will double the 2000 number of automobiles in the world In rapidly growing economies, such as China, India and Brazil (~2.6 billion people), consumption of red meat has risen 33 percent in the last decade

32. Conclusions

33. ConclusionsImplications for UET theory • While urban environmental transition theory is powerful it needs to be modified to include socio-ecological linkages and difference in development experiences • It describes historical experiences in the now developed world better than what is happening in the rapidly developing and poor economies

34. ConclusionsImplications for UET theory • Local ecological conditions do not follow the patterns associated with changes in local environmental health issues. Moreover, they may be becoming more intense • Activities that impact global ecosystems, however, seem to be responding to technological, social and political changes and are becoming less intense (per capita)

35. ConclusionsImplications for Asia Pacific local and global sustainability • Within rapidly developing Asia Pacific cities local environmental health and ecological changes need more attention • The cumulative impacts of the local ecosystem changes may be as important if not more than the global impacts. Particularly important are local consumption decisions, which include everything from food choices to building styles

36. ConclusionsImplications for policies The changing dynamics within SESs require different responses from those implemented previously. For example, policies advocating compact cities and concentrated decentralization need re-thinking when applied to rapidly developing Asian economies

37. ConclusionsImplications for policies • Shifts may increase threats of “unresolved” challenges • Integrated policy solutions for environmental issues are increasingly emerging from developing nations and cities. Consider, for example: • BRT systems • Congestion pricing • Micro-financing • Tetra-pak recycling • Urban agriculture

38. Conclusions • Whether developing world urban SESs will become more resilient in the face of further ecological degradation, increased potential for surprises and abrupt changes will depend upon a number of complex interactions that are not yet the focus of much needed research

39. The End Urban socio-ecological systems and urban environmental transitions in the Asia Pacific Region