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St. Louis Homicide Analysis

St. Louis Homicide Analysis. Nikolay , Melis , Divya , Ankit. Overview. The Problem Objective Methodology 1 Making sense of Raw data Methodology 2 Statistical analysis of significant variables Conclusion Questions?.

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St. Louis Homicide Analysis

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  1. St. Louis Homicide Analysis Nikolay, Melis, Divya, Ankit

  2. Overview • The Problem • Objective • Methodology 1 • Making sense of Raw data • Methodology 2 • Statistical analysis of significant variables • Conclusion • Questions?

  3. St. Louis consistently ranks TOP 5 in the most dangerous cities in America every year • Lack of accurate predictions where crime, specifically homicide is likely to occur The Problem • Deliverable: Approach of problem, data considered, and predication for 2013

  4. Use Quantitative and Qualitative Data • Create a model that can predict homicides for the current year and location • Increase the rate of prevention, by giving St. Louis police accurate data to strategically deploy their limited resources Objective

  5. Qualitative approach • Using statistical data from government agencies • Logical data analysis • Findings of patterns, correlations and trends Methodology Part 1

  6. Data by St. Louis City Police Districts

  7. 5, 6, 7 1, 3, 4, 8 St. Louis City Police Districts 2, 9

  8. Number of Churches • Number of Hospitals and Universities • Number of Bars and Restaurants • Number of High Schools • Number of Community Centers Elements Considered

  9. 5, 6, 7 1, 3, 4, 8 Community Centers 2, 9

  10. STL Crimes Graph 1985-2010

  11. STL Crimes Correlation 1985-2008

  12. Neighbor States

  13. Yearly Data St. Louis City Police Districts

  14. 28 Years Back

  15. 50 Years Back

  16. 50 Years Back

  17. Over time crime rate become stable and does not fluctuate a lot • Pattern valid for consideration of local data • Prediction for the number of crimes will be in the 100 – 120 range Conclusion Part 1

  18. Quantitative approach – Regression Analysis • Multiple regression model: • Dependent Variable • Total number of homicides in each district • Indipendent Variables • Number of unemployed people • Number of gun sales • Total number of violent crimes in St. Louis City • Total number of forcible rapes in St. Louis City • Total number of robery in St. Louis City • Total number of aggravated assault in St. Louis City Methodology Part 2

  19. Regression Analysis in Excel Multiple regression equation E(y)=ß₀+ß₁X₁+ ß₂X₂+........+ ßpXp

  20. Regression Analysis in Excel cont. Data used in regression analysis for District 1

  21. Regression Analysis in Excel cont. Summary output of regression analysis for District 1

  22. Regression Analysis in Excel cont.

  23. Regression Analysis in Excel cont. The numbers of homicides by districts and years

  24. Regression Analysis in Excel cont. • How we predicted 2013 values of independent variables! • Number of unemployed people • Population of 2012 and unemployment rate of December 2012 • Number of gun sales • Same as 2012 • Total number of violent crimes in St. Louis City • Total number of forcible rapes in St. Louis City • Total number of robery in St. Louis City • Total number of aggravated assault in St. Louis City • All four by using exponential smoothing analysis tool in Excel

  25. Regression Analysis in Excel cont. Predicted numbers of homicides by districts and years

  26. Regression Analysis in Excel cont. Differences between the numbers of real homicides and predicted homicides by districts and years

  27. Regression Analysis in Excel cont.

  28. Predicted murders : 123 • Regression Analysis • Sample Size, Accuracy • Different methods Conclusion Part 2

  29. The problem • Using past data • Developed a method • Determined factors • Used Regression analysis • Output Summary

  30. Uniform Crime Reporting Statistics- UCR Data Online http://www.ucrdatatool.gov/ • The Metropolitan Police Department, City of St. Louis http://www.slmpd.org/crime_stats.html • Data collected from census http://www.stlcin.missouri.org/citydata/newdesign/index.cfm • Census.gov • Google Resources

  31. Questions?

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