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Predicting 2013 Trend of Homicide Rate in St. Louis City

Predicting 2013 Trend of Homicide Rate in St. Louis City. By Shih- Hua Chen Yao Zhang Teng ma Group E URL: www.umsl.edu/~yz3pd/is6833.html. Objectives. Predicting the neighborhood(s) with the highest homicide rate in 2013. St. Louis City Overview. The 52 nd largest city in the nation

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Predicting 2013 Trend of Homicide Rate in St. Louis City

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  1. Predicting 2013 Trend of Homicide Rate in St. Louis City By Shih-Hua Chen Yao Zhang Teng ma Group E URL: www.umsl.edu/~yz3pd/is6833.html

  2. Objectives • Predicting the neighborhood(s) with the highest homicide rate in 2013.

  3. St. Louis City Overview • The 52nd largest city in the nation • Population: 318,069 (based on 2011 Census) • Percent high school graduate or higher 81.90% • Median household income $34,402 • Individual below poverty level 26.0% • 10% rely on public transit • The most dangerous city in the US in 2007and 2010, & the 2nd most dangerous in 2011 (CNN Money). • St. Louis City consists of 79 neighborhoods.

  4. St. Louis City Overview • 7 year homicide rate trend

  5. Overview

  6. Methodology • Quantitative • Trend analysis/linear regression • Based on 8-year murder rate historical data and population per neighborhood • Multiple regression • Based on 8-year murder rate historical data, limited income and education statistics

  7. Trend Analysis Sampling • There are about 70 neighborhoods in City of St Louis (http://www.slmpd.org/crime_stats.html) • Murder Rate=murder index/population*1,000 • Choose neighborhood with population>5,000 • 4 neighborhoods with high rate-Jeff Venderlou, O'Fallon, The Great Ville, Well/GoodFellow • 2 representative neighborhoods from Central & south St. Louis-Central West End & Tower Grove

  8. Trend Analysis Method • Linear Regrssion using EXCEL TREND function • The TREND(known_y's, known_x's, new_x's, constant) function is used to perform Linear Regression. • A least squares criterion is used and TREND tries to find the best fit under that criterion. • Known_y's represent data on the "dependent variable" and known_x's represent data on one or more "independent variables".  • Difference between TREND & FORECAST(Microsoft excel) -TREND is more suited to data points in a series such as a time series -Forecast: not necessary to be time series (http://support.microsoft.com/kb/828801) (http://en.allexperts.com/q/Excel-1059/Excel-Functions-FORECAST-vs.htm) Known_x’s-murder Rate Known_y’s-year (define as 1-8) Coefficient-slope

  9. Jeff Venderlou

  10. O’Fallon

  11. The Greater Ville

  12. Wells-Good Fellow

  13. Central St. Louis Central West End

  14. South City Tower Grove East

  15. Result North City-Highest Murder Rate in 2013 (per 1,000 people) • Jeffvanderlou 1.587 • Wells-Goodfellow 0.658 • O’Fallon 0.518 • The Greater Ville 0.196 The results show a downward trend in North city—good!

  16. Multiple Regression • To find relationship of murder rate with other factors. • Hypothesis: income, population, and high school graduation rate have some relationship with murder rate. • We selected Jeff Vanderlou, The Greater Ville, and Wells-Goodfellow. • Limitation: we couldn’t find complete income, population and graduation rate data of the past 8 years. • The analysis is useful because it provides more accurate prediction with 3 variables. • Tools • Excel – failed • SAS – succeeded

  17. Multiple Regression -- Excel The Greater Ville

  18. Multiple Regression Method -- SAS Multiple regression formula: y=30.2913x1-0.00279x2-0.0894x3+179.22

  19. Multiple Regression Method -- SAS

  20. Conclusion • North city is relatively more dangerous. • Jeff Vanderlou tops the homicide rate ranking. • Other tools – interactive crime mapping.

  21. Highest murder rate Low murder rate Moderate murder rate

  22. References • FBI Crime in the United States 2005-2011 http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/tables/table-6 • CNN Money Most Dangerous US Cities http://money.cnn.com/gallery/real_estate/2013/01/23/dangerous-cities/2.html • NextSTLUnderstanding St. Louis City Crime Index and Crime http://nextstl.com/urban-living/understanding-st-louis-total-crime-index-and-crime-ridden-neighborhoods • SLMPD Crime Statistics http://www.slmpd.org/crime_stats.shtml • AreaVibe Neighborhoods demographic data http://www.areavibes.com/ • US Census http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t • Interactive mapping tool https://www.crimereports.com/map/index/?search=1200+Clark%20Avenue+St.%20Louis+MO&agencyzoomlevel= • All maps are created on ArcGIS.com

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