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Jaime Malaga, Ph.D. Center for North American Studies

Jaime Malaga, Ph.D. Center for North American Studies Texas Tech University - Department of Agricultural & Applied Economics. Recent Trends in U.S. Cotton and Sorghum Exports and their Impact on the South. Outline. Cotton Price and Exports Cotton in the South Cotton Trends and Expectations

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Jaime Malaga, Ph.D. Center for North American Studies

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  1. Jaime Malaga, Ph.D. • Center for North American Studies • Texas Tech University - Department of Agricultural & Applied Economics Recent Trends in U.S. Cotton and Sorghum Exports and their Impact on the South

  2. Outline • Cotton Price and Exports • Cotton in the South • Cotton Trends and Expectations • Sorghum Price and Exports • Sorghum in the South • Sorghum Trends and Expectations • General Remarks

  3. Cotton Price A Index (Monthly)

  4. World Cotton Production and Mill Use Source: CERI

  5. World Cotton Imports 2010-11 2000-01

  6. World Cotton Exports 2010-11 2000-01

  7. Cotton China Source: CERI

  8. Cotton Mexico Source: CERI

  9. Factors Affecting Cotton Markets Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses • - Changes in US cotton production • - India cotton export restrictions • - Pakistan flooding • - China Textile Industry Quick recovery • - Exchange rates • - Depletion of cotton stocks • - Inflation in China

  10. US Cotton Production by Region Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses Other Southwest (TX) Mid-South (MS, AR, LA, TN) Southeast (GA, NC, AL)

  11. US Cotton Forecast? Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses

  12. US Sorghum (Prices) 2006-2010 Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses Sorghum Price Gulf Port LA

  13. US Sorghum Production and Exports

  14. World Sorghum Exports 2006-2010 Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses 75% US 65% Argentina

  15. World Sorghum Imports 2006-2010 Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses E.U. Mexico 41% Japan

  16. US Sorghum by Region Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses Total US Southern States

  17. Southern Sorghum Production by States (200-2010)

  18. US Sorghum Production by State (South) Table 1 Description of the Variables Used in the Analyses

  19. Factors Affecting Sorghum Export Markets • US total production and exports declining (long term) Ethanol use increasing • Most of US exports going to Mexico (Chicken industry) • Some unexpected demand (EU) may affect flows and prices • Growing competition from Argentina and Australia • Potential new markets in Sub Saharan Africa and LA (Colombia, Chile, Ecuador)

  20. Final Remarks Cotton -Record high prices will go down and stabilize next year -US exports 75% of its cotton and exports will continue to grow -Southern States account for 90% of US exports -Relative prices of other commodities will be key variables. -Factors to watch: China mill use, Exchange rates, Energy prices, Indian, Australian and Brazilian exports, WTO Doha round? Sorghum -Erratic prices will tend to stabilize and decline -US exports 40% of its sorghum but exports may decrease -Southern States (mainly TX) account for 40-45% of US production -Factors to watch: Mexican chicken industry, competition from Argentina and Australia, New emerging markets, ethanol industry demand.

  21. THANK YOU

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