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Space Weather and Associated Impacts

Space Weather and Associated Impacts. Bob Rutledge NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado February 15 th , 2012. 15th Annual FAA Commercial Space Transportation Conference Washington, DC. Outline. Solar Cycle Overview Sequence of Events

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Space Weather and Associated Impacts

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  1. Space Weather and Associated Impacts Bob Rutledge NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado February 15th, 2012 15th Annual FAA Commercial Space Transportation Conference Washington, DC

  2. Outline • Solar Cycle Overview • Sequence of Events • Space Weather Phenomena/Scales • Solar Flares (R Scale) • Radiation Storms (S Scale) • Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale) • Geomagnetic Field • Trapped Radiation • Galactic Cosmic Rays

  3. What is space weather? Space weather refers to the variable conditions on the Sun and in the space environment that can influence the performance and reliability of space and ground­based technological systems, as well as endanger human health. Ionosphere Electromagnetic Radiation Energetic Charged Particles Magnetosphere

  4. Solar Cycle Predictions • Cycle 23 began in May 1996 • Peak in April 2000 with SSN = 120 • Solar Minimum in December 2008 • Solar Cycle 24 Underway

  5. Sequence of Events Credit ESA/NASA SOHO Credit ESA/NASA SOHO Conditions are Favorable for Activity (Probabilistic Forecasts) Event Occurs Coronal Observations

  6. Sequence of Events Event Onset/ Ground-Based Observation Analysis and Prediction ACE Observation

  7. NOAA Space Weather Scales Radiation Storms Geomagnetic Storms http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ Radio Blackouts

  8. Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts – R Scale) • Arrival: 8 minutes, photons • Duration: Minutes to 3 hours • Daylight-side impacts • Probabilistic 1, 2, 3-day forecasts • Alerts for exceeding R2 (only) • Summary messages post-event

  9. Solar Flare (Radio Burst) Impact on GPS – 6 Dec 2006 ~10 mins

  10. Aircraft Operations Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale) Satellite Operations Space Operations • Arrival: 10’s of minutes to several hours • Duration: hours to days • Short-term warnings pre-onset • Alert for threshold crossing • Summary post-event

  11. Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale) • Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic storms • Arrival: ~18 – 96 hours • Duration: Hours to a day or two • Creates increased satellite drag, ionospheric storms, geomagnetically induced currents, radiation belt dynamics, aurora • 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling • Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

  12. GPS IMPACT – U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) • Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct, 2003 • Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods METERS Image credit FAA WAAS Program

  13. Geomagnetic Field/Trapped Radiation Image credit NASA SAMPEX Team

  14. NASA-MIR, Quiet Day Image credit NASA/JSC Space Radiation Analysis Group

  15. NASA-MIR, Additional from Radiation Storm Image credit NASA/JSC Space Radiation Analysis Group

  16. Thank You

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