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Space Weather – Geomagnetic Storm Impacts

Space Weather – Geomagnetic Storm Impacts. Bob Rutledge NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado November 7 th , 2012. 70th NPCC System Operator Seminar . Outline. The Sun/Solar Cycle Sequence of Events Geomagnetic Storm Products Potential NERC Changes

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Space Weather – Geomagnetic Storm Impacts

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  1. Space Weather – Geomagnetic Storm Impacts Bob Rutledge NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado November 7th, 2012 70th NPCC System Operator Seminar

  2. Outline • The Sun/Solar Cycle • Sequence of Events • Geomagnetic Storm Products • Potential NERC Changes • Product Improvements • Measurements/Observations Update

  3. What is space weather? Space weather refers to the variable conditions on the Sun and in the space environment that can influence the performance and reliability of space and ground­based technological systems, as well as endanger human health. Ionosphere Electromagnetic Radiation Energetic Charged Particles Magnetosphere

  4. Sunspots and the Solar Cycle The Sun at Solar Maximum The Sun Today ~27 day full rotation

  5. Solar Cycle Predictions • Cycle 23 began in May 1996 • Peak in April 2000 with SSN = 120 • Solar Minimum in December 2008 • Solar Cycle 24 Underway

  6. Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles • The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred • during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied) 1859 Storm 1921 Storm

  7. July 2012 CME

  8. Sequence of Events Conditions are Favorable for Activity (Probabilistic Forecasts) Event Occurs Coronal Observations

  9. Sequence of Events Event Onset/ Ground-Based Observation Analysis and Prediction ACE Observation

  10. NOAA Space Weather Scales Radiation Storms Geomagnetic Storms http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ Radio Blackouts

  11. Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

  12. Event-Driven Product Definitions • Watches; The conditions are favorable for occurrence • Warnings; disturbances that are imminent, expected in the near future with high probability • Alerts; observed conditions meeting or exceeding thresholds

  13. Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale) • Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic storms • Arrival: ~18 – 96 hours • Duration: Hours to a day or two • Creates ionospheric storms, geomagnetically induced currents, aurora • 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K) • Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

  14. High Impact/Low Frequency Threat… Media Release: Loss of Reactive Power, Voltage Instability Most Likely Outcome from GMD, NERC Report Finds February 29, 2012 ATLANTA – Loss of reactive power is the most likely outcome from a severe solar storm centered over North America, a report released by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) finds. Significant losses of reactive power could lead to voltage instability and, if not identified and managed appropriately, power system voltage collapse could occur….. …but is it a 100 year storm…200 year…?

  15. North American Electric Reliability Corp. Meeting in Boulder, Oct 2012 • Revise alert/warning procedures in support of national grid • Initiate telecon with RCs through NERC Bulk Power System Awareness group for • K8-9 storms • Potential Changes: • Warnings issued directly to 16 Reliability Coordinators (RC)? • NERC Hotline at SWPC?

  16. USGS Conductivity NOAA working with partners to improve services • New products: • Regional geomag specification and prediction (geospace) • Site/location specific Induced Electric Field (statistics initially, nowcast in the near future) • Partnering with USGS • Access to key measurements at grid locations (EPRI and Sunburst)

  17. Product Developments • Website overhaul underway • New look and feel, modern content management system • More user-friendly, updated content • Updated forecast products • Two forecasts per day with option for out-of-cycle, activity-driven updates • Forecast discussion with plain-language synopsis and explanation of rationale • Auroral model transition to operations (Ovation Prime) • Continued improvement of geomagnetic storm products showing better nowcasts of regional disturbance information

  18. Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) • NASA/GSFC refurbishes with NOAA funding • NOAA ($30.1M funded FY12) • NESDIS operations, data processing, archive, calibration/validation • NWS/SWPC forecasts & warnings • Air Force launch ($134.5M funded FY12) • Launch in 2014 DSCOVR

  19. Visions of the Future… • Sailing on sunlight! • SunjammerSolar Sail Technology • Demonstration Mission (TDM) • NASA mission to prove the viability and value of the solar sail technology (launch ~2015) • NOAA working with NASA and other partners exploring options for solar wind measurements • Roughly doubling lead time from ACE for • Sunjammer, but you can go beyond that…

  20. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado www.spaceweather.gov

  21. Thank You robert.rutledge@noaa.gov

  22. SWPC Product Distribution WECC Reliability Coordinator, Vancouver Midwest ISO, St. Paul NYISO WECC Loveland, CO SWPC G2 Alerts and Warning dissemination

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