Soccer, Economics, & Expert Testimony: McCoy College Research Grants

1. Jeff Todd, Finance & Economics Soccer, Economics, & Expert Testimony:McCoy College Research Grants

2. International Soccer: Key Terms • FIFA • National Associations (U.S. Soccer; Qatar Football Association) • Regional Confederations (CONCACAF, CONMEBOL, UEFA) • International Tournaments • World Cup • Copa America, Euro Cup • Tier-One Leagues (MLS, Ligue 1)

3. Facts Leading to Research Interest • Alleged corruption in 2022 World Cup bidding • QFA • ExCo Member Mohamed bin Hammam • Indictments & continuing investigations by U.S. DOJ and Swiss AG • World Cup Bump (Drut & Szymanski working paper) • Collaborative research with Todd Jewell

4. Question 1: 2022 World Cup USA? • Assuming corruption by QFA • National Associations subject to FIFA rules and dispute resolution • But: FIFA rules cross-reference Swiss law and CAS • Swiss Unfair Competition Act and injunctive relief for economic harm • FIFA force majeur clause • Article in Capital University Law Review

5. Question 2: Money Damages for MLS? • Assuming no 2022 World Cup USA • Mohamed bin Hammam is a billionaire • Jurisdiction in New York court • Tortious Interference with Prospective Economic Advantage • Enforcing a judgment in Qatar • Article in Vermont Law Review

6. A Problem of Assumptions • Admissibility of economics expert testimony • FRE 702 • Daubert Trilogy (reliability standard) • Cases with model-based expert testimony • Article in Delaware Journal of Corporate Law • (In)Apt comparisons of MLS to Drut & Szymanski • Market • Product

7. McCoy Grant 1: A Data Opportunity • Drut & Szymanski: World Cup and Euro Cup bumps • June 2016: U.S. hosted Copa America Centenario • Paid research assistant to gather MLS attendance data • With factors like day of week, time of season, home / away teams • Focus: Copa announcement (5/1/14) through end of 2016 MLS season • Findings: modest attendance bump (4.8%) correlated with Copa America • Article in Wm & Mary Business Law Review

8. McCoy Grant 2: A Data Coincidence • Nice preliminary findings, but • Duration of Copa bump? • Quality of variables? • Comparison of U.S. and European markets? • Euro Cup 2016 France and Ligue 1 • Paid student assistant to update MLS attendance data and gather Ligue 1 attendance data

9. McCoy Grant 2: Approach • Sample: All MLS & Ligue 1 regular-season matches from 2007 through 2018 / 2019 • MLS data finished • Ligue 1 still in season • Measure effect on attendance from tournament announcement to two-three seasons following • Other variables: day of week, time of season, home / away teams, odds • Ordinary least squares regression analysis

10. McCoy Grant 2: MLS Preliminary Results

11. McCoy Grant 2: Results • Pre- & Post-Copa Bump: • 1,346 fans per game (17,373 x 0.0775) • Total of 966,428 additional fans (718 × 1,346) • Copa Bump by Year: • Total of 1,767,219 additional fans • Revenue bump (assuming $50/game): • $48,321,400 • $88,360,950

12. McCoy Grant 2: Conclusion • Ligue 1 data so far show similar results • Conclusions • Int’l tournaments boost tier-one soccer attendance temporarily but significantly (attract casual fans) • Fans in both the U.S. and France show similar attendance patterns for tier-one soccer in response to int’l tournaments • Plan: submit to economics journal

13. Looking Ahead and Final Thoughts • Third McCoy Grant Proposal • Continue MLS and Ligue 1 • Add German Bundesliga • Article: meaning for MLS antitrust exemption and collective bargaining • Value of Research • Contribution to sports economics • Contribution to economics expert evidence law • Involving finance and economics students

14. Conclusion