Climate Change & Disasters

1. Climate Change & Disasters

2. Climate Change and Disasters “The report [Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability, IPCC 2007] confirms our worst fears – vulnerable people; the elderly, the sick and the poorest people, in the poorest countries, are at greatest risk when it comes to climate change” Madeleen Helmer, Head of the Red Cross Climate Change Centre “The report illustrates that the international community's responsibilities should go beyond reducing carbon dioxide emissions. They must extend to the protection of the most vulnerable against the disasters that a changing climate will bring. This requires a massive and global commitment to disaster preparedness and risk reduction” Markku Niskala, International Federation Secretary General

3. World Disaster Report 2008 Oceania 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total Disasters 17 15 13 18 18 20 22 16 18 10 167 Killed 2245 116 205 9 91 64 35 46 24 253 3088 Affected*824 151 7 31 41 38 119 28 38 152 1413 Damage** 584 2547 645 673 2514 668 606 233 1322 1738 11,530 Source: Red Cross Red Crescent World Disaster Report 2008 • Affected * = Thousands • Damage ** = US$ Millions

4. How do we know what to expect in Asia Pacific?

5. How do we know what to expect in Asia Pacific?

6. How do we know what to expect in Asia Pacific?

7. How do we know what to expect in Asia Pacific? Pacific Islands are some of the most vulnerable

8. Sea level rises in the Pacific Location Installed Trend mm/yr Fiji Oct 92 +2.7 Kiribati Dec 92 +6.0 Vanuatu Jan 93 +3.0 Tonga Feb 93 +8.1 Cook Is Feb 93 +3.1 Samoa Feb 93 +6.7 Tuvalu Mar 93 +5.8 Marshall Is May 93 +4.6 Nauru Jul 93 +7.5 Solomon Jul 94 +6.3 PNG Manus Sep 94 +7.7 FSM Dec 01 +16.6 Based on SEAFRAME Data at 27 stations monitored hourly

9. How do we know what to expect in Asia Pacific? • Since 1950 natural disasters affected more than 3.4M people • Outside PNG led to more than 1700 reported deaths • 1990s reported natural disasters cost the region US$2.8B in 2004 value • 10 of 15 most extreme events over the past 50 years occurred in the last 15 years

10. How do we know what to expect in Asia Pacific? Solomon Islands is already experiencing: • Rising sea levels, with salt water intrusion • Flooding • Greater intensity and frequency of cyclones • Coral reef pressure

11. How do we know what to expect in Asia Pacific? Results in: • Fresh water contamination • Greater coastal erosion • Reduction in island size • Food and water security issues • Health impacts

12. How do we know what to expect in Asia Pacific? • Impacts compounded by: • Poverty • Population increases • Urbanisation • Deforestation • Subsistence dependence • Other Pacific nations impacted: • PNG • Kiribati • Samoa • Tuvalu • Not ‘if’ but ‘when’

13. How do we know what to expect in Asia Pacific? • Tuvalu • Home to 4000 of the 11,000 population • 379 people per sq km - 70% reliant on subsistence • Highest point 4.5m above sea level • Isolated outer islands • Issues • Rising temperatures / sea levels • Rainfall decrease • No land to flee to • Logistical communication challenges

14. Wars…conflicts…natural disasters…climate change Red Cross response: • Set up Climate Centre in the Hague in 2002 • Disaster and Climate change delegates meet regularly • Linking with Government and other NGOs • Sharing Australian knowledge with our Pacific neighbours • Conducting detailed community planning in Pacific Nations

15. What’s happening in the Pacific? Action: • 2005 pilot project to combat climate change • Assessed preparedness and response to adaptation • Raised awareness and set up a Climate Action Network • International training provided • Satellite phones and communication packs distributed

16. The Red Cross approach in the Pacific? • ‘Preparedness for Climate Change Program’ • Workshop Climate Change Risk with stakeholders • Identify/assess Climate Change risks against the priorities/programmes • Address gaps via capacity building • Develop Climate Change resilient programmes • Implement community level adaptation projects: • Rainwater harvesting • Reforestation projects • Coastal zone protection • Win-win adaptation strategies e.g. Vietnam mangrove replanting to protect coastline from typhoon impacts and promote fish nurseries

17. What lessons have been learnt? Adaptation Strategies: • Pay off in the long run • Costs less than disaster recovery • Must be introduced early, when planning key investments • Win-win strategies required • Reduce vulnerability

18. But there are still major challenges to overcome? • Prevention vs. generous response to disasters irrespective • Benefits not immediately visible • Compete with short term priorities • Prevention funding constrained vs. significant emergency funding • Management of natural hazards not mainstreamed into economic planning • Efforts undermined as not managed by key ministries • Inadequate emphasis on raising awareness

19. What is needed to help the Pacific? Link bodies that deal with adaptation and disasters Funding model that supports adaptation, separate from disaster response Country dialogue, plans and projects to include adaptation and disaster risk reduction More funds dedicated to adaptation in poorer nations Developing win-win projects for community and government buy-in Foster international mentoring opportunities

20. Their future is linked to our future?