NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS, TRENDS & CHALLENGES OF SRI LANKA

2. NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS, TRENDS&CHALLENGESOFSRI LANKA By Major General UdayaPerera RWPRSP USP USAWC pscM.Sc(IND) M.Sc(USA) NDU-CT(USA)

3. INTRODUCTION

4. MONGOLIA CHINA AFGHANISTAN IRAQ IRAN NEPAL BHUTAN PAKISTAN INDIA Pacific Ocean BANGLADESH Sri Lanka Maldives Island Indian Ocean

5. JAFFNA MULLAITTIVU MULAITHIVU KILINOCHCHI MANNAR VAVUNIYA TRINCOMALEE ANURADHAPURA BATTICALOA KANDY COLOMBO HAMBANTHOTA GALLE

6. His Excellency MahindaRajapaksa The President of  the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka

7. THEN NOW THEN NOW THEN NOW JAFFNA TRINCOMALEE BATTICALOA KANDY COLOMBO HAMBANTOTA KILINOCHCHI Water Supply System Destroyed by the LTTE KILINOCHCHI

8. STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT • TGTE • GTF ( Global Tamil Forum) • HQ GP • ICET (Intl. Council of Eelam Tamils) • BTF (British Tamil Forum) • TCF (Tamil Centre France) UN / INGO TAMIL DIASPORA UNHRC Media EU CYBER Global Tamil Population 74 Million GLOBAL Enablers Nations Supporting Pro LTTE Org Slackers • Neutral Nations • Friendly Nations Aggressors Arab Spring • Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO) • Pro LTTE Political Gps Sri Lankan Refugees REGIONAL Tamil Population 65 Millions Tamilnadu Factor Media • SAARC • Unemployed • NEETs • Under Employed • Trade Unions • Cooperates • Indian Tamils • National Political Parties SOUTH • Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies Media Tamil pop 3 Million South – 46% North – 54% • Defence • Intelligence • Para Military • Police GoSL Economy • Business NGO / INGO Media NATIONAL • NGO / INGO • Political Parties with Separatist Ideology • Media Promoting Separatist Ideology • Extremist Religious Elements • Other Minority • Communities • War Widows • Unemployed • Beneficiaries • Disables • Displaced • Indian Tamil NORTH & EAST • Pro Govt Political Elements • Bureaucracy Tamil Pop North & East 1,611,036 Internationalization of Local Political Issues • Anti LTTE Media VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM

9. “Nations have No Permanent Friends or Foes, they only have Permanent Interests” - Lord Palmerston

11. (VUCA) Volatile, Uncertain, Complex & Ambiguous

14. Common Global Threatsand Challenges New Trends, Challenges and Concerns on National Security of Sri Lanka in Post Conflict Context

15. COMMON GLOBAL THREATS AND CHALLENGES • Nuclear • Biological • Cyber • Transnational Crimes • Terrorism • Environment/Climatic Changes and Natural Disasters

16. Nuclear • Biological • Cyber • Transnational Crimes • Terrorism • Environment/Climatic Changes and Natural Disasters

17. Tsunami 2011

18. Nuclear • Biological • Cyber • Transnational Crimes • Terrorism • Environment/Climatic Changes and Natural Disasters

19. Nuclear • Biological • Cyber • Transnational Crimes • Terrorism • Environment/Climatic Changes and Natural Disasters

20. CYBER

22. (NEET) Not in Education, Employment or Training

23. NEETs Sleep During the Day Active During the Night Net Intrusions Anti Social Activities Drug Trafficking Robberies V`` Arms Smuggling Child Abuse V`` Man in theMiddle Attacks V`` v Premeditated Crimes Unethical Hacking Counterfeiting

24. Nuclear • Biological • Cyber • Transnational Organized Crimes • Terrorism • Environment/Climatic Changes and Natural Disasters

25. Drug Trade Arms Smuggling Human Traffckling Marijuana Illegal Gambling Cocaine Prescription Drugs Heroin Software Piracy Oil Theft Cigarette Smuggling Counterfeit Foods Counterfeit Auto Parts Counterfeit Toys Counterfeit Electronics Illegal Logging Methamphetamine Illegal Fishing Human Smuggling Wildlife Trafficking Ecstasy Music Piracy Counterfeit Shoes Counterfeit Clothing Waste Dumping Art Theft Cable Piracy Video Game Piracy Counterfeit Sporting Goods Counterfeit Pesticides Alcohol Smuggling Mobile Entertainment Piracy Counterfeit Cosmetics Movie Piracy Metals and Minerals Smuggling Counterfeit Aircraft Parts Counterfeit Weapons Kidnap and Ransom International Adoptions Fake Diplomas and Degrees Prostitution Counterfeit Watches Book Piracy Counterfeit Money Nuclear Smuggling Counterfeit IDs and Passports Organ Trafficking Counterfeit Purses Counterfeit Lighters Counterfeit Batteries

26. Nuclear • Biological • Cyber • Transnational Crimes • Terrorism • Environment/Climatic Changes and Natural Disasters

27. “All terrorists share one common denominator; they “live” in the future, and are convinced that they will defeat their enemies and achieve their political goals” - Bruce Hoffman

28. STRATEGY REDUCE SCOPE BY INSTRUMENTS OF NATIONAL POWER REDUCE CAPABILITY THROUGH DIPLOMACY & INFORMATION REDUCE CAPABILITY THROUGH DIPLOMACY & INFORMATION REDUCE CAPABILITY BY INSTRUMENTS OF NATIONAL POWER AL QAIDA & OTHER TERR GP? LTTE GLOBAL PROCUREMENT– KP WORLD TAMIL MOV DIASPORA GTF FINANCE KADALPURA - SHIPPING BTA TCC TCF TGTE TAMIL NET BTF ICET TRADES/VENTURES DRUG TRAFFICKING INT SEA PIRACY-SEA TIGERS PROPAGANDA TRO ARMS SMUGGLING LTTE NETWORK REGIONAL HUMAN SMUGGLING LOCAL ASSASSINATIONS DE-STAB ADMIN TERRORISM SABOTAGE STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT PSY OPS DE-STAB ECONOMY SOUTH TERRORISM VIOLATING HR DE-STAB ECONOMY CHILD REC EAST EXTORTIONS • STRENGTHENING OF ETHNIC ENCLAVES ETHNIC CLEANSING COUNTER STATE MECHANISM FORCED RECRUITMENTS EXTORTIONS FORCED LABOUR NORTH LTTE TERR ATTACKS VIOLATING HR LOW HIGH THREAT SEVERITY

29. David C. Rapoport FOUR WAVES OF MODERN TERRORISM 1ST - Anarchist Wave (1881 – 1901) 2ND - Anti – Colonial Wave (1920 – 1960) 3RD - New Left Wave (1960 – 2000) 4TH - Religious / Ethnic Wave (1979 – 2025) FOUR WAVES OF MODERN TERRORISM 1ST - Anarchist Wave (1881 – 1901) 2ND - Anti – Colonial Wave (1920 – 1960) 3RD - New Left Wave (1960 – 2000) 4TH - Religious / Ethnic Wave (1979 – 2025) FOUR WAVES OF MODERN TERRORISM 1ST - Anarchist Wave (1881 – 1901) 2ND - Anti – Colonial Wave (1920 – 1960) 3RD - New Left Wave (1960 – 2000) 4TH - Religious / Ethnic Wave (1979 – 2025)

30. Dr. Tom Marks In “INSURGENCY” - Terrorism is a Method In “TERRORISM” - Terrorism is a Logic

31. COUNTER STATE MECHANISM JAFFNA MUHAMALAI • VIRTUAL COUNTER STATE 13,000 Km2 MULAITHIVU KILINOCHCHI • ETHNIC CLEANSING KILINOCHCHI MANNAR WELIOYA • STRENGTHENING ETHNIC ENCLAVES OMANTHAI ARIPPU PULMODDAI SILAWATTURAI VAVUNIYA • FORMING OF LAND, NAVAL & AIR WINGS TRINCOMALEE TRINCOMALEE HOROWPOTHANA SAMPOOR • BUILT NUMBER OF AIR STRIPS – LINKING THE WORLD ANURADHAPURA MAVILARU VAKARAI MINNERIYA HABARANA • ILLEGAL TAXATION AND BANKING DAMBULLA BATTICALOA BATTICALOA • SMUGGLING ARMS/AMMO KARADIYANARU MAHAOYA • CONVENTIONAL FORM OF DEFENCES KANDY AMPARA NEGAMBO • CONSCRIPTION NUWARAELIYA COLOMBO • ILLEGAL COURTS • ILLEGAL POLICE KUMANA • ILLEGAL STAMPS & POSTAL HAMBANTHOTA • COMMUNICATION NETWORK GALLE

32. STRATEGY REDUCE SCOPE BY INSTRUMENTS OF NATIONAL POWER • STRENGTHENING OF ETHNIC ENCLAVES ETHNIC CLEANSING REDUCE CAPABILITY THROUGH DIPLOMACY & INFORMATION REDUCE CAPABILITY THROUGH DIPLOMACY & INFORMATION • FALSE PROPAGANDA • FALSE ALLEGATIONS ON HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS REDUCE CAPABILITY BY INSTRUMENTS OF NATIONAL POWER • CREATE ETHNIC DISHARMONY MILITARY AL QAIDA & OTHER TERR GP? LTTE GLOBAL PROCUREMENT– KP DIASPORA WORLD TAMIL MOV GTF KADALPURA - SHIPPING FINANCE TCC BTA TGTE TCF BTF TAMIL NET ICET TRADES/VENTURES DRUG TRAFFICKING INT SEA PIRACY-SEA TIGERS PROPAGANDA TRO ARMS SMUGGLING LTTE NETWORK REGIONAL HUMAN SMUGGLING LOCAL ASSASSINATIONS DE-STAB ADMIN TERRORISM SABOTAGE STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT PSY OPS DE-STAB ECONOMY SOUTH TERRORISM VIOLATING HR • DEFEAT • OF • THE LTTE DE-STAB ECONOMY • Unorganized • Localized • Non-sponsored • ISOLATED CHILD REC EAST EXTORTIONS COUNTER STATE MECHANISM FORCED RECRUITMENTS EXTORTIONS FORCED LABOUR NORTH LTTE TERR ATTACKS VIOLATING HR LOW HIGH THREAT SEVERITY

33. 1ST - Anarchist Wave (1881 – 1901) 2ND - Anti – Colonial Wave (1920 – 1960) 3RD - New Left Wave (1960 – 2000) 4TH - Religious / Ethnic Wave (1979 – 2025) 5TH - ?

34. Nuclear • Biological • Cyber • Transnational Crimes • Terrorism • Challenges and Security Threats due to Environment/Climatic Changes and Natural Disasters

37. NEW TRENDS, CHALLENGES AND CONCERNS ON NATIONAL SECURITY OF SRI LANKA IN POST CONFLICT CONTEXT

38. Ideological • Constituting Ethnic Enclaves • Non State Actors • Perception

39. Ideological Threat and International Network • Destabilization Through Constituting Ethnic and Religious Enclaves • Non State Actors • Perception

40. STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT • TGTE • GTF • HQ GP • ICET • BTF • TCF UN / INGO TAMIL DIASPORA UNHRC Media EU CYBER Global Tamil Population 74 Million GLOBAL Enablers Nations Supporting Pro LTTE Org Slackers • Neutral Nations • Friendly Nations Aggressors Arab Spring • SAARC • Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO) • Pro LTTE Political Gps Sri Lankan Refugees REGIONAL Tamil Population 65 Millions Media Tamilnadu Factor • Unemployed • NEETs • Under Employed • Trade Unions • Cooperates • Indian Tamils • National Political Parties Media SOUTH • Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies Tamil pop 3 Million South – 46% North – 54% • Defence • Intelligence • Para Military • Police GoSL Economy NGO / INGO Media NATIONAL • Business • NGO / INGO • Political Parties with Separatist Ideology • Media Promoting Separatist Ideology • Extremist Religious Elements • Other Minority • Communities • War Widows • Unemployed • Beneficiaries • Disables • Displaced • Indian Tamil NORTH & EAST • Pro Govt Political Elements • Bureaucracy • Anti LTTE Media Tamil Pop North & East 1,611,036 Internationalization of Local Political Issues VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM

41. TGTE - Transactional Government of Tamil Eelam BTF- British Tamil Forum MTF - Malaysian Tamil Forum HQ GP - Headquarter Group TCC - Tamil Coordinating Committee GTF - Global Tamil Forum

42. PRESENT LTTE INTERNATIONAL NETWORK TGTE GTF HQ GROUP TCC V RUDRAKUMARANPRIME MINISTER DR. S. J. EMMANUEL PRESIDENT PERINBANAYAGAMSIVAPARAN @ NEDIYAWAN LEADER SEKARAPILLAIVINAGAMOORTHI @ VINAYAGAM @ ARIVALAGAN SENIOR INTELLIGENCE LEADER BTF TCF MTF

43. STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT • TGTE • GTF • HQ GP • ICET • BTF • TCF ` UN / INGO TAMIL DIASPORA UNHRC Media EU CYBER Global Tamil Population 74 Million GLOBAL Economic Refugees Enablers ` Nations Supporting Pro LTTE Org Slackers Aggressors • Friendly Nations • Neutral Nations Arab Spring • SAARC • Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO) • Pro LTTE Political Gps Sri Lankan Refugees REGIONAL Tamil Population 65 Millions Media Tamilnadu Factor • Unemployed • NEETs • Under Employed • Trade Unions • Cooperates • Indian Tamils • National Political Parties SOUTH • Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies Media Tamil pop 3 Million South – 46% North – 54% • Defence • Intelligence • Para Military • Police Economy GoSL Media NGO / INGO NATIONAL • Business • NGO / INGO • Political Parties with Separatist Ideology • Media Promoting Separatist Ideology • Extremist Religious Elements • Other Minority • Communities • War Widows • Unemployed • Beneficiaries • Disables • Displaced • Indian Tamil NORTH & EAST • Pro Govt Political Elements • Bureaucracy • Anti LTTE Media Tamil Pop North & East 1,611,036 Internationalization of Local Political Issues VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM

44. Ideological Threat and International Network • Destabilization Through Constituting Ethnic and Religious Enclaves • Non State Actors • Perception

45. STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT • TGTE • GTF • HQ GP • ICET • BTF • TCF UN / INGO TAMIL DIASPORA UNHRC Media EU CYBER Global Tamil Population 74 Million GLOBAL Enablers Nations Supporting Pro LTTE Org Slackers • Neutral Nations • Friendly Nations Aggressors Arab Spring • SAARC • Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO) • Pro LTTE Political Gps Sri Lankan Refugees REGIONAL Tamil Population 65 Millions Media Tamilnadu Factor • Unemployed • NEETs • Under Employed • Trade Unions • Cooperates • Indian Tamils • National Political Parties SOUTH • Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies Media Tamil pop 3 Million South – 46% North – 54% • Defence • Intelligence • Para Military • Police GoSL Economy NGO / INGO Media NATIONAL • Business • NGO / INGO • Political Parties with Separatist Ideology • Media Promoting Separatist Ideology • Extremist Religious Elements • Other Minority • Communities • War Widows • Unemployed • Beneficiaries • Disables • Displaced • Indian Tamil NORTH & EAST • Pro Govt Political Elements • Bureaucracy • Anti LTTE Media Tamil Pop North & East 1,611,036 Internationalization of Local Political Issues Ethnic Enclave VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM

46. Ideological Threat and International Network • Destabilization Through Constituting Ethnic and Religious Enclaves • Non State Actors • Perception

47. Violent Non State Actors Non Violent

48. STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT • TGTE • GTF • HQ GP • ICET • BTF • TCF UN / INGO TAMIL DIASPORA UNHRC Media EU CYBER Global Tamil Population 74 Million GLOBAL Enablers Nations Supporting Pro LTTE Org Slackers • Neutral Nations • Friendly Nations Aggressors Arab Spring • SAARC • Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO) • Pro LTTE Political Gps Sri Lankan Refugees REGIONAL Tamil Population 65 Millions Media Tamilnadu Factor • Unemployed • NEETs • Under Employed • Trade Unions • Cooperates • Indian Tamils • National Political Parties SOUTH • Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies Media Economy Tamil pop 3 Million South – 46% North – 54% • Defence • Intelligence • Para Military • Police GoSL NGO / INGO Media NATIONAL • Business • NGO / INGO • Political Parties with Separatist Ideology • Media Promoting Separatist Ideology • Extremist Religious Elements • Other Minority • Communities • War Widows • Unemployed • Beneficiaries • Disables • Displaced • Indian Tamil NORTH & EAST • Pro Govt Political Elements • Bureaucracy • Anti LTTE Media Tamil Pop North & East 1,611,036 Internationalization of Local Political Issues Ethnic Enclave VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM

49. TREATY OF WESTPHALIA 1648

50. PRINCIPLE OF TREATY OF WESTPHALIA Sovereignty Equality Internationally Binding Treaties Non Intervention of Internal Affairs