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KBC Group. “Is Benelux boring?” UBS Benelux Financials Conference, September 2006. This presentation is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security issued by the KBC Group.
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KBC Group “Is Benelux boring?”UBS Benelux Financials Conference, September 2006
This presentation is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy any security issued by the KBC Group. KBC believes that this presentation is reliable, although the information is condensed and therefore incomplete. This presentation contains forward-looking statements, involving numerous assumptions and uncertainties. The risk exists that these statements may not be fulfilled and that future developments differ materially. Moreover, KBC does not undertake any obligation to update the presentation in line with new developments. By reading this presentation, each investor is deemed to represent that it possesses sufficient expertise to understand the risks involved. Important information for investors
The Benelux demystified What makes KBC different Conclusions Contents
There are many common misunderstandings about the Benelux market. I would like to invite you to identify the valid and false statements: The Benelux is a small market The Benelux is a “consolidated” market The Benelux is a “low growth” market The Benelux ia a “low efficiency / high cost” market The Benelux is a low risk market The Benelux is a “low margin / low profitability” market The Benelux “demystified”
Is the Be(ne)lux a small market ? • Banking assets per capita in the Benelux are at the high end of the European spectrum, higher than e.g. France and Germany • As a consequence, unlike the limited number of inhabitants, total banking assets in the Benelux are approx. 1.5 times higher than in countries like Spain and Italy • However, “the Benelux market does not exist”. It comprises3 sovereign states, 3 languages, 3 markets with different players and different characteristics and dynamics • KBC is a Belux player, operating on the Belgian market with a significant (off-shore) wealth-management presence in Luxembourg Banking assets per capita(in ‘000 euros) Mutual funds, AUM per capita(in ‘000 euros) – May 2006 1 600 1 500 Avg EU12 Source: Feri FMI Source: ECB
Concentration is high, with top-5 institutions holding appx. 85% of the market In Belgium, the bancassurance model prevails (all important players are bancassurers) and cross selling rates typically are very high: Is Belgium a consolidated market ? Share of the 5 largest banks in total assets Market share of 4 largest Belgian banks Avg EU12 Source: ECB Source: Annual reports banking products X mortgages X asset management X insurance
Belgium has experienced “high” growth in many fields Core growth drivers are: House price inflation (from low average house price levels) driving mortgage book growth and, consequently, building the basis for further cross selling High savings rate, historic low private pension building and muted popularity of offshore investments driving wealth management growth Shift from traditional customer deposits to off-balance sheet products (incl. unit-linked Life) driven by “overliquid” bank balance sheets (sector average loans to deposits at 75%) Is Belgium a low growth market ? Mutual funds, AUM, est. net sales(in m euros)June 2005 - May 2006 Source: Feri FMI
Is Belgium a high cost market ? Branches/’ 000 population KBC, Cost/income ratio, Belgium • Average staff cost tends to be high with high fiscal/social securities charges and high proportion of higher-educated (better paid) staff • Nevertheless, productivity gains have brought C/I levels to decent averages (however, best-in-class C/I levels, such as e.g. in the UK and Spain seem to be out of reach) Source: ECB
Is Belgium a low risk area ? KBC, loan loss ratio, Belgium Private loans to GDP • The (private) economy is moderately leveraged: • Household and corporate loans to GDP: 70% (vs. 95% average in Europe) • Savings rate is high – has been for decades amongst the highest in Europe • Credit exposure is well-diversified: • Mostly retail / SME business • The number of corporates with a market cap > 1 bn is only 30 Avg EU12 Source: ECB * restated
NIM in Belgium is at the low side (1.94% at KBC in 6M06) due to: The high government bond portfolios (reinvestment of excess of deposits) Competitive presssure in the mortgage field However, NI spreads are not a good denominator for profitability: Risk is low -> please look at risk-adjusted margins Cross selling (F&C income) is high: Explains why competition in ‘customer binding products’ such as mortgages is high Far less price competition in Fee & Commission generating products Gross margin (incl. F&C) to RWA was at ca. 9% ! Is Belgium a low profit market ? KBC, Belgium, NIM andgross revenue margin vs RWA* * The increase in gross margin as of 2005 is due to new accounting treatment (IFRS)
We believe KBC has the following “competitive” advantages: Geographical presence Structuring capabilities in the Asset Management field Distribution business model What makes KBC different to its peers ?
KBC’s geographical presence Belgium Number of branches in 2005 Brussels • For historicial reasons, KBC is mainly present in the Northern part of the country: • 90% of branches in the North, 10% in the South • 35% market share in the North, 5% in the South • This is highly important since the Northern region is much wealthier that the Southern Source: Annual reports 2004 figures
KBC’s structuring capabilities in AM Breakdown of KBC’s retail funds, Belgium KBC, retail funds, market share, Belgium 30 June 2006 • Since >10 consecutive years, KBC has been able to increase its market share in mutual funds • The market has a predominantly risk-adverse investment culture and is highly receptive for “structured retail funds”, (e.g. capital guaranteed products) for which KBC has strong product design capabilities: • Broad product range: 200 new “products” launched in 2006 • Short term to market: 20 days on average from idea to launch • Highly cost effective AM product factory : C/I ratio 15% (excl. distribution cost)
KBC’s distribution business model • Integrated business model: • One single “governance” from top to bottom (no seperate management, no seperate budgets, no seperate marketing, …) • Integrated distribution channels: • Single branding, product offering and pricing • Shared customer database • Streamlined product profitability (shadow accounting) • High level of “customer ownership” via branches and tied agents (limited share of broker channel) KBC, insurance, sales volume and market share KBC, insurance distribution channels
KBC has an attractive proposition for you: Interesting growth potential : in Belgium (and, moreover, in CEE) Winning business model : bancassurance – asset management Modest risk profile Strict capital discipline and conservative acquisition policy at Group level Conclusions
COMPANY PROFILE Top-20 financial player in Europe with a 32 bn euros market cap Active in banking, wealth management and insurance with a strongly integrated business model Focus on retail and SME Key geographical markets: Top-3 position in Belgium (3m customers) Top-3 position in CEE(9m customers) KBC at a glance SHAREHOLDER PROPOSITION • Attractive franchises: • Interesting growth potential: CEE and (surprise?) Belgium • Winning bancassurance model • Modest risk profile • Capital discipline: • Dividend policy oriented towards yearly increasing dividend • Conservative acquisition policy • 2006 share buy-back (1 bn) • Increased share visibility, liquidity, transparancy
Financial track record Return on equity Net profit In m EUR • Over the last years, the financial performance improved significantly. • FY06 profit is expected to outgrow 3.2 bn euros • KBC will update its mid-term financial objectives before the end of the year. *Pro forma for the “new” KBC group
Key figures: Share price: 84.4 euros Book value: 42.9 euros Daily traded volume 8M06 : 54m euro Analyst estimates:1 2006 EPS consensus: 9.11 euros (+46%)² 2007 EPS consensus: 7.87euros 2007 P/E: 10.7 Recommendations: Positive: 67% Neutral: 33% Negative: 0% Current valuation Valuation relative to peer group Weighted and unweighted averages of IBES data : 3 OTP, Komercni, Pekao, BPH PBK, BRE 4 Erste, Unicredit, Soc. Gen., Intesa BCI, BA-CA, RZB Int. 5 Top-20 DJ Euro Stoxx Banks 6 Fortis, Dexia Situation as at 4 September 2006 1 Smart consenus collected by KBC (21 estimates)2 2006 estimates contain one-off items
Analysts’ opinions Situation on 4 September 2006
Investor Relations OfficeLuc Cool, Director of IRE-mail: investor.relations@kbc.com Surf to www.kbc.com for the latest update Contact information