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Global Market Overview/ Tactical Asset Allocation Basics Denver, CO September 29, 2010

Global Market Overview/ Tactical Asset Allocation Basics Denver, CO September 29, 2010. INTRINSIC VALUE - 21 Indicators.....current net reading of +89 Global Markets Considered To Be Undervalued. ECONOMIC-INTEREST RATES- INFLATION - 15 Indicators, net reading of -12

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Global Market Overview/ Tactical Asset Allocation Basics Denver, CO September 29, 2010

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  1. Global Market Overview/Tactical Asset Allocation BasicsDenver, CO September 29, 2010

  2. INTRINSIC VALUE - 21 Indicators.....current net reading of +89 Global Markets Considered To Be Undervalued. ECONOMIC-INTEREST RATES- INFLATION - 15 Indicators, net reading of -12 Deflation, Slower Growth, Rising Government Deficits. ATTITUDINAL - 22 Indicators, net reading of -64 Mixed Signals Of Optimism/Pessimism MOMENTUM-BREADTH-DIVERGENCE - 41 Indicators, net reading of +186 Technical work is decisively positive. TOTAL= 99 indicators, calculated weekly.....current net reading of +199. Ratio of positive to negative points = 1.30 (0.95 to 1.05 is Neutral) Global Major Trend Index: Currently Positive…Suggests Global Markets Can Move Higher

  3. Global Equity Valuations (Ex-US): Room For Multiple Expansion

  4. Emerging Market Equity Valuations: Room For Multiple Expansion

  5. Global Equity Valuations: Comparatively Cheap To U.S.

  6. U.S. Equity Valuations: Not As Much Room For Multiple Expansion

  7. Global Equity Valuations

  8. The Long Term Performance Impact Of Valuations:

  9. Money Flows: Contrarian Indicator

  10. A Lead On The Global Economy

  11. Global Stock Bond Performance

  12. Global Stock Bond Performance

  13. Dividend Payers Outperform After CLI Peaks

  14. Global Asset Allocation Structure Global MTI Went Positive Mid-September • 68% GLOBAL EQUITIES: Increased (Net Exposure 60%) • 8% EQUITY HEDGE: No Planned Change • 15% INCOME: No Planned Change (Net Exposure 13%) • 4% Global Government Bonds: Now made up of Brazilian and Australian government bonds, as well as Emerging Country Fixed Income ETFs. • 4% Corporate Bond Funds: The two funds are now up 5.8% YTD. • 4% High Yield Bonds: Yield spread is now considered neutral. • 2% Treasury Inflation Protection Bonds (TIPS): Inflation is expected to pick up, and this holding should help in that environment. • 1% Convertible Bonds: Focus is only on Foreign Convertible securities. • 2% FIXED INCOME HEDGE: No Planned Change • The Fixed Income Hedge was established in September 2009 and is made up of a short holding in U.S. T-bonds. • 4% REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS: No Planned Change • Position made up of mortgage REITs, along with a global real estate fund. • 4% PHYSICAL METALS: Increased • An additional 1% of assets was committed here in early September due to our concern about inflation implications. Gold is now 3.1% of assets and Silver is 0.9%. • 27% CASH EQUIVALENTS: Increased

  15. Global Equity Portfolio Structure

  16. S&P 500 Technical Similarities With The Past

  17. Mid Term Exams

  18. Mid Term Exams

  19. Asset Allocation Principles

  20. Benenefits of Disciplined Tactical Asset Allocation

  21. Tactical Asset Allocation Basics

  22. Tactical Asset Allocation Basics

  23. Tactical Asset Allocation Basics

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