Dr. László JAGER University of West-Hungary Sopron, Hungary

1. Dr. László JAGER University of West-Hungary Sopron, Hungary Some links between environment, innovation and forestry

2. 1. Referendum for a nuclear plant NO YES

3. 2. Referendum for the longest bridge of Central-Europe NO YES price 312.000.000 euro equal to establishment of 80.000 ha new forest

4. Starting point: a simple system start 12.00 end 13.00 growing speed : double in every minute How do they feel 5 minutes before the collapse?

5. A complex system number of possible positions: 9.49*1053 mass of the Earth: 5,97 *1024 kg

6. An even more complex system Forecast: 1 day 5 days 2 week 90% 60% 20% 10 years ?

7. The risk function =100/(f4*100)+f3+f2+f1

9. Environmental factors: • Sustainable development • Waste • Noise • Air pollution • Water • Nature and biodiversity • Soil protection • Climate change • changes • unpredictable • random • fast • risk • adaptation • innovation

10. Some facts of environmental features

11. Some facts of environmental features http://shpud.com/myths.html

12. Some environmentalfacts

13. The balance of the world? Tree and human strategies in a changing world

14. Adaptation to changing environmental factors tree level population level ecosystem level

15. Adaptation to changing environmental factors population level

16. Adaptation on the level of the ecosystem different species strategies oak birch adaptation for sudden changes?

17. Adaptation on the level of the ecosystem human strategies.....

18. The situation is risky but I can handle it

19. Up to now the situation is not too bad...

20. Positive outcomes of global warming? The previous chapters have shown that global warming would,in all probability, produce gains for most Americans. Somewhathigher temperatures would improve health, cut death rates, facilitate transportation, reduce heating bills, and help satisfy people’s tastefor warm weather. The major costs would come from higher sealevels and an increase in smog, which rises when temperatures climb.In most cases, those undesirable side effects could be mitigated atreasonable cost. From an American point of view, spending anythingto reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases is unwarranted.

21. Anticipation of the behaviour of - mankind – global level - countries - single human beings

22. The global scale

23. Kyoto protocol

24. Kyoto protocol

25. Kyoto protocol

26. How much will the Kyoto Protocol reduce emissions? Data Sources: United States Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook, 1998 and 1999.

27. Carbon trade mechanism EU ETS - The European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is a mandatory compliance programme for large emitters in the 25 European Union Member States, making it the largest corporate emissions trading scheme in the world. CDM - The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) creates credits Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) from emission abatement projects in developing countries.  CERs can be used for compliance in the EU ETS and other national schemes, such as Canada and Japan. JI - Joint Implementation (JI) creates credits - Emission Reduction Units (ERUs) - from projects in developed countries that are signatories to the Kyoto Protocol.  In practise most JI activity happens in the former CIS (USSR). National Schemes - There are local domestic schemes for trading carbon in many countries, including the USA, UK, Canada, New Zealand and Japan.

29. Carbon trade mechanism in practice wonderful theory + market failure

30. Carbon trade mechanism – the business model

32. price of the co2 in everyday life

33. price of the co2 in everyday life

34. Global warming and forests

35. Forest activities

36. Products

37. What are you expectations for the future? 1938 2007 greatest risk factors: external factors nuclear war bird flu global warming earthquakes internal factors