Volcano Observatory Best Practices Workshop: Near-term forecasting

1. Volcano Observatory Best Practices Workshop:Near-term forecasting Erice, Italy 11-15 September 2011

2. Purpose • To learn from each other: successes and failures; what works and what doesn’t. • To develop a guide to what practices are most likely to be effective. • To establish more regular communication among observatories. • To create a stronger international voice for volcano observatories in volcano risk mitigation through strengthening of WOVO.

3. Why here and now? • Recent eruptions (Eyjafjallajokal, Merapi, Grimsvotn, Cordon de Caulle/Puyehue) highlight volcano risk as an international problem, suggesting the need for a more internationally integrated approach. • Interest for global experience-sharing among observatory scientists, of a sort that is difficult to accomplish at scientific meetings. • Growing complexity and cost of modern volcano-monitoring and hazard communication, precluding a go-it-alone approach. • Availability of an ideal venue, Erice, for an in-depth discussion.

4. Expected or potential benefits • Improved performance of national volcano hazard programs. • Greater recognition, at both the national and international levels, of the importance of volcano observatories. • Reduction in development and implementation costs for new models, techniques, and instrumentation. • For discussion: Rapid global dissemination of warnings that have international implications.

5. What comes next? • Writing and publication of a document representing our consensus on best practices in short-term forecasting. • This meeting is a “proof of concept experiment”. If successful, this can begin a series on best practices workshops in important areas such as monitoring instrumentation, risk analysis, hazard communication, eruption modeling, etc. 1841 2004